IT was meant to be a quiet week. But as Drapier has repeated with some tedium, it is the weeks that are expected to be quiet which prove most troublesome. As thus it was this week.

At one level it was a week of deep nastiness. Rosemary Nelson's murder showed the barbarism in humanity. She was a professional and courageous lawyer who did her best to serve the law and her clients. The attack on her was an attack on the concept of law, and as such struck at the heart of democracy and society.

But it was also the callous cutting down of a mother of three young children whose lives will be for ever changed.

The killing was carefully planned; the target chosen with great cunning. It was intended to provoke retaliation, to further inflame the smouldering sectarian hatreds the Belfast Agreement has not quenched. It is too soon to tell if the evil design will succeed, but one way or other the murder forced us to face the chilling realities we have wanted to brush aside in the overly facile optimism that passes for current debate on Northern Ireland.

Let Drapier be specific. The spate of attacks on Catholics has been an ever-present feature of life over the past months. Drumcree is septic and may be too late to be lanced, so deep has its poison seeped within the system. The Paisleyites have learned nothing, and see no reason to assume responsibility for the future of the whole community.

Most worryingly, the RUC still has enough bad apples, men whose mindset is sectarian - sectarian enough to allow the wider and honest RUC be demonised by those who want to avoid answering their own awkward questions.

And awkward questions there are in plenty. The so-called "punishment beatings", the rackets, the Dalkey robbery, the near-murderous inner-city attacks on witnesses, the persistent reports from reputable security correspondents of dangerous IRA regrouping and rearming, and now Gerry Adams's blunt admission that he cannot get the IRA to decommission.

Drapier remains an optimist about the Belfast Agreement. But this week tested that, and his faith. It reminded him that apart from death and taxes nothing is inevitable and that we are now at the most dangerous time yet. Drapier is not going to "talk up" the crisis, but if ever a further push was needed, it is now.

But from serious crisis to farce, for such is the only way to describe events in the European Commission. There was little sympathy for the over-ighty Commission but there was surprise at the ineptitude with which the whole matter was handled.

A county council chairman would have shown more political skill than did Jacques Santer. But overall, there was a feeling something like this has been coming for a long time, and we may well get a better, more responsive and, dare one say it, more humble Commission as a result.

Talking of humility, didn't Padraig Flynn play true to form all week? His interview with Sean O'Rourke on RTE Radio 1 on Tuesday was classic Flynn. It was a strange mixture of Olympian arrogance, condescension and political astuteness.

The picture of a government approaching Padraig Flynn, cap in hand, asking him to serve again, and of his having to consider the matter carefully before deciding, was too much. There is a real world out there and that is the world in which Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney have to make decisions. adraig Flynn's goose is already well and truly cooked. This week's events have merely put the tape to fast forward - without possibility of rewind.

In Drapier's view all this plays to Bertie Ahern's advantage. He will now be forced to make a decision he was in no hurry to make, but make it against a more favourable backdrop.

For a start, ex-Commissioner Flynn will be just another retired politician, forced to fend for himself as best he can, but as far as Bertie Ahern is concerned, belonging to a different age, a different place, only vaguely remembered. Ask Ray Burke about it.

It is not clear how things will go. Bertie may nominate an interim Commissioner for the remaining seven months. The Commission needs time to sort itself out and it may well serve the Government's interest to have someone there with strong administrative experience, and no personal political agenda, who will help get this important work done.

A civil servant with political skills might fit this bill. Dermot Gallagher is one such. Noel Dorr is also mentioned, as has been the Attorney General, David Byrne, though in his case the appointment might be expected to be more long-term. And then of course there is the possibility that one of our successful former commissioners might undertake the task in a pro-ono capacity. Ray MacSharry is most usually mentioned in this role.

Drapier thinks the ultimate choice must be a politician, and one with clout. There are some around.

But two of them belong to the wrong parties. Dick Spring and Alan Dukes are unlikely to be considered for that reason, but Drapier does not rule them out. Either would make a good fist of it, and the Government could take credit for putting the national interest first and might even end up with an extra Dail seat, though nobody would bet on that at the moment.

Then we have Des O'Malley and Pat Cox. Des O'Malley belongs to a Government party, but in a semi-detached way. He has the experience, toughness and credibility to do a good job and on a good day his seat could be held by the Government parties. But it would need to be a very good day.

Pat Cox is probably the outstanding candidate. In every sense he is on top of all things European and has earned huge respect. The only danger is that he might become too communautaire, but from Ireland's perspective and especially given the designs of the bigger member-states, that might be no harm either.

The trouble for Pat Cox is that, given the bad blood, it might be more difficult for the PDs to support him, but in Drapier's view it would be a gamble worth taking.

The Fianna Fail names are already in the ring, and if form is any guide our next Commissioner will be either Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, Gerry Collins or David Byrne, all well qualified, it has to be said. There will be a question mark over David Byrne's lack of political experience, but such a question mark did not stop Peter Sutherland becoming an extremely good commissioner, maybe the best ever.

Drapier's final word is: in a year of surprises we should not be surprised if we're surprised again.