PRESIDENT Boris Yeltsin is likely to win the second round of Russia's presidential elections. But which Mr Yeltsin will be sworn in by the Chief Justice and blessed by the Patriarch of Moscow and all the Russias when the current political process works itself out?
The cover of the most current issue of that estimable magazine The Economist available in Moscow bears a statesmanlike picture of Boris Yeltsin against the white blue and red background of the Russian tricolour. The caption reads: "The only man for Russia."
In its way, the statement is reminiscent of the attitude of the Russian media itself which has backed Mr Yeltsin to such an extent that international observers, while agreeing that the actual logistics of the voting in the presidential election have been "free and fair", have expressed grave reservations about the way the campaign was conducted.
Mr Yeltsin has been portrayed throughout as the hero of the piece almost to the exclusion of all other candidates. But there is a darker side; to the picture, as The Economist also knows, if one is to judge from its cover in January, 1995, which pictured Mr Yeltsin against a black background with the caption: "The wrong man for Russia."
In Moscow, one of the most repeated political anecdotes of the election campaign has pictured Mr Yeltsin on the hustings talking to an ordinary representative of the electorate. "Boris Nikolayevich, what will happen if you win the elections?" The president replies: "Ivan Ivanovich, then you will have a brand new President Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin."
But, asks the citizen timidly: "What will happen if you don't win the elections?" Breathing deeply for a moment the great bear of a man says: "Then, Ivan Ivanovich, you will have the same old President Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin."
So, assuming that those opposed to communism, who form the majority of Russia's electorate, will rally round him as the "best worst candidate" in the second round, and it is a big assumption, which Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin will Russia get?
THE narrow margin by which he led in the first round, and his ability to capture the votes of little over one third of the electorate which went to the polls, despite all the panoply of the state behind him, should finally convey the message that things cannot simply be allowed to drift in the direction of criminality and corruption as they have done over the past couple of years. A "brand new President Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin" is, needed for Russia and, perhaps even more importantly, a brand new circle of intimate advisers is needed 0 badly still.
Permanent observers of the Russian scene have detected that the anti-Yeltsin vote, which reached 65 per cent on Sunday, has been prompted not only by the well worn analyses which proclaim the hardship endured by Russians in the move to market economics, the dismay at the war in Chechnya and the loss of Russia's great power status.
Russian's talk not of the country's status as a great power but of "Russia's Greatness". This can mean its old imperial ambitions of course, but there is a growing realisation that the loss of "greatness" in many minds concerns the country's collapse, into a moral abyss in which anything goes as far as corrupt practice is concerned. Most Russians want to live in what they somewhat naively describe as "the civilised world". They are talking in fact of the loss of the "Russian Soul".
The candidate which, represented that point of view most forcefully in the campaign is the man Mr Yeltsin must now deal with if he wants to make sure he stays in the Kremlin.
General Alexander Lebed did better than anyone expected, outvoting the liberal Mr Grigory Yavlinsky and the madcap nationalist Mr Vladimir Zhirinovsky to take third place with almost 15 per cent of the vote. His appeals on television for law and order, decent behaviour in government and reforms of the army, struck a chord with the electorate which was as deep as his own bass voice.
IT IS on that final point of Gen Lebed's that Mr Yeltsin will be forced to make his most difficult choice. Up to now he has rewarded loyalty before performance and his defence minister, Gen Pavel Grachev, has remained in office despite allegations of corruption, complicity in the murder of a journalist and the debacle of Chechnya.
The first thing Gen Lebed is likely to ask for in negotiations with Mr Yeltsin in the coming days is Gen Grachev's head on a plate. And if he wants the necessary support Mr Yeltsin will have to comply.
The seedier members of Yeltsin's entourage will fight like hell to stay on and Gen Lebed could be a constant thorn in their side. He is likely to be offered the post of deputy prime minister in charge of the "power ministries" which run the armed forces and security services.
As for the communist leader, Mr Gennady Zyuganov, the arithmetic looks to be against his chance of success. However, Mr Yeltsin is 14 years older than his rival. His health has not been the best. He may not be able to keep up the hectic campaign much longer. He may run out of promises to offer the electorate and there is now time for the Chechen war to erupt again, either by accident or by the design of some officers who hanker after the old ways.
A week may be a long time in Western politics; in Russia the month between the first and second rounds of the election cold prove to be an eternity.
