When Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, the Danish Prime Minister, decided five months ago to call a referendum on joining the euro, it was never intended to be a gamble.
The Danish economy was healthy, industrial production was booming and unemployment had halved from double figures to about 5 per cent. In a country that has always shown a distinct inclination towards Euro-scepticism, there was a small majority in all the polls in favour of joining the single currency. The moment seemed too good to miss. That was in March. With less than six weeks to go before the voters must decide, on September 28th, the result is far too close to call.
Even by May, the polls were showing a lead for a No vote. Now, two polls say Yes and the others say No, but the differences are well within the normal margin of error, with many voters still undecided.
Memories have been revived of Denmark's Maastricht referendum in June 1992 when the Danes refused to ratify the treaty laying the foundations of the single currency. The decision brought political progress in the European Union to a standstill for a year, while the Danish government negotiated a special deal, including an opt-out from the euro. "I think we can do it again," says Jens-Peter Bonde, a member of the European Parliament and leader of the June Movement campaigning for a No vote. "That is what we are hoping for."
The political consequences of a Danish No could be dramatic, both in Denmark and the wider EU. It would probably stop the Swedish government going ahead with its tentative moves towards a referendum of its own on euro-membership. It would make the task of Mr Tony Blair in overcoming the anti-euro majority in the UK far harder. It could also further undermine international confidence in the currency.
A No vote could also greatly complicate the negotiations on a new EU treaty, supposed to be finalised at the Nice summit in December.
"If we get a No on September 28th, Denmark may well be tempted to be bloody-minded at Nice," says Lykke Friis, senior research fellow at the Danish Institute for International Relations.
That in turn could affect the EU's enlargement negotiations over the admission of countries from eastern Europe. Other EU members, such as France, see a positive outcome to Nice as an essential condition for widening EU membership.
By now, the Yes campaign ought to be way out in front. It includes all the main political parties of the centre - the ruling Social Democrats and Social Liberals, and the opposition Liberals, Conservatives and Centre Democrats. Ranged against them is an uneasy coalition of the far-left and nationalist right.
The Yes campaign is also backed by almost the entire Danish business establishment, a majority of trade unions and most of the media. Yet the last Gallup poll last month showed a No lead of 46 to 42 per cent, while TV2's Megafon poll reported at the weekend 45 to 42 per cent in the same direction.
"So far, we have obviously been inadequate in telling them of the advantages of joining the euro," says Klaus Hestbaek Norskov, chief consultant on EU affairs at Dansk Industri, the Danish employers' federation.
This will be the Danes' sixth European referendum since 1972, when they voted to join the then Common Market. "Eighty per cent of Danes are in favour of the common market, and 80 per cent are in favour of closer co-operation," says Mr Bonde. "But when you talk of making a state in Brussels, it is 80 per cent the other way."
Members of Dansk Industri are asking for more information on the political importance of the single currency, and not just its economic advantages, according to Mr Norskov. "It is about Denmark and Europe," he says. "We say that as well. But it is so unpredictable, the last five days could decide it."
