Where have all the movies gone? July, August and September are traditionally the busiest months of the year for film production. In recent years, one might have expected to see four or five features and television dramas shooting in Ireland at this point, with Ardmore Studios booked solid. Not in 1999. With the solitary exception of that old standby, Ballykissangel, nothing is shooting at the moment in the Greater Dublin area (the base for the majority of the Irish production sector). According to Kevin Moriarty, managing director of Ardmore, this is the quietest year since the inauguration of tax incentives and industry support in 1993. "We're not just down, we're decimated," says Moriarty. "Our business is down by at least 50 per cent. We've got Ballykissangel, some commercials and pop videos, but that's it."

Just as worryingly, he says, the gossip grapevine which keeps film technicians informed of possible future jobs in the next few months is silent. "It's not even a case of half a dozen rumours, of which possibly one might happen. There's nothing out there."

So what has happened to the much-vaunted Irish film industry, which only a couple of years ago was being lauded as a symbol of the new, confident Ireland? "There is a cyclical aspect, which is bound to happen at some point," says Moriarty. "But my feeling is that we're suffering from more than that. I don't want to be casting stones at anyone, but the reality is that there has been uncertainty about the future. There are other elements, of course, but Section 481 was the important driving force behind the industry."

The uncertainty derives from the decision by the government earlier this year to extend the Section 481 tax incentive for film production for just 12 months, pending the report by an industry "Think Tank" to Minister for Arts, Heritage, Gaeltacht and the Islands, Sile de Valera, on future strategy. The situation has not been helped by the delay in delivering that report, which was initially due late last year, but will finally be published next Wednesday.

Moriarty, though, believes the problem goes back further. "From my perspective, it started in 1996, right in the middle of the so-called Golden Age, when they started clawing back some of the tax incentives. The level of activity dropped dramatically at that point, and now it's dropped further. We have a potentially very good industry. but 1996 was the starting point for a new period of uncertainty. It was most unfortunate that we shot ourselves in the foot."

The 12-month extension has proved particularly inadequate to meet the needs of the larger, Hollywood productions which might be considering Ireland as a potential location. "You're talking about long-term, strategic planning," says Moriarty. "These are the kind of people who this year will have been planning for productions in 2000 and 2001. Even if positive decisions are made in December, we'll still be suffering the consequences of this next year. When the extra year was announced, the perception was that this was a temporary lifeline. There are negative vibes out there that it's on its way out, although I don't believe that. But, even though the Minister has repeatedly stated her commitment to the industry, there's been a history in the past of a stop-go policy towards film."

Roger Greene is chief executive of the Screen Commission of Ireland, which promotes Ireland overseas as a film location. He agrees that 1999 has seen a serious downturn, and that Ireland is already out of the running for many of next year's projects, although he believes some of the problems can be ascribed to global factors, such as the increasingly aggressive competition from Australia and Canada for international productions. "But, from our own point of view, the holding job on Section 481 has certainly rattled a lot of producers. I have a letter from 20th Century Fox making that very point."

Moriarty agrees. "The Americans like to know what's happening, and these reports of lack of enthusiasm will filter back. This is a very nomadic industry, and people will chop and change quite easily. The perception for a while was that this was a country committed to film-making, but the perception recently has been more negative, whereas Britain now has a very positive image. We have a difficulty when talking to people; they're looking at a more established industry in the UK, and there may be more reasons now to locate there. The British are now signalling that they want to help in any way they can to bring productions in."

Certainly, the increasing attractiveness of the UK as a location, with new tax incentives allied to a much larger, more developed industry, must be having some effect. It has also been claimed that some British producers have been spreading the word that filming in Ireland is a bad idea, with high costs and restrictive labour practices. "We've not been helped by the badmouthing of our industry," says Greene, who is currently involved in the negotiations on the one big production which Ireland is pinning its hopes on for next year - Band of Brothers, the Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks-produced, 13-part second World War series for the American cable channel, HBO. The producers have narrowed down their possible bases for Band of Brothers to just two options - Ireland or the UK. "They're being told in Britain that there's `unreasonable behaviour' in Ireland, particularly among the craft unions," according to Greene.

There's some truth in those allegations, believes Robert Walpole of Treasure Films, who produced the crime comedy I Went Down and is currently in post-production on Saltwater, the directorial debut of writer Conor McPherson. "There's a kind of two-tier industry here at the moment. The public perception is of the Bravehearts and Private Ryans, and those things are important for training people and bringing money into the country. If there is a massive amount of incoming productions, then that causes problems, but I don't see myself in opposition to them - they're a necessary part of the industry. "The negative side is that I'm faced with rates that just aren't sustainable. There's been a general inflation here in rates, which make the UK more competitive. They also have more competitive working practices. What will really build a vibrant Irish film industry is the indigenous films developed with talent here, but I find it's getting harder to cut deals. A lot of people think I'm making a lot of money, which I'm not, and I don't feel any slack is being cut for the lower-budget indigenous films."

Walpole is critical of the working practices of the "craft" unions - the painters, carpenters and, particularly, the electricians in Ireland. "You can hire an electrician in the UK for £850 a week all in, but you'd need a degree in astrophysics to understand the electricians' rates here." He cites the example of Blow Dry, a British-set feature film which I Went Down director Paddy Breathnach is shooting this autumn, and which Walpole and Breathnach hoped to shoot partly in Ireland. "I was looking at rates and costs with a view towards shooting part of the film here. But I just couldn't tell the producers how much the electricians would cost, because of the Byzh developing writing talent," says Robert Walpole. "I think that if you were to look at the equivalent support systems in the UK or Australia and compare their success rates, we'd come out very well."

There has been little indication on what recommendations the Think Tank's report has made to the government, although it will be little surprise if it argues for the renewal of Section 481 at its pre-1996 levels for the next seven years. There are rumours of a recommendation for a levy on cinema seats to help finance the industry - a strategy used in other European countries, but likely to be frowned on by the Department of Finance here. The report will probably emphasise the cultural importance of the film industry, while arguing that it's just the sort of labour-intensive, high-skilled, high added-value activity which the State is keen to support in other areas, like IT. "It would be a mistake for the industry to sit back and think that the recommendations of the report will be adopted by the government," says Greene, who is confident, though, that Section 481 will be retained.

Meanwhile, film technicians who had become accustomed to a very comfortable level of income are finding themselves having to adjust their expectations this year. "There's a lot of people in the industry who haven't experienced this before," says O'Neill. "The profile of the workforce has changed, anyway. It's much more career-focussed than passion-driven. If they're not making the money, some of them will move on. But there are others who are completely dedicated to it, who wouldn't do anything else."