Small political parties attract obituary notices like magnets draw iron. Their competitors are happy to encourage that tendency within the media. But the Progressive Democrats have confounded their critics for years. And they have no intention of going gentle into that good night.
Mary Harney will concentrate on reinvigorating her party in Cork this weekend: to celebrate being in government; to grab some kudos from the December Budget; to soften the party's profile and to prepare for a general election. In welcoming delegates, she will warn that this is a "pivotal conference", perhaps the last chance of a hard sell before they face the electorate.
They have existed for 15 years, the longest-surviving new mainstream party for the past 70 years. And they have spent seven of the last 11 years in government. It is a fine record and one that Mary Harney is determined to embellish. To do that, however, the PDs must hold their four Dail seats, or do better. Anything less and their political muscle will be overwhelmed by free-floating Independents.
Michael McDowell identified this threat. But he also recognised an opportunity. He proposed the development of a franchise-style party that would invite selected Independents into a loose alliance under a new party banner and leadership structure. Launching and branding such a radical party within sight of a general election was a huge risk. And it was one Harney and the party executive refused to contemplate, especially when it came encumbered with demands to grant the Attorney General executive, presidential powers within the organisation.
What started as a love-bombing exercise, designed to woo Mr McDowell back to the bosom of the PDs for their party conference and as a Dail candidate, ended in tears. Leaked negotiating documents did serious damage. In arguing for radical change, Mr McDowell had declared: "The PD label is dated and carries a lot of negative baggage of economic elitism, Fianna Fail factionalism, niche ambitions, revisionism and smallness." In turn, his proposals were represented as a grab for power within the party. And his advocacy of a united Ireland policy was rejected in favour of an agreed Ireland approach.
Although the exchanges resulted in something of a political bloodbath, the party door hasn't been closed to Mr McDowell, provided he moderates his demands for executive position and power. But that is unlikely.
So the party must rally behind old certainties and established policies. And there, as Mr McDowell pointed out, the PD party enjoys "a liberal, honest and straightforward image".
Mary Harney played to those strengths yesterday during an interview with Marian Finucane on RTE. She presented the decent face of the party, concerned about healthcare, education and old-age pensioners. But she was firm about the need for cutting the top rate of income tax and, despite past failures, held hard to the concept of deregulation.
As for her own mistakes, she spoke of the O'Flaherty fiasco and the defection of Helen Keogh and the damaging effect they had on her confidence. But that was now behind her. She had rediscovered her appetite for politics and promised to do better.
The Tanaiste will attempt to build on those elements in tomorrow's televised speech from the conference. The key focus will be on a reduction of income taxes in advance of the December Budget. But she will promise higher payments in childcare benefits and old-age pensions. And she will advocate spending increases on healthcare, education, transport and housing.
With four weeks to go to Budget day and next year's Government spending estimates already agreed, the Tanaiste is perfectly placed to steal some of Fianna Fail's clothes. And some of her Government colleagues are resigned to that fact. There is no great sweat if the PDs decide to project a more socially aware image. Everyone expects the Budget will be particularly generous to lower-paid workers and social welfare recipients to compensate them for higher than expected inflation and to underpin the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness.
APART from that, the conference will be used to familiarise the public with members of the parliamentary party and future Dail candidates. Liz O'Donnell and Bobby Molloy are seen as front-runners. But Des O'Malley will retire in favour of Tim O'Malley in Limerick, while his daughter, Fiona, will contest Dun Laoghaire. John Dardis will seek election in Kildare South and the party chairman, John Minihan, will contest Cork South-Central. Other names will feature in a broadcast video of would-be TDs.
Pat Cox will be an invited speaker. While his presence points to a gradual healing of wounds, the MEP is in no rush to rejoin his old party.
In the nature of things, the party conference will be as much a convivial gathering as a cold-eyed political process. People who have endured the heat of the sun for the sake of the party will join with kindred spirits in a festive outing. But officials will use the occasion to spread the party message to a wider audience. Ms Harney will reach out through her televised address to emphasise the continuing relevance of the PDs and to target specific audiences.
The 500,000 people who pay the top rate of income tax will be promised further relief. Old-age pensioners will be looked after and couples with young children will benefit from childcare provisions. Infra structural spending on health, transport, housing and education will rise. The message will be very positive and progressive. Mary Harney has been in government for seven of the past 11 years and has an appetite for more.
dcoghlan@irish-times.ie
