The days when time stood still are over in Northern Ireland. The era of a Protestant state for a Protestant people is past. An increasingly self-confident and articulate minority is finding a place for itself under the North's clear blue skies.
Like them or loathe them, nationalist leaders are smart political movers. Critics and even friends of the SDLP leader may sometimes joke about St John, but the jeer has a nugget of truth. The former Derry schoolteacher has established himself as an international statesman.
The Sinn Fein leaders may be regarded with contempt and revulsion by their enemies, but they are attractive to the international media and lords of the US scene: from safe house to White House.
In Britain, a government which was paralysed when it came to the North (and everything else) has been replaced by a confident administration full of pent-up energy and ideas.
New Labour will change constitutions as quickly as it will alter party logos. Tony Blair, with the wind of a huge majority behind him, is clearly determined to sort out the Northern Ireland problem and wipe this blot off Britain's political escutcheon.
If the political parties can't agree among themselves, does anyone believe he will just let matters rest?
This is the scenario confronting the Ulster Unionists as they gather for their annual conference today in Newcastle, Co Down. There is a fork in the road. One sign reads "Engagement"; the other "Isolation".
Either option carries risks and nobody can predict the ultimate outcome. Splendid isolation has its attractions. British governments, even ones with big majorities, come and go. If the game is rigged, as critics of the talks process maintain, then why not stay on the sidelines? Hold firm, hang tough, No Surrender!
For the moment anyway, the main unionist party has taken some hesitant and doubtful steps along the road marked "Engagement". They have entered the room with the hated Sinn Feiners, but the ice is melting very slowly.
There is deep scepticism at the highest level of the UUP that the talks process is going anywhere. Sinn Fein wants a united Ireland and that, as Maggie Thatcher would say, is "out" as far as the UUP is concerned.
The only hope they see is for a deal with the SDLP, but it's very early days yet; at this stage, parties are producing position papers. Soon it is expected the talks chairman, Senator George Mitchell, will tabulate the points of difference and agreement. Then the real talking can begin.
Considering how reluctant it was to sit at the same table as Sinn Fein, some might be surprised at how anxious the UUP is to get to the real issues. It is impatient with the current phase where, in the words of the SDLP's Mark Durkan, the parties are "surfing the agenda".
The reason for this is, simply, that the longer the delay the more time there is for dissidents to peel off and join the Paisley/ McCartney "external faction" of unionism. The DUP and UK Unionists have been holding a series of meetings, including one planned for last night in Portadown, in the heart of David Trimble's constituency.
Senior UUP sources profess themselves unworried by these rallies, making light of the attendances and the political calibre of the dissidents so far produced. But Dr Paisley and Mr McCartney abide.
Insiders say Mr Trimble's speech today is "quite hard-line". Connoisseurs of party gatherings, North and South, will not find this especially surprising. The UUP has often been likened to Fianna Fail, although neither party appreciates the comparison. But they both know there is a time for ringing declarations and another, quieter time for robust bargaining.
The UUP's more politically sophisticated members say it is important to have a Fianna Fail-led government in Dublin if a settlement is to be reached. Fianna Fail in government can deliver; Fianna Fail in opposition can cause trouble.
But there is concern that the current Dublin administration has failed to keep its eye on the ball. There is worry, some would say unwarranted, about how much weight the new Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, carries with the Taoiseach. A more overtly hands-on interest by Mr Ahern himself would probably be welcome.
Not that the UUP has the slightest intention of yielding to what it sees as Fianna Fail's sentimental hankerings for Irish unity. That's not on, as far as unionists are concerned. But they are prepared to go quite a long way concerning internal arrangements - further than they went at Sunningdale. But they pull down the shutters when the all-Ireland dimension is mentioned.
This is where Mr George Mitchell's role could be crucial. All his adeptness and experience will be needed to find that elusive middle ground where the parties can meet, sign on to an agreement and still keep their selfrespect and their grassroots support.
Perhaps this middle ground does not exist. It seemed to have materialised at Sunningdale, but the loyalist workers blew it away like May snow.
The UUP is now more professional than it was in the past. Today's conference is expected to be well-managed, some would say stage-managed, and even slick. The leader's speech will be given before lunch, in good time to make the evening news on television. Constitutional issues will be discussed before the leader's oration, thereby giving him a chance to respond to charges and allegations that he has strayed from the One True Path.
The leadership would probably welcome some mild controversy: it obviates charges of stage-management, helps to ensure that allimportant small-screen coverage and ensures that other talks participants do not take it for granted that the UUP is "sewn-up".
Debates will be short, a la the British Labour Party conference. For the first time anyone can remember there will be "fringe meetings" outside the official agenda. Long-time observers say they detect the influence of the London-based PR guru, David Burnside, in today's arrangements. The old image of UUP politicians as "donkeys wearing sashes" is clearly being refurbished.
But there is a long way to go. Dour dissidents will not be swayed by soundbites. The nightmare scenario for the leaders must be a situation where they are tied into a settlement, a referendum is looming, their own ranks start to wobble and then turn tail.
Even if today's conference is a success for the leadership, as expected, it will still have to face the party executive meeting next weekend. On current form, there should be no major problem there, but some members may want to put down markers for the party's conduct in the talks.
The UUP negotiators can point to their abrasive encounter with Mr Andrews last Monday as evidence of their toughness at the table: some would say that was the reason it happened. But once the conference and the executive meeting are over, Head Teacher Blair will be taking a look at his Northern Ireland charges and will want to be assured they are taking the Stormont process seriously.
Within the next month or six weeks, we are likely to hear less talk about what senior UUP sources called "identities and all that sort of junk" and more about institutional structures. At that point the unionists could become very engaged - but also very hard-nosed. Ulster will fight - and Ulster will drive a hard bargain.
