LAURENT Kabila, the leader of the rebellion/invasion in eastern Zaire, said last December that he would march on Kinshasa to remove President Mobutu. To those who had been UN soldiers in Zaire (formerly the Congo) it seemed bombast.

From Goma on Lake Tanganyika, in the heart of Central Africa, to Kinshasa near the Atlantic coast, is 1,000 miles - as a very durable crow might fly. En route there are great rivers, thick forests, wide malarial swamps and the barely discernible remnants of roads.

In Belgian times the roads were maintained by labour from the villages serviced by each road. Apart from repairs to the laterite surfaces, clearance of tree-overhang was constantly required.

However, the Belgians had also made considerable use of the great rivers. The navigable stretches were linked to roads and railways in a system called the voie nationale.

Passengers and heavy freight were carried for great distances. Docks and cranes made Kindu, for instance, look like a small port. It was an important capture for Kabila's troops last week.

The news must have stirred memories amongst the troops of B Coy, 32nd Battalion, who were stationed there in 1960 under the late Comdt Des Hassey. Moba, on Lake Tanganyika, was taken on Tuesday. Our troops will remember it as Baudouinville.

Kindu is an important communications hub and the northernmost terminal of a long railway, although no one travels to South Africa on it now.

The Lualaba river, beside which Kindu stands, joins the Zaire river farther north. These provide the best route to Kisangani (formerly Stanleyville). Most exports from the interior, including ore from the Katanga (now Shaba) mines, reached the sea in thin way.

KABILA's advance has been steady. To understand it one must go back to 1994

to another man, the then commander of the Rwandan Patriotic Front, Maj Gen Paul Kagame.

He emerged from the chaos after the presidential aircraft was shot down at Kigali Airport in 1994.

Kagame was a Tutsi born in Rwanda, whose family became refugees in Uganda after a Hutu coup. He was much praised by Canadians and Americans for his campaign tactics after the plane crash.

A friend sent this writer a cutting from the Washington Post (of August 25th, 1994) which seemed pure hype for a man who had been partly American-trained. It did describe Kagame's tactics. I put it aside but filed it.

But results were speaking for themselves. Kagame's success in overcoming numerical superiority, and his skill in outwitting the Hutu government troops, was clear.

He had to save as many Tutsi civilians as possible, while avoiding pitched battles. He minimised casualties by avoiding frontal assaults, and his forces steadily increased.

Infiltration was a favourite tactic. Men in civilian clothes would infiltrate a town in advance, waiting for the approach of the main body of troops, when they would harass and attack government positions. He always allowed the enemy an escape route and then attacked from the flanks and the rear, usually at night.

Good discipline made Kagame's troops welcome to villagers who associated uniforms with pillage and rape. Volunteers flocked to his army.

Whatever about police intolerance of crime, history shows that tolerance of indiscipline in quiet times has disastrous consequences in war.

I should say that I am giving a one-sided story; I have not seen the Hutu side.

I should mention that Alain Frilet, a French journalist at present in Dublin, interviewed Laurent Kabila last year. Kabila, who had been with Kagame in Rwanda in 1994, said that he intended to base his tactics on Kagame's.

After speaking to Mr Frilet I went back to the cutting.

ALREADY there are reports of Kabila's infiltrators in Kinshasa and in Kisangani. His troops are said to be disciplined and were welcomed in the captured towns. Agence France Presse (AFP), however, reports his first reverse on Wednesday at Bafwasende, 80km north-east of Kisangani.

He is said to have troops within 10km of the city. Assuming he takes it, what are his chances of getting to Kinshasa?

He has good relations with some politicians there. He is hardly a trained commander but has good advisers. Theoretically he can take over a fleet of river craft and sail to Kinshasa along the Lualaba and Zaire rivers. But these craft could be ambushed from the river banks and are vulnerable to anti-tank weapons.

A bargeload of mercenaries (including a British MP's brother) sank when hit by one Ethiopian anti-tank rocket in 1961.

However, the farther Kabila's men sail the wider the river becomes and the safer they are. So far, Mobutu's troops have hardly fought at all. But Kabila is getting overextended and far from his Zairean base.

Reports from Shaba Province (formerly Katanga) are vague. Manono, with its 30,000 people and the biggest tin mine in Africa, seems to have fallen into the hands of the rebels and the local Baluba Jeunesse (a name from the past - they represented the frustrated and often vicious young men who were challenging the tribal elders in the 1960s).

It is impossible to get anything more specific at this stage.

The late Col Pearse Barry had a company of 33rd Battalion troops (110 men) there in 1960. He was decorated for saving all the Europeans and any Congolese who came to his defended area when riots erupted (many other Congolese were too busy rioting).

Once the danger was over the Europeans were less than grateful, But that is life on a UN mission.