Prospect of fruitful talks in Northern Ireland remains a pipe dream

THE statement from the office of Senator George, Mitchell and his two international colleagues was bald and blunt: "In the view…

THE statement from the office of Senator George, Mitchell and his two international colleagues was bald and blunt: "In the view of the Chairmen, it is not possible to reach agreement on this issue at this time."

The issue in question, it should be remembered, was the agenda for the remainder of the opening plenary session of the multi party talks on the North - simply put, the topics "that should be addressed and the order in which they should be addressed.

Six weeks of multiple contacts and meetings and exhaustive argument have yielded only one apparent marker of progress - a non unanimous agreement on and adoption of rules of procedure. Beyond that, they could not move. And even those rules are not carved in stone, for the DUP dissented and will dismiss them whenever it suits.

The talks which opened with a sense of something historic and optimistic (in spite of the early trauma) have dug themselves into a pit of depression and confrontation which matches well the mood in the Northern community at large.

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As the leader writer in the London Independent wrote at the outset on June 10th: "All parties to the conflict in Northern Ireland, not excluding successive British governments, have shown a talent in the past 30 years for snatching deadlock from the jaws of hope."

In spite of the political vacuum which it leaves, the break in the talks until September 9th may be the lesser of two evils. The constant emanation of bickering and recrimination and disagreement from the Castle Buildings venue was only augmenting the profound feelings of division and near despair in the community.

And there has scarcely been a time, even in the throes of the 25 years of conflict, when the sense of disharmony and bitterness has been so acute.

Some commentators have suggested that recent events only served to uncover attitudes and feelings which were present anyway just below the surface, but that is neither an adequate nor an accurate analysis.

The IRA and loyalist ceasefires in 1994 brought a great swell of hope and desire for a settlement and for reconciliation. Cross community projects flourished, there were mass meetings in nationalist West Belfast at which loyalist leaders spoke, emigrants returned, the economy took off, international goodwill and support accumulated. President Bill Clinton arrived.

If all party talks had begun on the crest of that wave of positive energy, they just might have been carried a good distance on its momentum. But, in the event, the politicians failed to rise to the occasion and various arguments and concerns, which now seem petty and futile, were utilised to obstruct dialogue and eventually erode the widespread optimism.

Now we no longer have an IRA ceasefire, nor any apparent early prospect of one. Drumcree and the events surrounding it created a profound watershed. Catholics saw their Protestant neighbours, in many cases, join with bully boy elements to blockade roads and bring the North to a standstill as the RUC stood by ineffectually.

Whatever the justification, the subsequent police actions against nationalist protesters wiped out all prospect of improved relationships between the minority community and the RUC. Sectarian attitudes and actions were readily whipped up on all sides.

The beginnings of trust, at its most vulnerable and precarious stage, have been shattered. Although the report of the International Body had clearly set out a concept under which some decommissioning would take place during the process of all party negotiations, rather than before or after, unionist politicians again reverted to a form of their original demands.

Senator Mitchell's report had said:

"As progress is made on political issues, even modest mutual steps on decommissioning could help create the atmosphere needed for further steps in a progressive pattern of mounting trust and confidence." The prospect was ditched at the multi party talks this week as unionists sought to make decommissioning a primary and separate prior target.

Mr Seamus Mallon, deputy leader of the SDLP, has accused three parties - the UUP, the DUP and the UK Unionists - of "poisoning the atmosphere on the streets and in the towns" by their actions. In fact, they have simply added further venom to the already toxic mixture of attitudes, rather than seeking to apply - an antidote.

Appealing to reality and pragmatism, the PUP spokesman, Mr David Ervine, has pointed out that whatever about the prospects a year ago, attitudes are so polluted and unstable now that there is not the remotest possibility of paramilitaries of any hue seriously addressing the possibility of disarming.

The amount of bridge building which must be attempted now is so formidable as to seem almost insuperable. But there appears to be no option other than to start from scratch and hope that the situation on the ground does not slip over the brink.

Senator Mitchell's departing statement indicates no wavering in his commitment to the tortuous process in which he still retains a central role: "We remain firm in our view that these talks are the best means of securing a broadly acceptable political solution and lasting peace in Northern Ireland. We look forward to continuing our work with the participants to move toward that goal."

His determined optimism is not shared on the streets. Few can envisage any prospect other than renewed unionist stalling, using the decommissioning issue as a wedge, when the talks reconvene.

The concept of "real and meaningful talks" remains a pipe dream. For the sake of relative peace of mind, it is best at this stage to throw away the crystal ball.