Failure to secure a strong outcome at Cop29 will heighten concerns among people across the planet that they are being left “in an unsafe, dangerous world” with climate change going unaddressed, Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan has warned.
Speaking after arriving in Baku, Azerbaijan for the UN climate talks, Mr Ryan said Ireland was supporting a “high ambition coalition”, numbering 25 countries, in an attempt to forge a more ambitious outcome. This would go beyond providing money for climate-ravaged countries and include far-reaching reforms of the global financial system, he added.
On a lack of support from rich G20 countries and the absence of global leaders, Mr Ryan said: “Climate change has gone down the order of political priorities ... for a variety of complex reasons; there is conflict in the world.
“But if we don’t get agreement, it will shoot back to the top of political priorities because our populations would rightly say, ‘So what are you going to do? Are you going to let the world burn? Are our children going to live in an unsafe, dangerous world?’” he asked.
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While the main agenda item was agreeing a scaled-up climate finance target to support vulnerable countries, Mr Ryan said that in a strange way the US election outcome – with Donald Trump winning – prompted countries to consider other issues which could lead to a strong outcome.
“It’s going to be very difficult. Discussing money always is, but the higher ambition coalition sets the path ... we need to follow that in the next 10 days,” said the Green Party politician, who is leading negotiations on adaptation measures to help countries prepare for the inevitable impact of global warming.
At a meeting on Wednesday of the coalition, leaders confirmed commitment to rapidly cutting carbon emissions while moving away from fossil fuels and keeping global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees. The coalition – as in past Cops – is led by small island developing states but includes other developing countries, the EU and Canada.
Countries opting out of climate agreements, as the US is expected to do, would return to the fold, Mr Ryan said, when they realised they were falling behind in economic development because of a failure to decarbonise and increase renewables.
“I don’t believe any country, be it the United States or others, can put a veto or block on what we need to do to make progress.”
Cop29 is seeking to raise climate finance from $100 billion towards $1 trillion a year to help countries build climate resilience and scale-up renewables.
Mr Ryan declined to indicate what would be an acceptable figure, but it was likely to be the “capstone” at the end of negotiations. He said reform of the global financial system was just as important as developing countries were paying up to four times the interest rates charged in wealthy countries and were frozen out of markets.
UN secretary general António Guterres told the meeting “the next five years will be decisive. And the next 12 months must get us on the right path ... to reduce emissions 9 per cent every year to the end of this decade to keep 1.5 alive, to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, to unlock finance, fund loss and damage, and boost adaptation.
“We are seeing glimmers of progress. When the Paris Agreement was adopted, we were heading for a 4-degree temperature rise. Today’s policies are taking us closer to 3 degrees. We have a new Loss and Damage Fund and agreements to boost adaptation financing.”
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