LESS than two months ago, many UN officials and observers were sceptical about Mrs Robinson's chances.

There was consensus that she was the best candidate but that this did not matter: she was a white candidate from the developed world and this would arouse strong opposition from non-western UN members, they believed.

Now the predictions have changed radically. According to a supporter in Geneva: "The underlying hesitation among developing countries about a westerner stops me just short of saying it's in the bag. But so far there is no other high-powered candidate to stop her, and the more her support grows, the more others will be frightened off."

Political differences between the world's rich north and poorer south emerge sharply in the area of human rights and these were expected to cause difficulties for Mrs Robinson. The tension is over what "human rights" means, and the different definitions reflect the socio-economic differences between the developed and developing world.

The west's focus is on individual rights such as free speech, fair trials, freedom from torture and freedom of conscience. The developing and Asian countries like to define human rights as collective: freedom from poverty and the right to social and economic development.

International human rights groups would like the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to take a more robust stance against states that deny human rights to their citizens. Developing countries, and some from the developed world, caution that this approach would engender great hostility to the UN's human rights activity in Africa and Asia, and would be counterproductive.

Developing countries deeply resent lectures from the rich world on how they should treat their prisoners, workers and political dissidents. When the rich states were developing, the argument goes, they did not have foreigners coming in and criticising child labour and prison conditions and demanding change. They ask why, at the same stage of development, they should have to put up with it.

In the face of such divisions, the office of High Commissioner for Human Rights has earned a mixed reputation since it was established in December 1993. Western activists criticised the first incumbent, Mr Jose Ayalo Lasso of Ecuador, for not confronting UN member-states on human rights abuses.

He nevertheless presided over rapid growth in the organisation, which is a department of the UN rather than a separate agency. When Mr Ayalo Lasso took over it had just 12 projects and a budget of £15 million. It now has 450 staff, 400 field projects throughout the world and a budget of some £30 million. The budget was increased through the soliciting of voluntary funding, mainly from western donors, which now accounts for almost half of the budget.

Personnel and financial management in the organisation is regarded as crucial, and Mrs Robinson has little experience of these activities. But sources in the UN Centre for Human Rights say that they could be carried out by a deputy, leaving Mrs Robinson free to be the public face of the UN's human rights effort.

The lobbying campaign on her behalf has concentrated on ensuring that she is not perceived simply as a western candidate. She has been presented as a "non-western western candidate", someone from a small country with no colonial past, and a woman who has had a high profile on development issues.

A MAJOR factor in her favour is that UN blocs which contain the developing countries and represent 85 per cent of the world's population have not yet produced a strong candidate to rival Mrs Robinson.

The Irish strategy is to attempt to create a tide of opinion in her favour, thus making any possible late entrant to the contest see the cause as hopeless. A relatively early decision, ideally around the date of Mrs Robinson's scheduled lunch with the UN Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, on May 23rd, would also suit Mrs Robinson's cause.

Of course Mr Annan theoretically does not have to listen to the Views of UN member-states. He has the right to make the nomination, and the UN General Assembly, which must approve it, would be highly unlikely to vote down the choice of a new Secretary General for such a post. But in reality, major opposition to Mrs Robinson from the developing world and the emergence of a strong developing world candidate could end her chances.

But as yet such a candidate is nowhere to be found. The candidate of the group of Latin American and Caribbean states (GRULAC), the Costa Rican ambassador to the US, Ms Sonia Picado-Sotela, was undermined on Monday when the Mexican and Chilean foreign ministers expressed enthusiastic support for Mrs Robinson.

Some African states suggest the deputy to Mr Ayalo Lasso, Mr Ibrahim Fall of Senegal, should be given the post. He did not earn a strong reputation during his tenure, however, and anyway he has just been appointed to an assistant UN Secretary General post in New York. The residual loyalty to him among some African states, according to a source in Geneva, is preventing an alternative strong African emerging as an agreed candidate.

The Asian group met in Geneva recently and decided to put forward a candidate. A former deputy prime minister of Malaysia, Mr Musa Hitam, also a former chairman of the UN Centre for Human Rights, has emerged as an Asian contender. He is said not to be pursuing the post vigorously.

The eastern group, consisting of Russia, the former CIS states and eastern Europe, has no candidate either.

That leaves the "western European and others" group, of which Ireland is a member. This includes western Europe, the US, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. For the developing world it is the repository of high-minded lectures and interference on human rights. The campaign for Mrs Robinson has tried to ensure that she is not an official EU candidate and is not seen as a standard-bearer for the richest, and smallest, UN bloc.

There is still the problem of China, which has been angered by the decision of 10 EU states - led by Denmark and including Ireland - to table a resolution at the UN Commission on Human Rights criticising China. China would never have been enthusiastic about a western candidate for such a job. The question now is whether it will lobby actively against Mrs Robinson.

A diplomat centrally involved in the Robinson campaign said: "The best thing to do is to try to create a tide of support and then gamble that China will realise that they won't get anywhere by opposing her. They are going to have to work with the next High Commissioner, so there is no point in opposing her if she is going to get it anyway."

That she is a woman seeking a senior post in the UN which is regularly criticised as being top-heavy with senior males is also in her favour.

A decision is expected by July, although it could drag on into the autumn. If she gets the job, her problems will only be beginning. The global divide on human rights presents an enormous challenge to the next incumbent to make the post relevant and give it a higher profile and a meaningful role.

But they said that about the Presidency in 1990.