Adi Roche's political naivety, or honesty, led her to reveal her candidacy earlier than the Labour leadership intended and prompted a rush in Fianna Fail to ensure that Prof Mary McAleese became the party's nominee. Much of the Labour leadership's presidential election strategy was predicated on Fianna Fail selecting Albert Reynolds as its candidate. Meanwhile, there was, in the words of one party source, "an immovable view in the leadership that nobody in the Labour Party could win".

However, the blueprint to repeat the Mary Robinson success of 1990 by introducing a star figure, preferably a woman who epitomised modern Ireland, ran into difficulties from the start.

RTE's Special Correspondent, Charlie Bird, got wind of the word that the anti-nuclear campaigner might be the party's secret weapon and called her five days before she was due to be unveiled at a Parliamentary Labour Party meeting in Dublin.

The leadership's original plan was that, by the time Roche's identity was revealed on Tuesday, September 16th, Fianna Fail would not have enough time to push through a candidate other than Reynolds when its TDs, senators and MEPs met to select their nominee the following day, Wednesday. Labour strategists reckoned that Reynolds would suffer badly at the hands of this vibrant, attractive woman with a commendable record in assisting the child victims of the greatest nuclear disaster the world had ever known.

But Roche answered the phone to Bird and confirmed that she had been approached by Labour. Though she did not explicitly declare her intention to stand for the Presidency, as far as the veteran correspondent was concerned she would, without doubt, be the party's standard-bearer.

Bird was subsequently contacted by a member of the Labour Party who pleaded with him not to use the story on the basis that Roche had not given a cast-iron guarantee that she would run.

The reporter agreed to hold off for 24 hours and, luckily for him, apart from an oblique reference to Roche in one Sunday newspaper, there was none to her in the media over the weekend as a potential Labour candidate.

By Sunday, All-Ireland hurling final day, Charlie Bird had made up his mind that he could not hold the story back much longer, and it ran as the lead report on the six o'clock evening news.

The arrival of Roche sent the anti-Reynolds camp into a spin, and the offensive to ensure the former Taoiseach would never get into the race went into overdrive in the following 48 hours.

News that Reynolds had been politically eviscerated by a majority of his colleagues in the Fianna Fail parliamentary party shocked nobody more than Labour strategists. Contrary to their expectation, Roche would now be joined in the field by a formidable woman Fianna Fail candidate.

The decision of the Labour leadership in 1990 to approach Mary Robinson for the Presidency is seen as a watershed in the history of the party and marked the beginning of its unprecedented electoral prosperity.

Seven years on, the effort to repeat that feat was undertaken with a search to find another winner. One brain-storming session by Labour heads threw up a raft of names including Judge Catherine McGuinness - for whom there was much internal party support - and the broadcaster Brian Farrell. The list even included the novelist Roddy Doyle, a few women journalists and entertainers.

In the end, under considerable pressure to discover another winner, the leadership went to Roche. What followed was what one source describes as high-octane stuff. She was effervescent, sparkling, open, carried no political baggage - and she looked great.

There was support within the parliamentary party for the idea of Michael D. Higgins becoming the Labour candidate. His old leftwing history, his record as minister for arts, culture and the Gaeltacht and his undeniable eloquence made him a quality standard-bearer in the eyes of many. In the eyes of the leadership he would not, however, win the contest.

He had addressed a meeting of the PLP in Mullingar, on the Wednesday before Roche was declared the party candidate. He was, says one source, "very brave and dignified" and it was clear that he would willingly stand. The leadership interpreted his words as indicating he was not madly anxious and would be happy if another candidate was uncovered.

When Labour representatives set about wooing Roche, they were aware of tensions in the Chernobyl Children's Project that she had co-founded. Her robust managerial style was no secret to them, but they were surprised at the "ferocity, co-ordination and timing" of the storm of criticism that blew up the weekend after her nomination.

Spring's close adviser and senior Labour figure, Fergus Finlay, is adamant a "campaign" was orchestrated to damage her. The fact that the story got into four Sunday newspapers demonstrated that this was not the work of "shambolic amateurs".

"I envy that kind of efficiency," he remarks. "The papers decided this was juicy and they ran it big . . . We were also taken aback at the uncritical way the papers carried the story."

Roche was distressed at the unfolding difficulties in her campaign and was advised by her handlers to "be herself" in interviews. But the damage done to her presidential chances is obvious; she had fallen from top position to third in the ratings, as recorded in the Irish Times/MRBI poll of last Tuesday.

However, her performance on October 30th is deeply important to the political health of Dick Spring. A poor outcome would be "a serious setback" to his leadership and exacerbate existing concerns, sources in the party acknowledge. Victory, on the other hand, would silence his detractors.

Spring's style of leadership came under fire at that PLP meeting in Mullingar, on the grounds that the party is not in touch with its native, frequently disadvantaged, constituency. He was told Sinn Fein, not Labour, is often regarded as the law-and-order party on the drug-ridden streets of some Dublin areas.

The North Dublin TDs, Tommy Broughan, Pat Upton, Roisin Shortall and Sean Ryan form the body of a group in the PLP unhappy that the leadership is not moving in the direction they would wish. On the fringes of this group is Derek McDowell TD and Senator Joe Costello. There is a feeling now that Michael D. Higgins will feel freer to exercise his acerbic tongue, should he wish.

In addition to the leadership's perceived lack of affinity with its traditional core, dissatisfaction also exists in the PLP over the timing of the general election - with disastrous results - as well as a desire to curtail the influence and loquaciousness of non-elected people speaking for the party.

Labour's Dail strength is down to 16 following the death of Jim Kemmy. Higgins is its only TD west of the Shannon. Labour badly needs a win; it's been a while since Spring smelt victory.

But right now, the omens are not as good as they might be. As one party member puts it: "They are trying to turn the clock back to 1990, but lightning rarely strikes twice."