"UNTIL recently, the official line was that there is no problem: the Holy Father is old and tired, but there's nothing abnormal in that. All the same, nobody believed a word of it ... Many of us simply take it for granted that John Paul II has a cancerous tumour and is undergoing intense treatment for it ... For us, it's obvious that every time he makes a public appearance, he does so thanks only to various substances meant to keep him going."
Thus spake an unnamed Vatican monsignor in the columns of Rome daily La Repubblica this week. The same monsignor went on to describe the current in- house Vatican atmosphere as one of "fine di pontificato" (the end of a pontificate), adding that many Vatican congregations (departments) have switched to the "hold" mode, carrying out only current business and taking no major new initiatives.
Furthermore, he said, in the context of an apparent power vacuum, three cardinals close to the Pope now exercised ever more influence in this pontificate - namely, Slovak Jozef Tomko at Propaganda Fide, Frenchman Roger Etchegaray at Justice and Peace, and German Joseph Ratzinger at Doctrine of the Faith (ex-Holy Office).
One senior curia figure contacted by The Irish Times this week dismissed the monsignor's remarks as inaccurate gossip, adding not without irony that the source for the Repubblica interview was almost certainly Italian.
The official line of a tired and older Pope still holds good, he suggested, rejecting the idea of a Holy See bureaucracy that had decided to mark time.
The Repubblica claims came just one day after the French daily Le Monde, on the eve of next week's already controversial papal visit to France, had made the unoriginal "revelation" that the Pope was suffering from Parkinson's Disease.
Whatever the truth about the Pope's health, speculation, however ghoulish, is inevitable. Pope John Paul II, is now 76 and in the 18th year of his pontificate. Even the most casual observer can see that he is no longer the fit, active and resplendently healthy Polish cardinal elected Pope in October 1978.
His health has visibly deteriorated, especially in the last four years, to the extent that he now often appears tired and in some discomfort during his many public functions. His left hand visibly trembles and he often uses a walking stick.
Last Christmas Day, the world was dramatically reminded of his frailty when he had to cut short his Urbi Et Orbi address, almost keeling over with an attack of vomiting caused by influenza.
Given John Paul's age and medical record, there is nothing surprising in all of this. The Ali Agca assassination attempt in May 1981, surgery for the removal of a colon tumour in July 1992 and a leg break and subsequent bone replacement surgery in April-May 1994 have all left their marks.
The most recent round of speculation, however, started last month, when the Pope was rushed from his summer residence of Castelgandolfo to a hospital in nearby Albano for checks on "intestinal disturbances". Before that, he had looked better than for some time, returning tanned and seemingly well from his traditional July mountain holiday in the Dolomites.
Further speculation was prompted by his pastoral visit last weekend to Hungary where, once again, he looked tired.
Senior Vatican spokesman Joaquin Navarro-Valls, himself a doctor, regularly responds to speculation by saying that the Pope's basic health is good.
Last weekend, however, he had an unusually frank discussion with the Vatican press corps, saying that the Pope has a recurrent and unidentified intestinal infection, and may eventually undergo a laparoscopy (a tubal examination of the abdomen).
Dr Navarro-Valls also suggested that the Pope's left-hand tremble might be an "extrapyramidal" disorder, in layman's language a disorder of the central nervous system which may prove to be Parkinson's Disease. Until now, the Vatican has always suggested that both the Pope's stomach problems and his left-hand tremble result from the Ali Agca shooting.
Despite these problems, no alterations to the future papal travel schedule are planned, said Dr Navarro-Valls, adding: "We cannot be sure that the Holy Father won't have intestinal problems again, but it's not a problem for his pastoral visits. The Pope knows his condition and his travel schedule, as do his doctors, and they simply say to him: `It's a heavy programme, but if you want to do it, you're up to it.'"
Just to underline the point, Dr Navarro-Valls pointed out that, apart from next week's trip to France, the Pope already has his usual four foreign trips scheduled for 1997 - Czech Republic in May, Poland in June, France in August and Brazil in October. Furthermore, he still very much wants to make oft-postponed visits to both Beirut and Sarajevo.
In the meantime, the health watch goes on, as does Vatican gossip which, by the way, now suggests that the next pope will be an Austrian of Jewish origin, not yet a cardinal ...
