IT'S the despair of conservatives the world over, but the rise of the welfare mother shows no sign of abating. And in Ireland, the rise is happening faster than most places.

The number of unmarried claimants of lone parents allowance was still under 10,000 a little over a decade ago. It passed the 30,000 mark in January 1995 is now climbing at a steady 300 a month and should pass the 35,000 mark in April. In the words of one senior social welfare official, it is threatening to become "the new live register".

This, of course, is an exaggeration. The ranks on one parents on welfare have some way to go before threatening the preeminence of the live registered in the social welfare budget. But the remarks betrays a certain alarm at the rate of growth and concern at how far it may go.

It isn't quite the same issue, but Ireland is now a strong fourth in the EU league of births outside marriage. Still a long way behind the leading three of Denmark, France and Britain, but comfortably clear of Spain and Italy, not to mention the super Liberal Netherlands.

At the risk of stating the obvious (though it's not that often stated) unmarried lone parents is defined by the Department of Social Welfare are overwhelmingly female. At the end of 1995, 218 of the 33,824 were men. This was up from 164 a year previously itself an interesting trend, but still only a blip in the overall pattern.

Also, the number of dependent children of lone parents on welfare has almost doubled in the past five years, though this is, largely accounted for by the increase in the number of single parents themselves. At the end of 1995, more than 25,000 of the almost 34,000 single parents had only one child. A little over 2,500 claimants had more than two.

In defence of the social welfare system, it must be pointed out that while the numbers of lone parents on welfare have risen dramatically, their proportion of the total number of lone parents has remained fairly constant at two thirds. That is to say that the numbers of lone parents not depending on welfare have risen at about the same rate.

The lone parents allowance is not therefore the proven incentive, argues Paul Wilson, principal officer of the Department's social assistance section in Sligo.

"Which is not to say the whole social welfare system isn't in some way sustaining the trend. Just that there are other factors at work. It may be that lone parents allowance itself has helped change public opinion generally about single motherhood, which now carries little of the stigma it did 20 years ago. Whatever it is, we have nothing here like the furore in the UK, where the very existence of LPA is under threat."

And indeed, aside from the occasional broadside fired by Catholic traditionalists or the PRSI oppressed, the phenomenon is going largely undebated, certainly by the politicians. But for Fianna Fail TD Eoin Ryan, the realities on the ground in his Dublin South East constituency are forcing the issue to his attention.

It seems to me we've gone from one extreme to the other in the space of 20 years, from one of complete intolerance towards single mothers to completely Unquestioning acceptance. And I think it's time we asked a few questions.

"People are afraid to say this because they'll be branded rightwing or whatever. But I'm not arguing on moral grounds. I have young children and I'm not a conservative, but I am worried about the long term consequences of all of this. Where exactly are we going and why aren't we talking about it?"

As a public representative, he regularly advises young female constituents about getting accommodation, but with mixed feelings.

"I see pregnant young girls every week coming looking for a flat, and they're almost invariably on their own. I could count on the fingers of one hand the number of times they've been able to say `Here's my boyfriend.' I mean, someone needs to tell these girls they're not getting a bargain."

A GP based in Ryan's constituency of the south inner city cites one recent case where a single 18 year old girl still living at home came to him for fertility treatment, having been frustrated in her attempts to become pregnant. This was a solitary ease, he admits, but is part of the new culture of the area his client had older sisters who were single mothers too.

"If you're a girl from the poor inner city, why not get pregnant. You get a flat of your own and if you don't have a job, well, being a mother is a job and it gives you status in the community."

Unlike Eoin Ryan, the GP believes that the majority of the "lone" parents are not alone. Which raises the thorny issue of how the Department ascertains that LPA claimants are in fact single parents. "With difficulty," says the Department.

"It doesn't," say people on the ground, like the GP. "In many cases, most cases I believe, the boyfriend is still around. Very often he moves in if he's not already there, and if he's working she domes very well out of it.

"They're just playing the system you'd be mad not to. The Department of Social Welfare doesn't come after these people for cohabiting and they can do quite well for a while. I just feel sorry for the girls because they're losing whatever chances they might have of further education or a career."

Eoin Ryan is more worried "My concern is that in the long term we're creating an underclass, as has happened in the US. We give these young girls accommodation and the lone parents allowance and then they're in a trap. Very few of them are going for further education or training of any kind, and their children are growing up in areas where primary education is badly underfunded. So they're into a vicious circle.

In some of the very poorest areas of the city, he says, "a whole generation of young people has been wiped out and the kids are being brought up by the grandparents". And if it wasn't for the role played by grandparents generally, he believes, the problems, of certain inner city areas would be much worse.

THE point is emphasised by Andre Lyder, project co-ordinator with the St Catherine's Combined Communities Groups in Dublin's Liberties. About 31 per - cent of families in the general area are officially designated "lone parent", but there are two city wards in which the figure is over 50 per cent.

"This area is very deprived anyway. And the sort of services that young single parents need are just not available. There's a major need for things like creche facilities and education projects, but the funding is hard to find."

What happens 10 or 20 years from now?

"That's a big, big question. There has always been a tradition of strong extended families in this area and grandmothers especially are playing a very major role now. But the community is changing a lot. There's a very serious drug problem and you have a lot of young lone parent mothers on drugs. What happens 10 or 20 years from now, I just don't know.