Whisper it gently. But it does seem probable that Ireland is about to have its busiest run at the Oscars. As many as six acting nominations could come our way. The record for most nominations for an Irish film may be within grasp. And there is the real possibility – I’m going for “probability” – of the first nomination in best international film for an Irish-language picture.
Colm Bairéad’s An Cailín Ciúin (The Quiet Girl) began its journey by becoming the first feature in the native tongue to play Berlin Film Festival. Its reputation soared so high that, when the 15-strong shortlist for this year’s Academy Award for best international film was read out, before Christmas, few were surprised to hear its name. That could have been that. But the consistent good word and its appearance on endless best-of-2022 lists have edged it into the probable top five.
This is not The Irish Times wrapping itself in the flag. The Hollywood Reporter and Variety are also predicting it to score a nomination. But this category has never been more competitive. There are 10 films with an excellent chance of making the list. What fails? Could they really boot Belgium’s Close, beloved at Cannes, or Mexico’s Bardo, from the Oscar regular Alejandro González Iñárritu? Well, last week’s Bafta nominations did just that to both. The tension for the An Cailín Ciúin team will be increased by the results being read out in alphabetical order – their film begins with a “Q” as far as the US is concerned.
It looks as if four actors will land from Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin: Colin Farrell for best actor, Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson for best supporting actor and Kerry Condon for best supporting actress. All have been shortlisted for Baftas, Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild awards. Any one of those not scoring would be a shocker. Paul Mescal finds himself in the extraordinary position – unimaginable a few months ago – of competing with none other than Tom Cruise for an apparently vacant fifth spot in best actor. The enormous Top Gun: Maverick and Charlotte Wells’s quiet, heartbreaking Aftersun debuted at Cannes. The Cruise movie went on to save the box office. Aftersun, featuring Mescal as a troubled Scottish dad, ended 2022 as the most critically lauded film of the year. Quite a contest.
There is also a slim chance of Jessie Buckley making it into the best-supporting-actress race for Sarah Polley’s Women Talking. That film, a gruelling study of sexual abuse in a Mennonite community, was much fancied early on, but it has underperformed at Bafta and the Golden Globes. It got an “ensemble” nod from SAG, but no individual actors scored a nomination. That said, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences likes the Kerry woman. Last year, to some surprise, she made it in for The Lost Daughter. So don’t count her out.
At any rate, it seems highly probable the record for most Irish acting nominations in one year will be broken. That’s a slippery statistic. There have been two on several occasions – most recently last year when Buckley and Ciarán Hinds were in the corral. If you include Daniel Day-Lewis, who was not yet a citizen, there were three in 1989. We’re betting on five below.
The Banshees of Inisherin could break a record held jointly by Belfast and In the Name of the Father. No Irish film to this point has scored more than their seven mentions. We’re betting Banshees will land somewhere in that area. Interest from the editing or the music branch may nudge it higher.
The team from Cartoon Saloon, in Kilkenny, are not out of it for best animated feature. Every one of their four full-length releases has scored in that race, but the excellent My Father’s Dragon failed to land in even Bafta’s longlist. That’s a worrying sign.
Away from the national hoopla, we’re looking at a best-picture race between three front runners: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once and – still, just about – Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans. That last film is in a weird place. It won the Golden Globe for best drama and then, to some astonishment, managed only a screenplay nomination from Bafta. It is not inconceivable that Top Gun: Maverick could win, but it is rare for a picture to take the prize without competing seriously in acting or writing races (which it won’t).
Potential winners in the acting categories are firming up, but there is room for all kinds of churn in the lower reaches. As ever, there will be at least one stunner. Might Adam Sandler take the spot we have pencilled in for either Mescal or Cruise? Stranger things have happened. After all, the Screen Actors Guild mentioned the SandMan for Hustle. After its stunning performance at the Baftas – taking more nominations than any film since The King’s Speech – could the latest version of All Quiet on the Western Front break into the best-picture race? It now looks like Netflix’s chance there.
Let the derby commence.
DONALD CLARKE’S OSCAR-NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR 2023
Listed in order of probability
Best picture
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- The Fabelmans
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Elvis
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- The Whale
- Women Talking
The top seven seem more or less certain. Then all chaos breaks loose. All Quiet on the Western Front looks to be the chance for a Netflix film and a film not in English. Women Talking should just about hold on. The Whale? Many hate it. But what else? Maybe RRR, despite a duck egg at the Bafta nominations.
Best director
- Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
- Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Todd Field (Tár)
- Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Despite that Bafta rout, Spielberg is surely safe. Also the other two potential best-picture winners. Field should be okay for a real auteur job. Fifth spot could also go to the moneymakers Joseph Kosinski, for Top Gun: Maverick, or James Cameron, for Avatar: The Way of Water. No women? Controversial.
Best actor
- Austin Butler (Elvis)
- Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
- Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Bill Nighy (Living)
- Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
If there were six we’d just add Tom Cruise and feel confident that was that. The winner surely comes from Butler, Fraser and Farrell. Fraser is a great back-from-obscurity story.
Best actress
- Cate Blanchett (Tár)
- Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
- Viola Davis (The Woman King)
- Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Could the late actor-driven campaign for Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie edge that much-admired actor into the five? It’s possible. Only Blanchett and Yeoh seem nailed down.
Best supporting actor
- Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
- Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Eddie Redmayne in ... The What Now? Well, those bottom two could go anywhere – Paul Dano in The Fabelmans is also in with a shot – and Redmayne has, apparently, been charming all of Los Angeles. Ke Huy Quan is close to unbeatable.
Best supporting actress
- Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Hong Chau (The Whale)
- Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
All kinds of possibilities here. Might the voters push Michelle Williams into supporting rather than lead? They can do that. Dolly de Leon for Triangle of Sadness and Jessie Buckley waiting on the bubble.
Best adapted screenplay
- Women Talking
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
- Living
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- The Whale
Looks like the hope for the once much-fancied Women Talking. It is fortunate to be competing in an otherwise iffy year for this category.
Best original screenplay
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Tár
- The Fabelmans
- Triangle of Sadness
Good chance of a win for Martin McDonagh at the top. The leading four look set to battle it out. A chance for Aftersun to sneak in over Triangle of Sadness? Or Elvis?
Best animated feature
- Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Turning Red
- Marcell the Shell with Shoes On
- Wendell & Wild
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Cartoon Saloon’s My Father’s Dragon is not out of it. But missing in the Bafta longlist was a shocker (and embarrassing for the British Academy of Film and Television Arts). Nothing is beating Pinocchio.
Best documentary feature
- All That Breathes
- All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
- Fire of Love
- Moonage Daydream
- Navalny
After winning the Golden Lion at Venice, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed should be a shoo-in for the Oscar. But the voters in this section are famously skittish. Who knows?
Best international feature
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Close
- Decision to Leave
- An Cailín Ciúin
- Argentina, 1985
Or EO, Bardo, Saint Omer, Holy Spider or Corsage. Sorry, home team. But this race is a killer. Any of those 10 films could land. Only All Quiet on the Western Front seems nailed down.
