As OF last week, Mary McAleese was well ahead of her competitors in the race for the Park. Mary Banotti and Adi Roche were running neck and neck, and Dana - Rosemary Scallon - was bringing up the rear, according to an Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.

The last-minute nomination of Derek Nally, as the only male contender, has complicated matters somewhat and it will focus attention on the delicate harmonies of proportional representation. For the single transferable vote has come into its own during the past two years as Fianna Fail awoke to its potential and fashioned two by-election victories and its participation in the present minority Coalition Government from Independent and crossparty support.

Gone are the days of the Fianna Fail "plumper" vote and of an "us against the rest" mentality that was a by-product of its pre-1989 "core value" of single-party government. In the new climate of coalition arrangements, the party campaigns vigorously for second and third preference votes and makes no excuses when it reaches across party boundaries for approval.

Because of this sea-change within the party, it would be an error to compare the higher first preference support that Brian Lenihan attracted during the 1990 presidential election campaign with Ms McAleese's performance. On that occasion, the transfer of votes between Fine Gael and the Labour Party was much more disciplined and eventually elected Mrs Robinson. This time, because of Fianna Fail's active utilisation of PR and the soft-focus nature of the various campaigns, Mary McAleese stands the best chance of being elected as Ireland's first citizen.

According to the poll figures, Ms McAleese is comfortably ahead of her competitors with 35 per cent of the vote. Mary Banotti comes second with 23 per cent; Adi Roche is marginally behind with 22 per cent and Dana attracts 7 per cent. Some 13 per cent of those questioned were undecided.

Mr Nally's last-minute nomination will change those figures. But just how and to what extent remains to be seen. He will certainly attract the misogynist vote. But, apart from that, his solid record of personal courage in support of high policing standards and his subsequent public service as head of Victim Support makes him a candidate of worth. The main concern of the Dail parties, however, will be to establish the likely transfer pattern of Mr Nally's votes and whether they will favour Ms McAleese, Ms Roche or Ms Banotti.

With four weeks to go until election day, the campaigns of the various parties are only now taking shape. And there is an unprecedented amount of cross-party support for all the candidates. Not only does the electorate want a President who is seen to be independent of political parties; the voters appear ready to vote against their own parties' nominees to secure that result.

Mary McAleese attracts only 51 per cent of the Fianna Fail vote, as against 56 per cent from the Progressive Democrats. But she attracts 22 per cent of Fine Gael voters and 15 per cent from Labour. She is strongest in Leinster, with 40 per cent of the vote, and weakest in Dublin with 31 per cent. Her most committed supporters are over the age of 50.

Mary Banotti, with 49 per cent of Fine Gael support, reaches out for 27 per cent Labour support; 22 per cent of Progressive Democrats and 12 per cent of Fianna Fail. Her greatest level of support is in Dublin, with 33 per cent of the vote and she is weakest in Munster at 18 per cent. Support is strongest in the middle-class, 35-65 age group.

Adi Roche, as an outside candidate, attracts only 42 per cent of Labour voters, but she takes 22 per cent from the Progressive Democrats, 21 per cent from Fianna Fail and 18 per cent from Fine Gael. She is strongest in Munster at 33 per cent of the vote and weakest in Dublin at 15 per cent. Her fans are clustered most strongly in the 18-34 age group.

Support for Dana is fairly evenly spread among the three largest parties, ranging from 8 per cent in Labour, to 6 per cent in Fianna Fail and 5 per cent in Fine Gael. Connacht-Ulster is her strongest area with 13 per cent of the vote and she is weakest in Dublin and Leinster at 5 per cent. Strongest support comes from the 65-year-and-over age group.

On the basis of these figures, the real fight of this election will be between Ms Banotti and Ms Roche as they attempt to remain in the race until the final count, when they would hope to challenge Ms McAleese.

The political fortunes of Bertie Ahern, John Bruton and Dick Spring are intimately tied up in this contest. Having permitted his parliamentary party to choose Ms McAleese over the former Taoiseach and party leader, Albert Reynolds, a clear win is the only outcome that will settle Fianna Fail and allow Mr Ahern to see off his critics. Mr Bruton is understandably anxious to avoid a repetition of 1990, when Fine Gael's candidate was relegated to third place and Alan Dukes suffered an assault on his leadership. And Mr Spring dreams of the glory days when Labour's candidate became President and the party embarked on a period of influence and growth.

But this is a different year; different society. The liberal agenda has been largely absorbed over the past seven years. Contraception, homosexuality, divorce and abortion are yesterday's issues. But, in a country that is rapidly growing rich, questions are being asked about the sharing of wealth and about ethical standards in public life.

In that regard, the McCracken report on payments to politicians from Dunnes Stores appears to have opened many eyes. And there is a public determination that standards must change. A full examination of the Ansbacher accounts by the Moriarty Tribunal is demanded by 79 per cent of the electorate, with 74 per cent support for that course of action within Fianna Fail and 89 per cent within the Progressive Democrats.

The public is also insistent that the payment of £30,000 to Ray Burke should be looked at by the Moriarty Tribunal. Some 67 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters favour this course of action and the figure rises to 78 per cent within the Progressive Democrats. Even more damning from the coalition Government's point of view is the finding that 73 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters do not believe Mr Burke's explanation and this figure rises to 78 per cent among Progressive Democrats.

Should the coalition Government's handling of this issue polarise the political parties in the weeks ahead and become an issue in the presidential election campaign, anything could happen.