Vote management was key to Fianna Fail's extra 23 seats

Just when they thought the electorate had forgiven them for playing fast and loose with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in government…

Just when they thought the electorate had forgiven them for playing fast and loose with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in government after the 1992 general election, the voters have given the Labour Party another bloody nose.

It was a targeted strike. Invariably, county and borough county council seats held by old Labour crumbled to dust; the great majority of those held by newly-merged Democratic Left candidates remained solid. The result has changed new Labour into a largely urban party.

You couldn't forecast it from the percentage of votes won by the political parties which, with the exception of the Progressive Democrats and Sinn Fein, moved by less than a single percentage point. But seismic shifts in party representation took place across the State.

Fianna Fail was the big winner, securing 23 extra seats, and gaining outright control of eight county councils. Alliances with Independents at local level could give the party a working majority on a further five councils.

READ MORE

Fine Gael clawed back most of the ground lost in the 1991 elections but failed to make the kind of advances it had envisaged.

Sinn Fein trebled the level of its representation to 21 seats. And the Socialist Party gained two seats for a total of three.

The big losers were the Labour Party, the Progressive Democrats and the Greens. The Labour Party, newly merged with Democratic Left, dropped 24/25 seats (a count was continuing in Laois), amounting to 20 per cent of its total strength. The Progressive Democrats ceded 12 seats, compared to its 1991 performance. And the Green Party dropped five.

Vote management, candidate selection and a good dollop of luck frequently made the difference between winners and losers. The big winners of 1991 became the losers of 1999 and the outcome is certain to feed into the matrix of the next general election.

Percentages of the vote are only broad indicators of the strength and weakness of political parties. The number of bums on seats in council chambers is what makes for real political power and, in that regard, Fianna Fail has done exceptionally well.

Party managers pulled off the same trick in the 1997 general election. On that occasion, they secured 10 extra Dail seats with the same percentage of the vote won in 1992. This time, they garnered 23 extra council seats through an increase of 0.1 per cent in their vote.

In spite of that performance, however, vote management has finite capabilities. And 39 per cent of the popular vote - no matter how it is massaged - cannot translate into the formation of a government without the assistance of a supporting party.

Still, Bertie Ahern will be pleased with the work of Martin Macken, the party's new general secretary. Fianna Fail's outright control of Clare, Laois and North Tipperary councils has been extended to Cavan, Galway, Louth, Mayo and Westmeath. And voting alliances aimed at gaining control of Donegal, Limerick, Kerry, Kilkenny and Meath are being considered.

It was one hell of a performance, given the various negative elements working against the party.

By contrast, Fine Gael secured an increase of 0.8 per cent in its vote but failed to translate that advantage into seats. The final outcome left the party with only seven extra seats, six short of its 1985 total.

The most significant gains made by the party happened in Longford, Meath, Clare and Waterford. And while Fine Gael won three extra seats in Dublin, it failed to overtake the Labour Party as the second largest party in the capital city.

Ruairi Quinn had a dreadful election. Meath was a disaster, where the party lost three seats. And it shed a further seven seats in Kilkenny and Tipperary. Elsewhere across the State, the tide went out in dribs and drabs. When the final count came in, the merged party had held 83/84 seats, compared to a figure of 118 after 1991.

The outlook wasn't entirely black. Labour gained seats in Dublin, where it fought off the attentions of Fine Gael. But it fell back in Limerick and Cork. The election of some high-profile councillors also promised future Dail gains.

The Progressive Democrats did best in Galway, where it took 20 per cent of the city vote. But it lost ground elsewhere and ended up with 25 seats, compared to 37 after the 1991 elections.

Still, Mary Harney has been joined by a number of high-profile young councillors who are very anxious to fashion Dail careers. Depending on the circumstances surrounding the dissolution of this Coalition Government, the next general election may be kinder to the party.

Sinn Fein's gains have already been well ventilated. It pushed up its share of the vote from 2.1 to 3.5 per cent and secured an extra 14 seats for a total of 21. The party took six seats in Monaghan, and two each in Cavan and Leitrim. The other prominent gains were made in inner city areas . It took four seats on Dublin Corporation and two in Dublin South. And it gained a foothold on Cork Corporation.

But the tide wasn't all one way. Sinn Fein lost seats in Donegal and Kildare.

The Green Party was badly affected by Sinn Fein's successes. In the past, candidates for the party benefitted from Sinn Fein transfers. But, on this occasion, the tide was running in the opposite direction and Green candidates contributed to the success of Sinn Fein.

Although the party's vote was only 0.1 per cent lower than in 1991, at 2.5 per cent, the Green Party lost five of its 13 seats.

The only other group to make gains in these elections was the Socialist Party. Joe Higgins was joined by two of his colleagues in the Dublin area and the party stands a chance of a second Dail seat next time out.

For elections where vote shares remained almost static, the reallocation of political power was considerable.