JOHN MAJOR has his backbenchers where he probably likes them best on holiday. And the Prime Minister will follow suit. But Downing is tight lipped about his plans. The guard, briefly dropped the peace, is restored.

No more casual walks from Number 10 to the Commons. No more advance notice of trips to the North. For these are dangerous times.

And while Senator George Mitchell clings tenaciously (or, at any rate, publicly) to the hope that the talks process might yield results, the expectation elsewhere is of an escalation of "the war."

On Tuesday one MP interrupted for conversation to admit some workmen. They were there to install additional security cameras. Did this betoken some specific intelligence?

Reading between the lines, the MP thought the IRA likely to launch high profile attacks on public figures, possibly in September.

The same assessment prompted Scotland Yard recently to throw a protective shield around some prominent Conservatives.

One source suggests there are three or four IRA units operational in Britain as yet undetected by the security services. Given the disparate nature of the bombing campaign since the collapse of the ceasefire, the authorities face an impossible task in anticipating where the IRA will strike next.

But we can take it that this year's Conservative Party conference in the autumn will once again take place in conditions of siege. And in a clear sign of the times, security around Labour's annual gathering twill also be significantly tightened.

October seems a long way off. Between now and then the authorities in the North have to struggle with the demands of the Apprentice Boys' march, and the related problems of the Garvaghy and Ormeau Roads.

Mr John Hume is working flat out to broker a deal mutually acceptable to the Apprentice Boys and the nationalist community in Derry. But following events at Drumcree, sources say "Derry Day" may not be amenable to a purely local solution.

The Irish Government accepts the historic nature of the Apprentice Boys' march, and its significance as a celebration of loyalist heritage and culture. But after the display of Orange muscle in Portadown and elsewhere, the risk, as one source put it, is that the parades issue could become "cantonised". And while Mr Home seeks a compromise, he does so in face of strong nationalist sentiment that the Apprentice Boys should be allowed nowhere near the historic city walls particularly if there is not wider agreement on the conduct of future parades in Portadown and Belfast.

THE HIGH levels of tension on the ground, and the 25th anniversary of internment are further potential complicating factors. The authorities fear an agreement on the Derry march could be blown apart were it, for example, to be preceded by an outbreak of disorder early that morning in Belfast. Authoritative sources say the prospects are "not looking good". And if Derry goes wrong, government sources fear a domino effect on the overall security and political situation in the North.

Dublin and the SDLP are deeply dismayed that the talks process adjourned this week without clearing the way for the start of substantive negotiations in September. And even as Senator Mitchell vowed to return, sources continued to speculate that he could succumb to the lure of the US presidential election by the end of that month.

The most senior unionist participants do not challenge gloomy Dublin or SDLP assertions that the process is going nowhere. To the contrary, some take a positive delight in confirming that assessment. British ministers doggedly maintain a positive air. But they must know the general view is of a government marking time in its dying days.

Sir Patrick Mayhew made much of the most positive decision taken by the parties on Monday - to set a date for their return to Stormont in September. But he had little else to work with. And if the British console themselves that no party can be seen to walk away (undoubtedly a good thing), Irish sources say they "can't point to one thing" which a unionist disposition for serious negotiation and a deal.

Post Drumcree, with its political and diplomatic fall out, Dublin hoped London would press the Ulster Unionists to accept the formula permitting decommissioning of weapons to be considered in parallel with the three stranded negotiations. But the hope proved short lived.

Describing the British performance in the talks as "absolutely pathetic", one source defined what he considered the operational principle: "The Ulster Unionists said no. And once he [Mr David Trimble] had spoken, that was it."

SIR PATRICK Mayhew might chide us not to be so gloomy - but that would appear to be that. It is not just Sinn Fein which argues that agreement on a timeframe is necessary to give the political process dynamic.

Dublin and the SDLP too would like to fast forward the search for a solution. But the assessment is that the unionist parties lack the necessary sense of urgency, while the British lack the necessary energy and capacity.

In all probability, there will be even less of both after the summer break. Even assuming Mr Major is determined to hold out to the last minute, the parties will reconvene in the autumn facing into an "imminent" British general election. And nationalists do not have high hopes of Mr Tony Blair.

Under Tory pressure, the Labour leader has already performed a volte face over Scottish devolution. Should Labour win, the commitment to establish a Scottish parliament within a year could see a new government pinned to the Commons floor by a virulent and united Conservative opposition.

In addition to Scottish and Welsh referendums, Labour is committed to a vote on electoral reform. And of course, within a very short time of taking office, Mr Blair could he landed with the nightmare decision on whether to join a single currency

Even had he the inclination, Prime Minister Blair might have little time for Irish adventures. And the irony is that, at least as far as the North is concerned, key Irish players would hope still to be dealing with the Tories.