After an election campaign that has seen Sinn Féin surf the wave of a public mood for change, the party is on the brink of a breakthrough that promises to transform the Irish political landscape.
If anything like the numbers in today's poll is replicated by the actual results of Saturday's general election, then Sinn Féin will join Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in the large party bracket, elbowing their way firmly into the government formation process, if not this time, then certainly in the future.
With the left-wing vote growing – though still utterly fractured – and the centre and centre-right vote declining, a further realignment of Irish politics, the third in three elections since the economic crash of 2008-11, is now in the offing. This is change, right here, before our eyes.
So what does it mean? First some context, and then some caveats.
The increase in the Sinn Féin vote today, making it the most popular party for the first time in the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI series, is a huge milestone for the party. Now it is true that Sinn Féin have been nearly here before – in October 2018 and in March 2015, the party hit 24 per cent – but this is the first time it has hit the 25 per cent mark and the first time it has been in first place.
First place! If you had suggested it a few weeks ago, you’d have been laughed at – not least by Sinn Féin itself which (understandably) was bracing itself for another difficult election, after significant reverses in recent years. The most important jump for the party is in Dublin, where it goes from 14 to 24 per cent.
Surge
But why? Why has Sinn Féin suddenly surged? The data in the poll doesn’t tell us that. But any observer can see that Mary Lou McDonald has put in a stellar performance, with clear and resonant messages about change. A large part of the electorate has been looking for change – and McDonald and her party have caught their imagination.
Many voters may be more definite about what they want to change from, than what they want to change to – but McDonald has caught their mood with perfect pitch. Not too many specifics, mind you, but that has probably helped.
But caveats are necessary; they always are. Sinn Féin faces two main headwinds in trying to turn 25 per cent of the vote a week before polling to 25 per cent of the seats in the next Dáil (a return that would see the party almost double its Dáil representation, by the way).
The first is a problem that the party has seen before – a fall-off in support as polling day approaches. This seems to have been driven by two principal forces: lower turnout among the party’s core supporters and a sense among voters that they will not be in the frame when it comes to government formation. To these you can probably add trepidation among better-off voters about the Sinn Féin economic plans – a message that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will hammer in the coming days.
Secondly is a problem that the party could be forgiven for not seeing coming – it has too few candidates to capitalise on this much support. As a result, a lot of Sinn Féin votes will go to waste – constituencies where the party could perhaps have won two seats, where it will win one, with one candidate. Having too many votes is a good problem to have, of course, but the lack of candidates will diminish the return.
Party discipline
Having too many votes is not a problem faced by Fine Gael; rather the opposite. The party will mount an all-out effort in the coming days to save its seats, but it now risks the collapse of discipline in the constituencies, a development which would see Fine Gael TDs target each other for the party’s diminishing votes, rather than their political opponents. That would compound the damage.
A late recovery driven by middle-class concerns about Sinn Féin in government is not at all beyond the bounds of the possible; but it seems unlikely to change the general direction of the campaign. Fine Gael’s great fear is that those voters migrate not home to its candidates, but to Fianna Fáil who will now claim to be the only party that can stop Sinn Féin sweeping the boards. Fine Gael’s inability to get its economic message across has been its undoing.
Fianna Fáil support slips by two points today but on the basis of these numbers – and taking into account Sinn Féin’s difficulty in translating its support into seats – Micheál Martin is poised to lead the largest party in the next Dáil. The party will also (vociferously) point out that it has frequently been underestimated in pre-election polls - the opposite of the Sinn Féin issue. There’s no guarantee this pattern will repeat itself, of course, but it seems more likely than not.
An on-the-day boost of a couple of percentage points for Fianna Fáil – allied to a strong ground game and careful ticket management of the constituency tickets – could see Fianna Fáil in a commanding position in the next Dáil. Nine years after the voters almost terminated the party with extreme prejudice, that would be a remarkable turnaround.
The smaller parties have found it hard to get into the election campaign, and their numbers today – trundling along at more or less the same level they have been for the past few months – reflect this. The Green Party's hopes of a wave of support, sparked by the results of the local and European elections last year, are as yet unrealised. They can expect some seat gains in Dublin, but the fact is that climate change has not registered as an important issue with the public in this campaign. The Labour Party – down one today – remains in the fight of its life in a handful of constituencies.
