Hope in the air but also fear of disaster

There is a quickening sense of possibility in the Northern air but it is accompanied as always by the fear of disaster

There is a quickening sense of possibility in the Northern air but it is accompanied as always by the fear of disaster. If comings and goings can make a peace process, there is no lack of them.

The UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, made a high-profile visit to the Labour conference in Brighton, although the note he struck was a pessimistic one. Other Northern politicians also attended, including a Sinn Fein group which could be seen in the audience at a fringe meeting in the same Grand Hotel that IRA colleagues blew up 13 years ago.

This weekend Mr Trimble visits the US, accompanied by his party colleagues Mr John Taylor and Mr Jeffrey Donaldson. It is considered highly likely they will be received in the White House by President Clinton, who will be giving yet another indication of his warm support for the peace process.

The talks proper begin at Stormont's Castle Buildings on Tuesday. There is speculation about a visit by Mr Tony Blair the week after next but it was not clear whether he would be coming specifically to attend the talks or for a more general visit. There is speculation also about a visit by the Taoiseach.

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The week has been dominated by last Monday night's rally at the Ulster Hall where the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Robert McCartney warned some 1,500 supporters against a sellout of the Union.

Hostilities continued afterwards with Dr Paisley alleging a loyalist paramilitary plot to kill him and loyalist leaders pouring scorn on his claims.

The Ulster Democratic Party, political wing of the Ulster Defence Association, plans a major rally for Sunday week in Belfast city centre, to mark the third anniversary of the loyalist ceasefire. The UDP will be out to prove that its following surpasses Dr Paisley's. The battle for the streets is on again in Northern Ireland.

Efforts by the Alliance Party to have TV cameras admitted to the talks have been defeated. The Ulster Unionists and the SDLP were both against the idea, according to reports. Even the notion of a few minutes of filming was turned down.

UUP sources were worried about "pictures taken from a particular angle that puts you right up next to the Shinners".

There was some wonderment in Northern political circles at the pronationalist noises made by the Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, in her conference speech at Brighton. At a time when David Trimble is under threat from hardliners inside and outside the party, some observers found it odd that she should be removing internment from the statute book and stressing the issue of discrimination against Catholics.

It appears, however, that there was some discomfort, or even mild alarm, on the republican side following reports of remarks made by Mr Ray Burke in the US that Sinn Fein would settle for something less than a united Ireland in the Stormont talks. The Minister said later in the Dail that he had not discussed the issue with Sinn Fein. Dr Mowlam's remarks at Brighton may also have been an attempt to allay republican fears.

Some supporters of the peace process have a recurring nightmare in which a settlement package is put to a referendum but is opposed by an unholy alliance of Paisleyites and republicans. Since there would be a referendum in the Republic on the same day, the possibility arises of a "No" vote in the North and a "Yes" south of the Border.

A senior Sinn Fein member confessed privately he did not know what the implications of such a position would be.

Speaking on consent at a fringe meeting in Brighton, Dr Mowlam said it was agreed there would be two referendums "and it will be a majority in the North that decides the way forward . . . the bottom line is: majority in the North". But broader consensus was needed to move the process forward with real success and she was working to achieve that.

SDLP sources said that a rejection of a settlement in a Northern Ireland referendum would have to be accepted: "We would hope it will not happen." Then it would be back to the negotiating table.

Since republicans do not recognise Northern Ireland as a legitimate entity, it follows that, for them, the overall head-count on the whole island would have to have primacy. Since unionists regard the Republic as a foreign state, the Southern referendum would have no relevance for them, except perhaps for getting rid of the territorial claim in Articles 2 and 3 of the Irish Constitution.

No doubt these and other issues will be teased out as the talks get into full swing. Everyone was surprised at how smoothly and efficiently this week's meeting of the business committee went. Each of the three strands - internal relations in Northern Ireland; North-South relations; and relations between the two islands - will be discussed next Tuesday.