It's early for Oscarology, but here are 10 reasons why 'The Help' will win best picture

It might seem premature to call the Oscar winner four months ahead of the ceremony and before some of the other contenders have…

It might seem premature to call the Oscar winner four months ahead of the ceremony and before some of the other contenders have been released . . . but that isn't stopping TARA BRADYfrom backing the film about race relations to go all the way

INDUSTRY watchers call it Hurricane Help, and nobody saw it coming. Who knew that The Help, an old-fashioned, multigenerational women's picture chronicling the complicated relationships between African-American nannies and their white charges, could top the US box office for three weeks running?

Pundits didn’t think there was a market for movies set in Jackson, Mississippi, during the early 1960s. The public has proved them wrong to the tune of $175 million (€127 million) and counting. Meanwhile, Kathryn Stockett’s source novel continues to sell by the forest. But will the Academy acknowledge the people’s choice for Best Film? We can think of 10 good reasons why they just might.

1 The little movie that could

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It’s a miracle it got made at all. Writer-director Tate Taylor had never helmed a feature film when he optioned his friend Kitty’s unpublished manuscript. “I’ve been friends with Kathryn Stockett since we were five,” says Taylor. “The book had no representation at the time I adapted it. So when it became a bestseller and the studio got involved, it was mine and I wasn’t letting it go.”

2 And the Oscar goes to

The film’s dual protagonist structure gives the Academy two choices for best actress in Viola Davis and Emma Stone. The supporting actress slot yields even more options: Jessica Chastain, Bryce Dallas Howard and Octavia Spencer all put in dazzling and sizeable turns. Smaller, starrier roles occupied by Alison Janney and Sissy Spacek could also be in the reckoning. It’s a nomination bonanza that could well spark an Oscar sweep.

3 It’s all about the Benjamins

Having plumped for The Hurt Lockertwo years ago, the Academy needs to reconnect with audiences. That film took less than $18 million at the American box office. Earlier this year The King's Speech, which boasted a US take of $135 million, was a far more popular choice. The Help, however, has already outperformed The King's Speechstateside. And that was in September, a traditional graveyard month at the box office. The punters have spoken.

4 History has been made here tonight

“I was raised by two women,” says Taylor. “My mother and an African-American woman called Carol-Lee. I grew up in Jackson, Mississippi. I grew up knowing these women, and I still do. The minute I read Kathryn’s book I was compelled to tell this story. This is the story of how these women raised us without anyone seeing them.”

5 Hooray for Hollywood!

Did somebody say Crash? The Helpis exactly the kind of film Hollywood loves to acknowledge. It's uplifting but not frivolous. It's melodramatic but fun. The movie also gives a presence to an unseen minority and presents race relations that are complicated but not too fraught.

“The “black maid” may be a cliche,” notes Movieline.com critic Stephanie Zacharek, “but when was the last time we saw a story told from her point of view?”

6 Form

September, the film industry has decided, is the season for women-oriented literary adaptations. With this in mind, The Helphas already won the biggest competition of all: the box office showdown. The English-set romance One Day, its supposed nearest rival, limped out of US cinemas with a comparatively paltry $13 million (€9.5 million). Don't mess with the south, y'all.

7The O factor

Never underestimate the power of the book club. Oprah’s reading group took on Kathryn Stockett’s book last March, and Winfrey couldn’t praise the tome highly enough. Oscarologists are already calling the film “Oprah’s underdog”.

8 Rivals

Last year the Academy was spoiled for choice, but 2012 is trickier terrain. Martin Scorsese's Hugois a kid's film. Terrence Malick's The Tree of Lifeis probably too hallucinogenic for Academy tastes. Woody Allen's Midnight in Parisis too slight. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Closelooks awfully corny. The Artistis a silent, black and white picture. Moneyballis a sports movie. You get the idea: the field is narrowing.

9 You’ll laugh, you’ll cry, you’ll buy popcorn

Convention would have it that at 2½ hours, Tate Taylor's adaptation is too long. But the script's great triumph is its deft movement between different characters and tones. There's never a dull moment. A weepie that isn't above a scatological subplot, The Helphas won over soap addicts and critics alike. "An exhilarating gift," says Pete Travers at Rolling Stone.

10 Octavia Spencer

"Octavia and I met on the set of A Time to Die. I was a production assistant and she was a casting assistant," recalls Taylor. "He was Matthew McConaughey's butt double," adds Spencer. "But we both made s**t money." In January 1996, having become fast friends, they headed for the bright lights of Hollywood. "We were going to stake our claim on Tinseltown," laughs Spencer. "But it took a long time."

Having called in his old roommate to play the formidable Minny in The Help, Octavia Spencer – a performer best known for her role in Ugly Bettyand for out-swearing Billy Bob Thornton in Bad Santa– steals every scene she's in.

A hindrance to 'The Help' The films that might stand in its way

So let's suppose that Disney, which landed The Helpwhen it took over DreamWorks, decided it wouldn't go all out for an acquisition over and above its own product. And let's suppose Spielberg, who had just shot Tintin: The Secret of the Unicornand War Horseback to back, is hitting form. If The Helpcan be beaten, these are the likely contenders.

WAR HORSE

Nobody has seen it yet, but the guys in Vegas are quoting 1/10 odds on Steven Spielberg's adaptation of Michael Morpurgo's children's novel. It's got the first World War and a horsey – how could it not make you cry?

THE DESCENDANTS

George Clooney discovers his comatose wife has been having an affair. Alexander Payne's best film since Sidewaysis a heavy favourite at 1/10 with the bookies.

J EDGAR

Clint Eastwood directs Leonardo Di Caprio in this hotly anticipated J Edgar Hoover biopic. Will it be this year's The King's Speech? Or Nixon? Odds stand at 2/11.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO

David Fincher's glossy adaptation of the ubiquitous book stars Rooney Mara and Daniel Craig. Will it be too generic for Oscar? Or might it replicate the success of that big B-movie The Silence of the Lambs?

THE IRON LADY

It's got Meryl Streep as Maggie Thatcher. But little else on paper to recommend it. Still, odds are 13/2.

The Help

opens on Wednesday