FOR more than a century unionists have ruled the roost on Belfast City Council. But over the past two decades their majority has declined as the city's Catholic population swells. A loss of just two seats in next Wednesday's council elections would usher in a new administration.

"Writing on the Wall for Unionist Rule", proclaimed an excited Andersonstown News last week as it quoted a warning by the DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson, that "the Tricolour could fly over City Hall".

Unionists hold 27 seats while Sinn Fein, the SDLP and Alliance have a total of 24. These three parties need to win only two new seats between them from unionists for a change of power.

"It wouldn't mean a workers' republic," says Sinn Fein councillor, Mr Mairtin O Muilleoir, "but it would mean a new power sharing arrangement. It would be a huge psychological blow to the unionists if their domination was broken."

Most unionists cooperate with Sinn Fein in the privacy of council; committees but in the public chamber "the DUP tail wags the UUP dog", he claims. Even after 14 years some councillors still haven't accepted the republican presence - "they wouldn't speak to us even if we were all on a bus journey to Marrakesh".

Nationalists complain that they lose out in the allocation of finance. The West Belfast Festival, the North Belfast Cultural Society, and a women's theatre company, Just Us, have all recently lost their funding. Sinn Fein says the council's parks department spends £4 million sterling a year in unionist areas.

But an SDLP councillor, Mr Alex Attwood, says he does not want Green rule to replace Orange rule. "I would like to see a new era of partnership. This would include the rotation of the mayor and deputy mayor posts, equality of funding and a more inclusive culture adopted by the council."

THE election results needed for change are by no means guaranteed. The three non unionist parties must win the required two seats from the unionist parties, not from each other.

The SDLP is widely tipped to pick up a seat from the UUP in the leafy south Belfast Balmoral ward, but elsewhere there seem to be no gains likely which would affect the balance of power.

Alliance could well lose a bent in East Belfast to the fringe loyalists. In the North Belfast Castle ward, the SDLP chairman, Mr Jonathan Stephenson, is battling to retain the seat he took from Alliance four years ago.

Most experienced observers believe the unionist majority in Belfast will remain intact but much depends on the relative turnout in Catholic and Protestant areas.

The UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, has warned against unionist apathy and the DUP campaign slogan in Belfast is "Use Your Vote or Lose Your City".

The battle for the nationalist community will be most fiercely fought in the two West Belfast wards. Sinn Fein leads the SDLP by four seats to one in Lower Falls and by three to two in Upper Falls.

It aims to win all five seats in Lower Falls this time but the SDLP insists that its vote will remain loyal. Sinn Fein is also hoping to take a seat from the SDLP in the more middle class Upper Falls but again the SDLP believes its support will hold.

Sinn Fein is confident that it can build further on the momentum created by Mr Gerry Adams's success in the Westminster election.

"We have the hardest working councillors and people might vote SDLP when electing an MP but they will support us when choosing a councillor," says a republican.

The SDLP says Mr Adams secured a large personal vote which will not necessarily go to Sinn Fein council candidates. West Belfast voters don't want a "one party constituency" and will support the SDLP to retain diversity, an activist predicts.

With the council poll coming only three weeks after the Westminster one, both nationalist parties are dealing with an election weary public. Whoever triumphs depends largely on whoever gets out the vote.

Buoyed by its strong showing in the Westminster poll, the UUP is mounting an upbeat campaign in Belfast, where it is the largest party on the council.

"Over the last four years, we have kept our promise that rises in the rates would remain below inflation. We have contributed to the city's economic regeneration and we have presided over the building of the wonderful new Waterfront concert hall," says UUP councillor Mr Michael McGimpsey.

Mr McGimpsey and his brother Chris are hoping to retain the seats they narrowly won in 1993. Back then, the DUP manifesto was entitled "Unionists Alienated - Answer Back! Get Mad with Mayhew." As the Newsletter recently inquired, with Dr Mo Mowlam enjoying her honeymoon period as Northern Secretary, whom will the DUP get mad with now?

The DUP has a strong constituency service in Belfast and always performs well in the city. The party's pledge to lobby for a free bus service for pensioners is proving popular. The DUP will face strong competition from the fringe loyalists.

THIS is the election for which the PUP and the UDP have been waiting. The PUP will easily outpoll the UDP because its candidates are much more articulate and better known. The UDP is hoping to elect three councillors to Lisburn Borough Council, including its party leader, Mr Gary McMichael, and press officer, Mr Davy Adams.

In Belfast, it should poll strongly in Balmoral, which includes the working class Taughmonagh Estate and Court in the Shankill, but still might not win any seats. The problem is that the PUP and the UDP are both competing for votes in the same areas.

The PUP has an excellent chance of electing three councillors - Mr David Ervine in Pottinger, Mr Billy Hutchinson in Oldpark, and Mr Hugh Smyth in Court. The party also hopes for strong support in Victoria, Castle and Laganbank.

Mr Ervine says that PUP councillors would adopt a down to earth approach. "We will not talk at the people, we will let them talk to us. We will get on with burying the dead, running leisure centres, emptying the bins and sweeping the streets.

"All too often councillors get ideas above their station. Somebody elected on a few hundred votes ends up making mad pronouncements, on grand constitutional issues.

Nationalists believe the character of City Hall for the next four years largely depends on the attitude taken by the new fringe loyalist councillors. "I would hope for a fresh, modern tone but I am pessimistic," says an SDLP councillor.

"No matter how much the fringe loyalists want to move forward, I suspect that the fear of isolation within the unionist community will ultimately hold them back."