DONALD CLARKEon long-range Oscar forecasts
THERE ARE only 346 days until the Oscar ceremony and already . . . Okay, let’s cut the facetious opening short and dive straight into the annual attempt to predict the 2012 Oscars.
Last year's efforts were not an astounding success. True, I suggested that Hailee Steinfeld would receive a nomination for True Gritand that Blue Valentinewould also get an acting nod (though I picked the wrong star). Elsewhere, the column featured a list of disappointments (Peter Weir's The Way Back, Julian Schnabel's Miral), outright disasters (Taylor Hackford's barely seen Love Ranch),and a whole swathe of films that have yet to emerge (Bruce Robinson's The Rum Diary, Lynne Ramsay's We Need to Talk About Kevin, Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life).
So, what's bound to figure next year? Well, one space is already booked. Even if The Iron Ladyturns out to be a roaring turkey, and even if Meryl Streep is revealed to be a white supremacist (admittedly unlikely), the great survivor will still receive a best actress nomination for her portrayal of Margaret Thatcher. One might as well try and predict next February's weather as tip the other acting nominations.
When it comes to the 10 best picture nominees, we are, this year, hampered by the fact that no indie drama broke through at the 2011 Sundance Film Festival. In 2010, both Blue Valentineand Winter's Bonewere already in the frame. So, mists hang around the spot reserved for the "little indie film that could".
Furthermore, another recent "lock" seems far less secure than in previous years. This year's Pixar release is a sequel to the only film from the studio to receive ho-hum notices. Cars 2will have to go some to make it into the final 10.
With those provisos, here is our deranged, totally unreliable tip for the 2012 best picture shortlist.
* War Horse(Steven Spielberg) It's based on a moving play and book. It's about war. It's directed by Stevo.
* The Tree of Life(Terrence Malick) It will, barring disaster, premiere at Cannes. It's an epic. It's directed by a legend.
* Moneyball(Bennett Miller) The baseball drama has a script by recent Oscar champ Aaron Sorkin.
* A Dangerous Method(David Cronenberg) Cronenberg is overdue, and it's about Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung – real people, in other words.
* The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo(David Fincher) They feel a bit guilty about snubbing Fincher this year for best director.
* On the Road(Walter Salles) Yes, it's that On the Road.
* The Ides of March(George Clooney) Unless this political drama is as dodgy as Clooney's Leatherheads.
* Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close(Stephen Daldry) Based on an acclaimed novel. Daldry has received a nomination for each of his first three films.
* The Descendants(Alexander Payne) Payne's first film since the much-garlanded Sideways.
* J Edgar(Clint Eastwood) DiCaprio is J Edgar Hoover. Clint directs. Sounds a dead cert. But remember how Invictusfaltered.
