King Hussein confronted his mortality this week and decided that if he should die soon, his bloodline will continue to rule Jordan. As the cancer that has relentlessly weakened him and left him a shadow of his former self reasserted itself, the king removed his brother as heir apparent and reinstalled his eldest son.
In a bitter letter he denounced Crown Prince Hassan for spreading rumours and gossip about other members of the royal family and for interfering in the armed forces. They were the actions of a man facing death and determined to put his house in order before bowing out.
Prince Abdullah (who turned 37 yesterday) looks like his father. He shakes hands like his father and has the same engaging smile. He is, by common consent, a chip off the old block. But the sudden changes of the last week have sent a shockwave through Jordanian society.
The belief that a smooth transition between King Hussein and his brother was preordained has dominated all discussion about the future in the last 34 years. Jordanians now find that some of their dearest old certainties have been questioned. Even the Israelis, who pride themselves on their good intelligence in the region, failed to predict the change. A foreign ministry briefing two weeks before the king's return predicted a smooth transition to Hassan.
Just why it was that the king removed his brother in favour of his son has been virtually the only subject discussed in the cafes and restaurants of old Amman. In the teeming Mata'am Hashem cafe in the centre of the hilly city, Egyptian labourers feigned boredom while the Jordanian waiters engaged in passionate discussions about the future of the country.
"Abdullah is a soldier. We don't need a soldier, we are not at war. We need a politician to rule us. We need Hassan," said Shafi, one of the workers. He was nearly decapitated by a blow from one of his colleagues, Abu Ahmed, who felt embarrassed at such freewheeling talk in front of foreigners.
"We trust the king. Anything he will do is OK as far as we are concerned. If he removed Hassan, so what. He is a man and he wants his son to take his place. He thinks more than we do. He knows what he is doing," he said.
Ellen Khouri, a women's rights worker, shares some of the doubts about the ousting of Hassan. "He was a known quantity. We knew he was a cold character. We knew he was not very good with people. We knew he was clever and a proven intellectual. We know nothing about Abdullah except that he is a soldier," she said.
Her husband, a newspaper columnist and political commentator, Rami Khouri, disagrees strongly, so much so that one can divine a family rift in the making. "Abdullah is like King Hussein. He looks you in the eye. He is not a cold fish. He has been to Oxford University and has proven himself in the army. The king simply decided that he wanted his own son on the throne. I tell you Abdullah is going to make a great king," he said.
Those who criticise the openness of the debate about Jordan's future often try to play a nationalist card. Privately, they will criticise Jordanians of Palestinian origin, over 70 per cent of the population, as less than patriotic. But the truth is that few of the current population can claim to be "really" Jordanian, at least in the sense of someone who originates in Jordan. The king's Hashemite family came to the area now called Jordan during the great Arab revolt at the end of the first World War. The Hashemites originate from the Arabian peninsula thousands of miles away. What is now Jordan was given to them as a family fiefdom by the British.
However, despite the shallow roots of almost all Jordanians, affection for King Hussein is genuine and almost universal. "King Hussein is Jordan and Jordan is King Hussein" was the legend written on hundreds of banners welcoming the king home from chemotherapy in the United States. The vast majority of Jordanians has known no other ruler and many are reluctant to face the possibility of life without their charismatic monarch of 47 years. "When King Hussein came to the throne, Jordan was the weakest country in the region. We were vulnerable on almost all fronts. He proved himself to be a clever manipulator and a great survivor. He navigated us through the shark-infested waters of the Middle East and Jordan is now strong thanks to him," Rami Khouri said.
Because of his unusual political and diplomatic talents, many fear that without him Jordan will be preyed on by its neighbours. King Hussein created in Jordan a buffer state between the radical regimes in Arab countries such as Iraq and the Jewish state of Israel. The 1994 peace treaty signed with Israel has shown that even Arabs who have suffered directly as a result of the expansion of the Jewish state can make peace. Jordan's US and western sponsors are keen to promote the country's achievements in developing democratic institutions. Arab countries have looked on uneasily. They have been intrigued by the democratic experiments while at the same time repulsed by the notion of rapprochement with Israel.
Many Jordanians have taken comfort from the first few days of the prince's regency. They have been encouraged by the show of unity in the royal family and by the visit of the US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright. But they still harbour concerns that the young prince Abdullah's apparent lack of diplomatic skills will make them vulnerable. Courtiers within the royal palace dismiss these concerns contemptuously, pointing to the prince's long experience and training in the military, where he is a major general in the elite forces charged with guarding royal installations.
The military aspects of this palace coup appear to be significant. In his extraordinary letter dismissing his brother, King Hussein criticised him for interfering in the army. "This meddling seemed to be meant to settle scores and included retiring efficient officers known for their allegiance. At the forefront were the Field Marshal and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who was envied," the king wrote.
While many in government have played down the military aspects of the king's succession changes, it is clear that it was significant. Crown Prince Hassan was interfering in the army and he was replaced by a serving army general. The army is fiercely loyal to the royal family and is seen as one of the keys to the stability of the kingdom. Hassan's criticism of King Hussein's fourth, American-born wife, Queen Noor, was also a critical factor, although most believe that on its own it would not have been enough to warrant his removal.
Most Jordanians have not had time to absorb the detail of all the changes. They have instead focused on the health of King Hussein. "The king is sick. He is very sick and I think he will die soon." With those words the courtier put his hand over his face, walked away and wept quietly. It had just been announced that King Hussein was returning to the United States for more medical treatment. His triumphant return to Amman a week before seemed too good to be true. The drought that has plagued the country for the last year had lifted just before his arrival and thousands of well-wishers welcomed their monarch back to the capital - braving the rain to wave and salute.
Next door Israeli politicians breathed a sigh of relief and the Iraqi ruler sent felicitations. The elderly leaders of Syria, Egypt, Iraq and the PLO could believe the myth of immortality for a little longer. If King Hussein could bounce back from cancer then there is hope for everyone. Now the doubts have returned. It is clear that King Hussein is gravely ill. The country and the region may be about to lose a formidable leader.
King Hussein is to have a new bone ma rrow transplant after completing a course of chemotherapy in the Mayo Clinic in the United States, an informed medical source said yesterday. The marrow was taken from his sister, Princess Basma (48) early in December.
