THE IRA may have helped Ian Paisley to an important tactical victory in Belfast yesterday by denying support to the former United States senator, Mr George Mitchell, as chairman of the plenary session.

The IRA's resistance to Mr Mitchell's arms decommissioning proposals is well known. So it was hardly surprising when that organisation allowed President Clinton's confidant to be exposed to the combined assault of Dr Paisley and Robert McCartney, with David Trimble coming up from the rear.

It could have been different. Had the IRA declared a ceasefire, not alone would Sinn Fein have been at the talks to support Mr Mitchell nomination, but Dr Paisley and DUP would not have been there. Instead of a fragmented nationalist front, you would have had a divided unionist camp.

It would have taken no great political insight to work this out. For months now, the leader of the DUP has insisted that, if Sinn Fein was present at the negotiations, his party would not attend. In such circumstances, an IRA ceasefire would have effectively doubled Sinn Fein's political muscle. It would also have underpinned Mr Mitchell's appointment and formally internationalised the peace process.

But the IRA hung back, seeking political capital from a media circus staged by Gerry Adams at the gates of Stormont. And, perhaps, quietly hoping the unionists would get them off the Mitchell arms decommissioning hook through their demands for a more "neutral" chairman.

By refusing to call a ceasefire the IRA was playing both sides against the middle: showing Sinn Fein where the power really lay and buying time on decommissioning. It also encouraged the most intransigent elements in the unionist camp to combine against what they perceived to be a common threat.

In his private room, off the conference centre, Mr Mitchell listened to the discussion and heard Ian Paisley and Bob McCartney reject his chairmanship on grounds of religion, nationality and outlook. He was, Dr Paisley implied, a creature of the IRA, a bosom buttie of Gerry Adams and a dangerous "Romanist".

Mr McCartney was more cultivated, but no less damning of the appointment. And Mr Trimble was strongly critical, questioning Mr Mitchell's ability to be impartial - in spite of an earlier, grudging acceptance of the nomination.

The impossible question was posed: "When did you stop beating your wife?" And Mr Mitchell was found to be guilty by association. The three main unionist parties consulted their own prejudices and concluded that, because the former senator's appointment had been supported by the Government, he must be biased.

Political scores were being settled. And Mr Trimble was on the defensive; his tactical thinking and judgment both under scrutiny. Blamed for causing an election which had cost the Ulster Unionists dearly, he was now trying to ditch Mitchell without breaking his word to the British Prime Minister.

John Taylor was digging deep. Having lost the leadership race to Mr Trimble, he had nothing more to forfeit. So, by likening Mr Mitchell's appointment to a Serb guiding settlement discussions in Croatia, he effectively sided with Dr Paisley and Mr McCartney. The Ulster Unionists split on the issue.

Dick Spring and Paddy Mayhew did their best to hold the opening session together. John Bruton and John Major had gone, their finely crafted phrases and hopeful words still resonating in far corners of the building. The chairmen listened and, as the evening wore on, their hearts sank. Dr Paisley and his allies had the bit between their teeth. "Not an inch" was the approach.

But it wasn't uniformly bleak. Representatives of the loyalist paramilitaries had no great difficulty with Mr Mitchell. Nor had the Alliance Party, the Labour Party and the Women's Coalition. And the SDLP was fully in support.

But a man entrusted with the task of finding a consensus must carry weight with some of the big players on both sides. And the three largest unionist parties were hanging tough. There was nothing to be gained by keeping the discussion going. Mr Spring and Sir Patrick decided to cut their losses and prepared for overnight discussions with the parties, on an individual basis, in an attempt to make progress.

Hours earlier, the British Prime Minister predicted that the participants in the talks process would face "terrible problems" in the future as they wrestled with what appeared to be intractable difficulties. And he spoke of the cynics and doom sayers who had written off any chance of making progress. But he could hardly have anticipated such an immediate and negative reaction from the unionists.

He was confident that Mr Mitchell would be accepted as chairman because he was "an outstandingly good choice" and a man of "great integrity". And the governments were determined to press ahead.

John Bruton couldn't have put it better himself. The Taoiseach spoke about the need for courageous leadership and statesmanship. And he appealed to those present not to allow "the opening of the negotiations to get bogged down in recriminations or arguments over procedure".

It was like asking for a puck in the gob. No sooner said than done. It seemed as if the hard work of the two governments was unravelling before the process had even properly started. Nobody thought it would be easy. But few expected it would be quite this difficult.

After yesterday, a lot of reassuring will have to be done, involving both Mr Mitchell and unionist politicians.

Meanwhile, the IRA waits and watches - and prepares an "I told you so" response while contributing negatively to the situation.

John Major's "secret weapon" is all that stands between the people of Northern Ireland and the unthinkable. He described that "secret weapon" yesterday as the determined will of the people for peace and for a negotiated settlement.

Let's hope it works.