Republicans less than jubilant, despite their new political dominance

It should be a golden time for Republicans

It should be a golden time for Republicans. Not since the days of President Eisenhower almost 50 years ago have they held the White House and the two houses of Congress.

But Republicans are not cheering too loudly, except perhaps Tom "the Hammer" Delay, the firebrand chief whip in the House of Representatives who crowed: "The things we have been dreaming about we can now do unfettered."

Although Delay is a Congressman from Texas, he could not be more off the conciliatory message that President-elect George Bush delivered from the podium of the Texas House of Representatives. It must have been one of the most subdued victory speeches in American history.

As the first President to be elected without a popular majority since 1888, and only with the help of a Supreme Court which would not allow enough time to count disputed ballots in Florida, Bush is coming into the White House a much weakened figure. For diehard Democrats, especially in the African-American caucus, Bush is seen as the man who stole the presidency by disenfranchising black and other Democratic voters.

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Rev Jesse Jackson is the loudest voice denouncing the "velvet coup" by the Republican appointed judges of the Supreme Court. "Illegitimacy clouds his presidency. Legitimacy comes from the consent of the governed and he lacks that," Jackson thunders. But then he telephoned Bush to congratulate him.

Even a more moderate Democrat, Senator Chris Dodd, says: "There will always be this sense that there was some larceny involved in this election."

Polls are showing, however, that the public - while not very happy that the election had to be settled in court - is ready to accept Bush as their president. A Gallup poll shows that 80 per cent accept him as "legitimate".

The problem for Bush is: will he be able to govern? Even presidents with more comfortable majorities on Capitol Hill than him have run into problems with Congress. President Clinton had Democratic majorities in both houses for his first two years and these were his worst years.

Bush's situation is more fraught. In the House, the Republicans have a nine-seat majority out of 434 members. Even Mr Delay will have his work cut out whipping this razor-thin majority to ensure they always vote the right way.

In the Senate there is a 50-50 tie between the 100 senators, which means frequent calls on Vice-President-elect Dick Cheney to give his casting vote as the presiding officer. As 60 votes are needed to break filibusters and change procedural rules, the Republicans will be obliged to do deals and are already under pressure to cede posts on the powerful committees.

During his campaign, Bush constantly claimed he would end partisanship and rancour in Washington and show he could work with Democrats. He frequently cited his own state, Texas, where as governor he worked closely with the Democratic majority to push through legislation.

He never imagined as he championed bipartisanship that he would be facing Democrats in Washington who would see him as virtually stealing the presidency from their man. His "victory speech" on Wednesday night was one long appeal for healing and a reaching out to Democrats. "I was not elected to serve one party but to serve one nation."

"Republicans want the best for our nation. And so do Democrats. Our votes may differ, but not our hopes."

MOST of the speech was along those soothing, entreating lines, far different from the harsh rhetoric of the campaign trail. Al Gore to his great credit, played his part in appealing for an end to "partisan rancour" which coloured the past five weeks of post-election trauma.

He pledged "to honour the new President-elect and to do everything possible to help him bring Americans together in fulfilment of the great vision that our Declaration of Independence defines and that our Constitution affirms and defends".

But when the euphoria and the glitter of inauguration night balls have faded, what then? By then Bush will have had a chance to show by cabinet and other appointments whether he means what he says about bipartisanship.

Already the hunt is on for high-profile Democrats who would be willing to serve under Bush. President John F. Kennedy, conscious of his slender popular-vote majority over Richard Nixon, appointed some prominent Republicans to his administration, such as Douglas Dillon to the Treasury.

President Clinton appointed Republican Senator William Cohen to head the Pentagon, hoping to appease the Newt Gingrich conservatives.

But Democrats are already sensing they can win control of the Senate and the House in the mid-term elections in 2002. That would give pause to senior figures offered posts in a Bush administration. It could be a kiss of death for ambitious politicians.

Bush must also watch that while he is reaching out to Democrats, he does not alienate the Republican conservative base. A newly formed ginger group which helped craft Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America" is already warning Bush not to renege on election pledges concerning tax cuts, school vouchers, national defence reform, partial privatisation of social security and a ban on late-term abortion.

On some of these issues, compromises could be worked out with the help of conservative Democrats known as "blue dogs", but the abortion and school voucher issues are anathema to the Democratic base so Bush will be advised to avoid the blood-letting fights in the early months of his presidency.

His former rival for the Republican nomination, Senator John McCain, has already announced that with the support of the Democrats, he will be pushing his plan for campaign finance reform which would abolish the "soft money" contributions which evade the legal limits on fundraising.

This is a sensitive issue for Bush, who showed little enthusiasm for reform in an area where Republicans can outspend Democrats.

It will take all of Bush's skills learned in reaching out to Texas Democrats while nursing his own Republicans to prevent nasty wars on Capitol Hill. One of his most important appointments will be liaison with Congress.

Even while Bush is being sworn in on January 20th, many of the Republicans applauding will be thinking of the mid-term elections, less than two years away.

The precedents are not good. In 1952, Eisenhower won the White House and Republicans won both houses of Congress. Two years later, the Democrats swept back to control the Senate and the House.

Bush may be thinking of another precedent. The only other son to follow a father into the White House, John Quincy Adams in 1824, was swept out of office after one term.