Mary Banotti's challenge for the Presidency faded in the past week, caught up in a perceived "dirty tricks" campaign against the Fianna Fail/ Progressive Democrats candidate, Mary McAleese.
The sudden downturn in the Fine Gael candidate's fortunes appears to be a knock-on effect of the sentiment which sent John Bruton's public satisfaction rating plummeting from 60 to 43 per cent in the previous opinion poll. And, with the "leaking" of official documents still very much a live issue, further damage cannot be discounted.
Voter volatility has been a defining mark in this election campaign. And while Mary McAleese was always ahead, according to a succession of Irish Times/MRBI opinion polls, the second slot was briefly held by Adi Roche, before her campaign imploded.
Much of the "soft" vote, which originally attached itself to Ms Roche, is still up for grabs, according to Monday's survey. The level of "undecided voters" jumped from 13 per cent to 20 per cent in less than a week, as Ms Banotti lost 5 points to 24 per cent; Derek Nally dropped 2 points to 4 per cent and Ms Roche slipped by a single point to 7 per cent. Support for Prof McAleese and for Dana Rosemary Scallon remained static at 37 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.
Seventeen per cent of those questioned on Monday for the Irish Times/MRBI said they had not yet made up their minds as to how they would vote. And a further 2 per cent refused to comment or would not vote. The size of the group is quite unusual at this stage of an election campaign. For example, one in five Dublin voters is still undecided. And the same percentage holds true for women, right across the country.
Voter resistance to the idea of a party-political President has been reflected in the types of campaigns being waged by individual candidates and in the spread of crossparty support they receive.
Even at this stage, in the aftermath of bitter and intensive infighting between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael over the nature of Prof McAleese's nationalism and her views on Sinn Fein, she attracts only 61 per cent of Fianna Fail support. At the same time, she pulls 16 per cent support from both Fine Gael and Labour.
As might be expected, her support is strongest in rural areas. In the past week, she has shown some vulnerability in Dublin, where her support has slipped to 29 per cent, marginally behind Ms Banotti. But in all other regions, she is in solid control. And she commands greatest support among the youngest, 18-34 age group. Mary Banotti secures 59 per cent of Fine Gael's support. But she attracts a bigger percentage of the Labour Party vote than Adi Roche and a greater Progressive Democrats following than Prof McAleese. She is also the leading contender in Dublin, with 30 per cent support.
The Fine Gael nominee is also very much the "women's candidate" in this election. Of the five contenders for the Presidency, she is the only one to attract a proportionately much larger female than male vote. The ratio was 29 to 19 in the most recent poll. However, her voters are concentrated in the 35-64 group.
Barring a cataclysmic event which would negatively affect the McAleese campaign, Ms Banotti would seem to have no chance of bridging the 13-point gap that faces her. The poll snapshot was taken on Monday, when three days remained in the campaign, and the drift was away from Fine Gael.
The woes of Adi Roche continued unabated, with further slippages in Labour Party support, to 22 per cent, and in Munster, where she had been strongest. The only gleam of consolation was contained in a marginal increase of her vote in Dublin, to 8 per cent.
Dana Rosemary Scallon held her overall vote at 8 per cent, but she gained slightly in Connacht/Ulster. She attracts greatest support among farmers and among people aged 5065.
Derek Nally also appears to have been damaged by the anti-McAleese campaign and he will be very disappointed with a support level of 4 per cent.
As for the 17 per cent of voters who have yet to make up their minds, there are some indications of who they will not vote for in this poll.
Voter resistance is greatest in the case of Dana, with 53 per cent of those questioned saying they would definitely not vote for her. That figure falls to 31 per cent in the case of Mr Nally; to 20 per cent for Ms Roche; 19 per cent for Prof McAleese and 17 per cent for Ms Banotti. The McAleese vote has remained remarkably consistent during the five weeks of the campaign. It opened at a level of 35 per cent and fell to 32 per cent before rising and stabilising at 37 per cent. Ms Banotti opened at 22 per cent and rose to 29 per cent before falling back to 24 per cent.
Ms Roche began with 31 per cent before falling precipitously to her present level of 7 per cent. Dana opened with 7 per cent and has gained a single point. And Mr Nally started with 7 per cent before falling to 4 per cent.
The dramatic rise in the number of undecided voters in the last week of the campaign may change the pecking order of the three lower candidates in the race. But the result of the election itself seems to be beyond doubt. The State is about to get its first Northern nationalist as President. The result will fireproof Bertie Ahern from internal Fianna Fail criticisms over the treatment of Albert Reynolds. And Mary Harney will be shown to have backed a winner. That complex combination should provide interesting days ahead.
