THE coincidence is unfortunate. Boris Yeltsin's inauguration as the first president of an Russia in the Kremlin today comes almost exactly on the 100th anniversary of the coronation, at the same venue, of Tsar Nicholas II.
At that time, hundreds of people who had gathered to celebrate with free food and drink in the suburb of Khodinka were trampled to death. The poet, Konstantin Belmont, was inspired to write the lines: "He whose reign began at Khodinka will finish on the scaffold."
On this occasion, there will be no celebratory stampede and the fireworks displays and other events planned to mark the occasion are unlikely to impress a population which has grown to regard Russia's brand of democracy with almost total cynicism.
When Mr Yeltsin was sworn in as president of the old Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic (RSFSR) in June, 1991, there were signs that jubilation and rejoicing might be on the horizon. Now, however, Mr Yeltsin faces his presidency in poor health, with the war in Chechnya raging more furiously than ever, with the economy once more showing signs of shakiness, with the shadow of massive corruption still hanging over the administration and with the prospect of yet another constitutional impasse.
The cycle of "calm followed by crisis" which has been evident in Russia over the past five years appears set to enter crisis mode once more.
Since June 29th, Mr Yeltsin has not been seen in public. US Vice President Mr Al Gore, who did meet Mr Yeltsin, said he looked well, but a Neuters reporter who was present at the Barvikha sanatorium on that occasion described Mr Yeltsin as appearing to be seriously ill.
WHATEVER the truth about that occasion, it is certain Mr Yeltsin is not in robust health, and a president whose powers are circumscribed by illness is something which allows the more ambitious and less scrupulous members of the notoriously devious Kremlin entourage to pursue their own aims without restriction.
The postponement by the IMF of a 330 million loan tranche was an attempt to force the Russian government to summon up the political will to collect its taxes. Tax revenues have fallen by 30 per cent in cash terms since 1993.
The IMF also wants new taxes introduced and an end to sweetheart deals for those with high political connections.
At present, a major scandal is raging in Moscow. Mr Boris Fyodorov, former head of the National Sports Fund, survived an assassination attempt in June. The foundation has a sweetheart deal which allows it to collect the excise revenue from alcohol and tobacco imports.
A leading Russian investigative journalist, Mr Alexander Minkin, has published extracts from tape recordings from Mr Fyodorov in which he alleges that vast sums of money were siphoned, with the president's knowledge, into Mr Yeltsin's re election funds.
The Sports Foundation's privileges have been estimated to cost the government £150 million a month in lost revenues at a time when GDP is falling, miners are threatening a national strike starting on August 25th, and the banking sector is in trouble.
The one safeguard against continued corruption in the administration and in the army appeared to be the tough and outspoken Gen Alexander Lebed, who finished third in the initial round of the presidential elections and was drafted into the president's camp as head of the national Security Council, in order to ensure a Yeltsin victory in the second round.
Since his election, however, Mr Yeltsin has acted quickly to cut Gen Lebed down to size. Mr Anatoly Chubais, who supports Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin in his power struggle with Lebed, has been appointed presidential chief of staff.
More seriously, perhaps, Mr Yeltsin has established a defence council, in which the ambitious general has a minor role, as a parallels power structure to the Security Council which Gen Lebed heads.
Mr Chernomyrdin and Gen Lebedare jockeying for position at a time be able to serve out his term. The president's most recent illness, originally portrayed as a "sore throat" which caused him to lose his voice, has been serious enough to have a kept him in a sanatorium for more than a month. A senior aide this week suggested that a further two months' rest was needed.
BUT this rest may not be available as a constitutional crisis is looming over the appointment of a new government. Once again, Mr Zyuganov's Communist Party is set to play a major role. Should it decide to block Mr Yeltsin's nomination of Mr Chernomyrdin as prime minister in the State Duma (Lower House of Parliament), which it dominates, the Communist Party could bring the decision making process to a halt.
The constitution stipulates that should the Duma block the nomination three times, the president is entitled to dissolve parliament. But another clause says the Duma cannot be dissolved in its first year. Legally therefore, Russia could be without a government until December when the Duma celebrates its first birthday.
In order to avoid such a constitutional stalemate, Mr Yeltsin may have to horse trade with Mr Zyuganov, and appoint communists to key ministerial portfolios. The other option, and it has been used before, would be to overthrow the constitution and dissolve parliament by force.
In the longer term, Mr Yeltsin's health presents even greater problems. At 65, he has already exceeded by seven years the average Russian male life expectancy. Should he die in office, the prime minister, currently Mr Chernomyrdin, would take over on the condition that a new presidential election be held within three months.
Should that election take place in circumstances of economic crisis and continued spectacular attacks by Chechen rebels, the outcome would be unpredictable to say the least.
