The first 100 days are indelibly etched as a political rite of passage by the rhetoric of Roosevelt and Kennedy. It is now 100 days since Michael Noonan became leader of Fine Gael. Convention suggests it is an appropriate moment for appraisal.

Mr Noonan's inaugural address as leader of Fine Gael was powerful. Its promise of a social contract with the people and a complete ban on corporate donations was conveyed by a man who clearly believed his time had come. Mr Noonan is demonstrably capable. His Limerick wit and natural pugnacity make him a formidable foe in any verbal joust. He can fix opponent and commentator alike with a withering look.

Fate, however, has not been kind. Napoleon said all he needed was a lucky general. Fine Gael has not been blessed with lucky generals. Thus far Mr Noonan has been no exception.

The cheque from Esat was the first landmine. Ethics, the very issue he had chosen as his theme was within weeks his Achilles' heel. It was embarrassing for him and demoralising for his party. Then came foot-and-mouth disease. What should have been a disaster for the Government became a demonstration of determined competence from Joe Walsh.

Equally as damaging for Mr Noonan was that a time when, as a new leader, he should have been travelling the country rallying his troops, he was grounded. Then, last weekend, came revelations about tax evasions at Fine Gael headquarters. By now ethics have turned to ashes for Fine Gael.

I will spare you the crocodile tears. Of course, I would be very concerned if Mr Noonan was surging ahead. There are two ingredients in the alchemy of politics, luck and events. What Michael Noonan has so far lacked in luck, he may yet make up with the turn of events. Events were the making of his predecessor, John Bruton, in December 1994. It would be a rare event indeed if lightning were to strike twice.

Fianna Fail is led not only by a lucky general but by a very careful one as well. If Mr Noonan is waiting for Bertie Ahern to drop the ball in injury time, I think he will be kept waiting.

Mr Noonan has not simply been unfortunate in the hand that events have dealt him these last 100 days. In his first appearance as leader of Fine Gael he evinced a stern righteousness but very little empathy with the human condition. As a leader of people you need to be a little more rounded to convince.

I have been in politics a very long time and I have come to the conclusion that for all their scorn, people actually want to see the best of themselves reflected in politics. They know their representatives are only the mirror image of themselves.

The people, by and large, have always got the politicians they deserve. If there was corruption by political figures in the 1980s and into the early 1990s, there was also widespread tax evasion in our society. People rightly demand better of their politicians. They also know, or at least most of them do, that they have got to try a little harder themselves. I have already adverted to the lack of oxygen on the moral high ground.

I do not think that Ireland 2001 is thirsting for more self-righteousness from its politicians and political leaders. People know it is as indigestible and as dangerous as the venality it is prescribed to cure. Administered as a purgative, as it so often is, by self-appointed minders of public morality, it is nauseating and objectionable.

What people want are leaders who truly empathise with the human condition, in all its flaws, and then by example, try to do better. Reflect back to people decency, hard work, shrewdness and, if possible, a levelling sense of not taking yourself too seriously and you have the qualities it takes to bring people with you. Bringing people with you is different from merely impressing them. Any clever lad can do that.

There is another significant anniversary this week. Wednesday last was the 75th anniversary of the founding of Fianna Fail. I felt a little like another former foreign minister, Talleyrand, who, at the end of his days was asked what he had done during the French Revolution. He replied: "I survived." Unlike Talleyrand, I was far less successful in trapezing from one administration to the next. It is a long time, however, since I have felt so optimistic about Fianna Fail.

Very hard lessons have had to be learnt. Fianna Fail has been deeply hurt, both within and without, by the revelations at the tribunals. Now, however, a new generation of people are emerging in the parliamentary party who had nothing to do with, and will not countenance any association with, low standards.

To the great majority who always kept faith with the founding ideals of Fianna Fail, there is a palpable sense of a new dawn. Next year, when myself, Michael O'Kennedy and Ben Briscoe leave Leinster House, the last direct links with the founders of Fianna Fail will be broken.

When we entered Leinster House in 1965, Sean Lemass was still Taoiseach, Sean McEntee, Frank Aiken, Paddy Smith and Dr Jim Ryan were still there. As youths they had led a revolution and for the next 50 years they led their country from colony to increasingly meaningful political and economic independence. They and their opposite numbers in Fine Gael and Labour were the real patriots.

Hard lessons being the ones best learned, I am more confident than I have been in a very long time that Fianna Fail is in the right hands and set on the right course. Bertie Ahern is motivated by public service. He instinctively knows how to talk to people, not just talk at them. In negotiating the Good Friday agreement he has ensured his place in history.

He is still a young man and he is a lucky general. I have no doubt whatever that the able Mr Noonan is also motivated by public service, but he has been unlucky.