TODAY'S Anglo-Irish Conference meeting in Dublin marks another milestone on the road to the British general election. We can expect some warm words about Sir Patrick Mayhew's tenure, now drawing to a close, but we should expect little else - although some, as ever, are determined to travel hopefully.
There is a curious notion doing the rounds to which some nationalist politicians, and a few of the chattering class, are apparently prepared to give credence. The thesis runs that Mr John Major - in the teeth of the British election but suddenly freed the constraints of Commons votes and - dependence on Mr David Trimble - might take one last gasp "risk" for peace.
Under this benign scenario, Mr Major would do what he has so far steadfastly refused - set a firm date for Sinn Fein's admission to talks consequent upon a second IRA ceasefire. The enticing theory is that he could thus secure his place in the history books by clearing the way for Mr Tony Blair's speedy resumption of the process once the election is over.
In this, as in all such matters, the "never say never" dictum suggests itself, but the Irish Government is hardly holding its breath and key players on all sides simply dismiss the possibility. They are surely right to do so. For those who would allow it make two key, and possibly mistaken, assumptions - about Mr Major's imminent demise and about the nature and operation of British policy on the "peace process".
AS THE defecting Sir George Gardiner observed, it is well-nigh impossible to find Tory MPs who believe they can win the general election. As the Tories continue to search for rock-bottom in the polls and Labour frontbenchers contemplate a landslide, Mr Major thinks to confound them all it is not just that the leader of the Conservative Party must retain belief in his ability to win, in face of all evidence to the contrary. Quote the historical data showing no prime minister recovering from such a deficit to retain power, and Mr Major will agree the British are entering uncharted waters. Either Mr Blair will defy the statistics and claim an unprecedented electoral swing, or Mr Major will claim an unprecedented fifth term.
There are those around Mr Major who maintain it is still possible. Fantasists? Maybe, but we can at least take instruction from their calculations. One insider recently predicted a Conservative majority in the next House of Commons of between six and 10. Another accepted that an overall majority was unlikely while insisting that the Conservatives would emerge as the largest single party. His conversation then turned to the practicalities of life as a minority government in virtual coalition with the Ulster Unionists - the nightmare on Stephen's Green.
The point here is not to contest that this will happen but that some senior Conservatives at least cling to the possibility, for as long as they see hope of a joyful resurrection, they will do nothing to alienate Mr Trimble. Mr (now Sir) James Molyneaux's "understanding" with Mr Major was intended to last the lifetime of the present parliament. Conservative calculations must allow continuing need of his successor in the next.
It seems highly improbable, then, that Mr Major at last will heed "the call of history" by reversing last autumn's response to the revamped Hume-Adams proposals. Downing Street does not accept Sinn Fein's bona fides; would have little appetite for resuming heavy textual negotiations with Mr Hume, and might, indeed, be fearful that a flurry of activity at this stage could further enhance Sinn Fein's general election prospects. This side of the election at least, Labour's Dr Mo Mowlam will not depart from Mr Major's determination, in the event of a new ceasefire, to judge republicans "by word and deed" before inviting Sinn Fein to join the talks process.
Assuming a Labour victory and that she gets the job, Dr Mowlam will want to make an impact during the symbolic first 100 days. She is committed to a range of "confidence building" measures which might bolster a resumed Hume/Adams initiative after the electoral dust has settled on the North Report, the operation of the Life Sentence Review Board, the transfer of prisoners, fair employment initiatives and the incorporation of the European Convention on Human Rights into domestic law.
DR MOWLAM would probably have no difficulty with the concept of a time-frame for the talks process, but like Sir Patrick, she would consider the process itself "pretty meaningless" if the unionists weren't there.
Which brings us to the nitty gritty - how to get Sinn Fein in while keeping the unionists aboard; how to persuade Sinn Fein that the process would be meaningful and substantive, and how, in the event of another ceasefire, to prevent the unionists turning a resumed talks process into yet another decommissioning conference.
For it is to the question of decommissioning that we keep returning. On the question of a fast track for Sinn Fein's entry, Mr Ken Maginnis says: "In the light of their long-term strategy, any timetabling of the political strand would have to be matched by a quite stringent timetable for decommissioning."
On the face of it, Labour and the Tories occupy the same ground - favouring the Mitchell proposal for some decommissioning not before, or after, but during a process of negotiation, but the suspicion has always been that Dr Mowlam knows it is not going to happen. The implication of some of her comments is that she could find favour with decommissioning providing "the fourth strand" of the process - a concept originally promoted by the Tanaiste, Mr Spring.
However, should she in office decide on that course, Dr Mowlam would face a battle on two fronts. The unionists, for sure, would be opposed but the second, and surely mistaken, assumption of the optimists is that Mr Major's management of the "peace process" first time round was entirely governed by the Westminster arithmetic. Ministers hotly deny this, and specifically so on the arms issue. Decommissioning was their idea - not an invention of the Ulster unionists. If a newly appointed Dr Mowlam chose to kick it into the long grass of a fourth strand, her first battle could well be with her own security establishment.
