The Palestinian intifada has finished off a decade of Pax Americana in the Middle East. The uprising has seriously diminished Washington's ability to bring its influence to bear and project its power in the region.
The Pax Americana which emerged from the 40-day Gulf War was based on a new constellation of forces. Arab governments who supported the US-led campaign to drive Iraqi forces from Kuwait - Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Syria - were in the US camp. Those who opposed - Jordan and the Palestinians - were shunned until they aligned themselves with Washington.
The Clinton administration devised a strategy of "dual containment" involving the isolation and sanctioning of the two "rogue" states, Iraq and Iran. Washington beefed up its military presence in the Gulf, establishing a virtual protectorate over the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
The peace process, launched at the international extravaganza at Madrid in October 1991, was the price paid by Washington for Arab support of the war effort. The Arabs expected the process would lead to Israel's withdrawal from virtually all of the West Bank, Gaza and the Golan, and a comprehensive regional peace settlement.
The US political grip on the Arab governments depended on the health of the peace process. But negotiations did not prosper under Israel's Likud government headed by Mr Yitzak Shamir whose strategy was to draw out talks while settling the land. The peace process was in deep difficulty when the Palestinians and Israelis announced in August 1993 in Oslo that they had reached a secret deal.
Although excluded from the negotiations in Norway, Washington celebrated the Oslo agreement as a great triumph and set itself up as sole mediator.
When progress on the Oslo track stalled and negotiations between Syria and Israel collapsed, Washington was blamed as well as Israel. Arab alienation on both the governmental and popular levels gradually eroded Pax Americana.
The first area to suffer was the building of a "new Middle East" involving partnership between Arabs and Israelis. Lack of progress in negotiations, led the Arab states to boycott gatherings attended by Israel. The next step was for Arab governments which had joined the US-sponsored "normalisation" effort and established commercial relations with Israel to freeze ties.
On the heels of last month's emergency Arab summit, Morocco, Tunisia and Oman closed down Israeli offices in their capitals and withdrew staff from Tel Aviv. Qatar and Mauritania are under strong pressure to follow suit. Jordan, which signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994, has not dispatched its newly appointed ambassador to Tel Aviv. Egypt is being asked to recall its mission.
Washington's policy of "dual containment" came under serious challenge in 1997-98 with the election of reformist Iranian president Mr Muhammad Khatami who pursued a policy of reconciliation with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, and the revelation of the humanitarian disaster caused by sanctions in Iraq. Iran has now "normalised" relations with Arab states. Indeed, Tehran has played a key role in convening the November 12th-14th intifada summit of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference.
The punitive sanctions regime imposed on Iraq in 1990 is crumbling. All but three Arab states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Tunisia), Turkey and Iran have restored diplomatic relations with Iraq. Arab governments invited Iraq to the emergency summit in Cairo last month. They are now routinely violating the ban on flights to Baghdad's international airport.
Jordan no longer permits international inspections at Aqaba port of shipments bound for Iraq. In spite of US pressure to cancel his journey, the Jordanian Prime Minister, Mr Ali Abul Ragheb, became the first Arab head of government to visit Baghdad since 1991. Syria is reopening a pipeline across its territory for the export of Iraqi oil.
US policy of playing Arab governments off against each other has failed. The intifada has, for the time being, unified the Arabs and rallied the Islamic world in defence of the Palestinian people and Muslim holy places in Jerusalem.
After the attack on the USS Cole in Aden which killed 17 sailors, US forces in the region have been placed on high alert. This has undermined Washington's effort to regularise its large military presence in an area where national and religious sensitivities have been inflamed by nightly coverage by Arab satellite television channels of the battles between Palestinian stone-throwers and heavily armed Israeli soldiers.
US citizens have also been warned not to travel to Israel and the Palestinian territories and to exercise caution elsewhere in the region. (On Tuesday a Briton was stabbed in the Jordanian capital). The climate of threat harms US interests.
Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah and defence minister Prince Sultan have stated repeatedly that the kingdom would "react" if Israel escalates its attacks against the Palestinians. Sources in the oil industry assume that the Saudis could impose selective oil sanctions on countries supporting Israel, particularly the US.
Finally, the Palestinians, backed by the Arab governments and people, are no longer prepared to accept the US as sole mediator in negotiations with Israel. The Palestinian leadership has eschewed the Oslo process and formulae put forward by the US at Camp David as being "biased" in favour of Israel.
An immediate objective of the intifada is the internationalisation of the peace process through the creation of an international protection force for the Palestinians and the involvement of Europe and global personalities, like UN secretary general Mr Kofi Annan, Human Rights Commissioner Mrs Mary Robinson, and the former presidents of South Africa and Turkey, Mr Nelson Mandela and Mr Suleiman Demirel.
Until this aim is achieved President Yasser Arafat can be expected to support continuation of the intifada, perhaps at a lower level of intensity than during the first five violent weeks. Washington's monopoly over the peace process is under serious challenge.
