WILL the Government survive through 1997? No. It would be technically possible to defer a general election into 1998, but the Rainbow Coalition will dissolve in 1997. The three week general election campaign may fall in February March, May June or October November and recent speculation suggests a spring or autumn election.

Fine Gael believes that short, dark campaigning days would neutralise Fianna Fail's local organisational advantage. And party planners will depend on John Bruton to out perform Bertie Ahern in a television dominated canvass.

Fianna Fail is convinced the Coalition will go to the country sooner - rather than later, and is preparing for a snap election in February March.

But it seems clear the public's political choice will consist of a loose, non binding Fianna Fail Progressive Democrats alliance or a flexible arrangement involving Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left.

By now, however, the electorate should be wise enough 19 regard such promotions with a grain of salt.

In 1989 the PDs went into the election arm in arm with Fine Gael and ended locked in the embrace of Fianna Fail.

And in 1992, in spite of John Bruton's rainbow offer, Dick Spring cut a deal with Albert Reynolds. The rainbow finally happened in 1994, but with Democratic Left, rather than the PDs, as the third partner. The political shift was to centre left, rather than to centre right, and it would take a significant breakthrough by the PDs to reverse that trend.

What about Northern Ireland?

A British general election, expected in March, is likely to delay political progress in Northern Ireland. The Ulster Unionists, led by David Trimble, have been reluctant to engage fully in the Stormont talks because of the election threat posed to them by Ian Paisley's DUP and Robert McCartney's UKUP.

Agreement on any arms decommissioning compromise, which would allow Sinn Fein to attend negotiations, would expose the UUP to pre election charges of a "sell out".

In Britain, John Major's vulnerability to similar charges from his own back benches has been amplified by his minority government's dependence on the votes of Ulster Unionists. And the Government here has practically given up on a pre election initiative.

In those circumstances, the only action likely to break new political ground would be an IRA ceasefire. Unfortunately, republicans are not expected to take such a bold initiative. Such a departure would place unionist politicians and John Major at a rare disadvantage. And it would clear the ground for an early, constructive relationship with any incoming Labour Party government under Tony Blair.

On the domestic front, it could also facilitate a pre election pact with the SDLP and allow Sinn Fein to gain a democratic foothold at Westminster.

But the IRA's past behaviour points to the continuation of a sporadic bombing campaign in Britain and Northern Ireland to pressurise the British. Such a tactic would be seriously counterproductive. It would encourage any incoming government in particular one led by Mr Blair, to prove its anti terrorist credentials to the British public.

If that happened, the whole peace process" could unravel An IRA ceasefire, along with Sinn Fein's involvement in talks - even allowing for full blooded US and Irish Government support - could be pushed back to autumn.

What are the pitfalls ahead?

Crime, drugs, prisons and the role of the Garda are certain to remain at the top of the political agenda in an election year. And given the capacity of things to go wrong within the Department of Justice, an accident prone Nora Owen is sure to stay in the spotlight.

The rising incidence of BSE and its impact on beef and live cattle exports will be a matter of continuing concern although the wave of consumer resistance may be receding committee to investigate the payment of political and public figures by Ben Dunne may give way to a full judicial inquiry. But no matter what falls out of that particular closet, the symbiotic relationship between big business and politics will probably remain a grey area.

The passage of an Electoral Bill, to identify donations to parties of more than £4,000 and to individuals of more than £500, should keep the lid on things.

One other issue of note the first Irish divorces in more than 70 years will be granted by the courts with unpredictable political consequences.

WHAT about the economic future?

When the last election was held, in 1992 interest rates were rocketing and the pound was under ferocious pressure within the EMU. Albert Reynolds bombed out, losing 10 seats for Fianna Fail this time, everything is blooming for the Government. An inflation rate of less than 2 per cent; low interest rates; economic growth of 6 to 7 per cent; a capacity tourist trade; the live register down by 24,000 in three months; and record jobs growth.

Add to that bounty a new 39 month national wage agreement which promises continuing industrial peace; a predicted GDP growth rate of 5 per cent to the turn of the century; and the stability promised by a common European currency; and the Government parties are smiling.

If Clinton's winning political soundbite of 1992 - "It's the economy, stupid" - develops an Irish resonance, there will be lively months ahead. And Ruairi Quinn will kick things off in the election campaign with a tax cutting Budget in January.

On the opposition benches, Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney will have their work cut out to counter the planned economic offensive. But on the basis of opinion poll findings, they are favoured to form the next government.