It promises to be the mother of all Arts Council meetings and it promises to be the mother of all damp squibs. Such is the dangerously wide range of expectations about next Tuesday's special meeting of the Arts Council. No one is sure what to expect, least of all council members. Most, however, seem prepared for the unexpected.

The meeting has been called to discuss the management-style crisis at the council's Merrion Square headquarters in Dublin. The agenda sent to members is bland to the point of stupor, with the devil residing between the lines. Accompanying it are lots of press cuttings about problems at the council.

The best clue as to what will be discussed on Tuesday is the very unusual request that members of the council's executive not attend the meeting. No one spoken to this week can recall an Arts Council meeting where the director has been asked not to attend. That alone has ensured the rapt attention of the State's arts community. Currently it is possessed by the unthinkable - the "dearly wished for" of some, the "they wouldn't dare" of others, - and the overwhelming question, "will Patricia (Quinn, the council's director) survive?" All indications are she will.

The anger felt by many council members towards Ms Quinn seems to be dissipating. This has been helped by dashes of charm and her carry-on-regardless approach of the true survivor. There has also been her seeming, if unstated, willingness to undertake a firm purpose of amendment. And, probably most significantly, there has been a dawning on council members of the appalling vista that would be the alternative. They have become conscious that she has just two more years of her contract to run, albeit with an option to renew. They have realised that ending that contract now would involve paying her two years' salary (£50,000 per annum) plus compensation for damage to her reputation. One source estimated the cost as at least £90,000 net in such circumstance. Just add collateral damage to the council itself and you get the picture.

A possible alternative would be to make Ms Quinn's position untenable by a vote of no confidence, thus forcing her to go "voluntarily". Some weeks ago a council member speculated that were there to be such a vote, then at least 13 (of the 17, including the chairman) council members would vote against her. This week that figure was said to be down to an uncertain six. Ms Quinn is not for moving. So what will the council do? Relent, of course.

One of her staunchest supporters has remained the council chairman, Dr Brian Farrell. He and Ms Quinn have an excellent working relationship, to the chagrin of some "excluded" council members. One of this number is said to have confronted Dr Farrell after a recent meeting for not standing up to her.

Those of like mind feel Dr Farrell is too much under her thumb, too pliable, too trusting of her judgment. "He deals with her like she was a TV producer," said one member, illustrating the degree to which Dr Farrell is at his director's bidding.

Both staff and council members agree on one matter. That Dr Farrell misunderstood the role when he accepted the invitation to be chairman. That he had not expected it to be so "hands on". That he had thought of it as being simply the public face of a glamorous organisation. That he has no "ideology", no "vision thing" where the arts is concerned. And that he is a gentleman. They can be like that. Blood is drawn, liberally but beautifully.

For a journalist, Dr Farrell has unexpected hang-ups, albeit as chairman. He takes a dim view of members talking to the media about council business.

Likewise of reporters asking him about council business. And one of the few things council members are certain he will do on Tuesday is advise them strongly not to talk to the press.

Some feel this is why they have been supplied with so many newspaper clippings in advance of Tuesday's meeting. They believe this has been done to illustrate, not so much the problems at council, as the degree to which details of those problems are being leaked to all-too-willing messengers who should be shot.

His council is deeply divided, one of the most divided in recent times, according to the informed. As well as those among its members who feel "kept out", there are some who misunderstand their role and some who are interested only in their own artistic field. The divisions are disparate and without focus, more "against" than "for" anything.

Dr Farrell believes, it is said, that it is from these ranks of the disaffected that recent leaks emanated. Speculation on that matter is as rife as it is loose.

He is believed to be particularly miffed over the leaking of minutes of the council's September 15th meeting wherein he told the director her stance on a particular matter was "not a resignation issue".

It followed a letter to this newspaper where he asserted, contrary to an Irish Times report, that the director had not "ever offered to resign her position". It was one of two "errors" he wished to correct in the report.

"It is not true that the director, Patricia Quinn, advised an Arts Council meeting that a senior officer's resignation was for personal reasons," was the other. There was no such assertion in the report. It just quoted a council member as saying they had been told the relevant resignation had been for personal reasons.

But Dr Farrell, like Homer, is entitled to nod occasionally. He is beset on all sides. By council members, by staff, even by Ms Quinn herself. Just last week she took him aside to complain about how staff were being treated by council members. Who would be Dr Farrell? There must be a badly stung politician out there somewhere, sticking needles in a doll made in his image.

A forecast. Tuesday's meeting will end with an "as-you-were" outcome. This will be followed by great relief and congratulations on all sides that an earthquake has been so narrowly avoided.

Things will settle. In the not-too-distant future old patterns will reassert themselves and everybody will be astonished that such a thing could happen. Then there's always the unexpected. Not least where the Arts Council is concerned.