RUGBY:THE FORECAST is for a drop in temperature from the mid-20s to the high teens, with a better than 50-50 chance of rain in Toulouse on Saturday, but that's where the light relief stops. The holders are about to step into the cauldron that is Le Stadium, where they will be hosted by perhaps the pre-eminent force in European club rugby, in what Michael Cheika yesterday admitted was Leinster's toughest assignment in his five years in charge.
In Guy Noves’ remarkable 15 years at the helm of Stade Toulousain, they have made winning big games and trophies part of their DNA. No club has won as many French championships (17) or as many Heineken Cups (three), but now they have reached the quarter-finals of the former and semis of the latter, they have stated that a record sixth H Cup final and fourth trophy is their “objectif prioritaire”.
Cheika attended Toulouse’s 25-17 win at home to Castres in the French Top 14 and acknowledged they achieved the bare minimum of an eight-point win to secure a home quarter-final, while keeping some powder dry for Leinster.
“Their coach has said that they pretty much prepped all (last) week for the European Cup semi and it was a credit to the players that they were able to win that game of their own accord.
“So I think really – and we said it at the very start – they fancy their chances against us deep down and they’re probably pretty happy they’ve drawn us and they see it as the quickest road to get to Paris.”
Asked whether Toulouse had run into a bit of form lately, Cheika noted dryly: “I suppose they’ve been in form for the last 20 years, haven’t they?”
Cheika is clearly revelling in the prospect of taking on Toulouse in their secondary backyard, ie the 35,000-capacity Toulouse FC, where the only side to beat them in 14 attempts was Leinster when they memorably toppled les rouges et noirs 41-35 in the quarter-finals four years ago.
But compared to then, Cheika believes Yannick Bru’s advent to the position of forwards coach and clever re-enforcements have made them stronger up front, “and their programme is very profiled. Their backrow for example, there’s a strict ball-carrier, there’s a strict lineout operator, and there’s a strict tight player.”
To that end, the Leinster coach said the combination of their backrow, their choice of Jean-Baptiste Elissalde or David Skrela and the make-up of their back three, where he wouldn’t be surprised to see Maxime Medard return, will given an indication as to how Toulouse intend to play the game.
It was only after their defeat to Connacht last Wednesday that Cheika realised Leinster had been unbeaten in four and a half months, which may have been a timely bolt in some respects.
“We never want to lose a game, mind you, but you gotta wake up to yourself sometimes and say ‘you can always be beaten’. If you bring the wrong attitude to any game of football you’re at risk of getting beaten and I don’t think there’s any fear of us bringing the wrong attitude to this game. You can almost see the determination in guys.”
“I think the experiences of last year will help us because we know what it takes. Not to win; we just know how hard it will be. I think that’s the first thing we’ve got to do, acknowledge exactly this is probably going to be the toughest game we’ve ever played together over the five years. We’ve got to acknowledge that and then get yourself ready for that. And then, once you’re ready for it, there’s a good chance you’re going to perform in a way that gets you into the match, and then if you get a bit of luck too, you might win it.”
Cheika also noted dryly that their sick bay is “occupied at the moment”, and the main medical topic of discussion was the well-being or otherwise of Jonathan Sexton.
“The only way he’ll be playing is if we feel he can complete his job in full. If we have to hide him out the back or something like that, then he won’t be playing. It’s just going to be a matter of him being able to play at 100 per cent. And if he’s confident to do that, he’ll play. If he doesn’t then Shaun will play.”
Leinster’s medical staff “are conservative, at best”, and acknowledging there would be a risk of Sexton fracturing his jaw again, Cheika added: “We’ll keep our eye on everything. Put it this way, we’re not desperate. I’ve got a lot of confidence in Shaun Berne. It’s like any situation. We analyse all the possible risks and the ramifications, and it’s a bit like a risk assessment. Like, if this player is carrying an injury and we carry him into the game what are the possible outcomes? Is it worth it? Player safety? For the team?
“There’s no point a player going on there and coming off after one minute. That doesn’t do much for you.”
Save for a possible enforced change at outhalf, the starting team is liable to be the same as that which kicked off against Clermont. If Sexton is ruled out, it makes the return of Rob Kearney and his huge left boot all the more important.
Kearney a better bet than Sexton
BOTH ROB Kearney (strained ankle ligaments) and Jonathan Sexton (fractured jaw) were named yesterday in an expanded Leinster squad of 27. Neither Kearney nor Sexton have featured since the 29-28 quarter-final win over Clermont, and the likelihood of Kearney making the cut for Saturday is far stronger. He resumed training yesterday, whereas Sexton is still sidelined and will be given until tomorrow or Friday to prove his well-being.
There are recalls for Shane Horgan (Leinster's most experienced Heineken Cup performer with 77 appearances), Gordon D'Arcy and Isa Nacewa – none of whom have featured since the win over the Ospreys three weeks ago – while Brian O'Driscoll, Eoin Reddan and nine forwards who haven't featured since the Connacht defeat last Wednesday are also re-instated. However, Fergus McFadden (calf) and Girvan Dempsey (neck) remain doubtful.
