With each passing hour the risk that the 2024 UN climate talks in Baku will end in failure is becoming more likely as tensions between negotiating countries persisted throughout Saturday, with no sign of a revised “decision text” for the lead negotiator.
The main differences were over the terms and conditions of potentially $300 billion to be paid annually by rich countries to developing countries to 2035, and a possible weakening of commitments on transitioning away from fossil fuels secured last year.
At one point the Alliance of Small Island States and the Least Developed Countries said they wanted a guaranteed 30 per cent of climate finance, and then walked out of a meeting – though they later said they would remain at the talks in Azerbaijan to negotiate on other issues.
In a highly unusual move civil society groups urged the key G77 and China group of developing countries to follow suit based on the unfairness of what was on the table in the form of a climate finance goal.
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“There’s no point in accepting a bad deal if it’s going to result in the deaths of the climate-vulnerable people on the front lines,” said Mohamed Adow of the think tank Power Shift Africa – a leading representative of African countries.
Concerns about a weak outcome, or even no deal, were heightened after some ministers left the talks to return to their home countries, though their national delegations continued to seek a last-minute breakthrough.
The Cop29 presidency, nonetheless, convened a late evening plenary of all parties, and outlined what had been agreed by the parties, though it was unclear if this will be the final formal meeting.
It confirmed that Governments have reached a deal on carbon markets at Cop29, paving the way for country-to-country carbon trading and the creation of a regulated global market to meet Paris targets. Further technical rules will need to be sorted in 2025 but this is a major boost to carbon trading proponents following years of controversy.
Earlier German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock expressed frustration with the progress in an audio statement over WhatsApp. “We are in the middle of a geopolitical power play by a few fossil fuels states,” she said. “They are playing on the backs of the poorest and most vulnerable countries.”
Many negotiators said the Azeri Cop29 presidency, which is hosting the talks, was at risk of losing control of the process, with dozens of delegations due to leave in the coming hours.
Speaking after an EU co-ordination meeting Ireland’s Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan said the EU wanted a deal. “We can get a deal; it’s in everybody’s interest,” he added.
He said an adaptation paper was agreed on Friday and a really significant breakthrough on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on carbon markets across the line, “but we all know we have to get agreement on climate finance”.
The $300 billion from developed countries being put on the table was a “cornerstone building up to $1.3 trillion, Mr Ryan said.
Asked who would be responsible if Cop29 failed to secure a good outcome, he said it would be all 196 countries present in Baku. A strong deal could include “bring climate and development together” and free up the right kind of finance for developing countries to enable them build resilience and transition to clean energy.
Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, Panama’s special representative for climate change, put the blame for the disarray on the presidency, but said offers by the rich nations were still inadequate. “If needs are $1.3 trillion for money flows from rich to poor then $300 billion is crumbs,” he said.
Large wealthy countries agreed to increase the financial offer to help developing nations tackle the climate crisis to $300 billion a year as ministers met through the night in a bid to salvage a deal.
The Azeri hosts were reported to have secured this outcome at a meeting of a small group of ministers and delegation heads, including China, the EU, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, the UK, US and Australia, on the key areas of dispute.
UN secretary general António Guterres was ringing round capitals to push for a higher figure. Japan, Switzerland and New Zealand were understood to be among the countries resistant to the $300 billion figure.
A $300 billion offer would still fall well short of what developing countries say is necessary, and would likely still draw sharp criticism if included in an updated text expected later on Saturday.
Several ministers from wealthy countries have argued that a deal may be easier now than next year when Donald Trump will be US president and right-wing governments could be returned at elections in several countries, including Germany and Canada – and they do not want to make a commitment they cannot meet.
On the $300 billion Laurie van der Burg of Oil Change International said: “This is embarrassing. The increase from $250 billion to $300 billion a year is not a meaningful increase from the previous $100 billion by 2020 goal that rich countries failed to meet. What’s more this is not debt-free finance. It allows rich countries to dodge the climate debt they owe to the Global South by relying on the private sector, creating a debt trap for countries most vulnerable to the climate crisis.”
Research was clear that the Global South needs trillions to meet climate goals, phase out fossil fuels, and to brace itself for and recover from climate impacts, she added. “Rich countries must seriously step up and pay the trillions they owe to the Global South. They can raise over $5 trillion every year for climate action if they end fossil fuel handouts, tax the super rich and change unfair global financial rules.”
Irish delegate Jessica Dunne, representing young climate activists at Cop29, said the current package, if adopted, would have terrible consequences for developing countries as a lot of the money was tied into private finance.
“We want grant-based finance. We agree with African leaders what is being offered is a joke. It’s starting to be genuinely insulting to the developing world,” added Ms Dunne who is a representative of the Alliance of Non-governmental Radical Youth.
This was her fourth Cop, she said, and it was best summed up by the shock felt by fellow delegates on Friday after the Cop29 presidency issued its proposed text which was totally inadequate. “We thought last year was a blip but this is becoming the new normal. Mary Robinson’s call for reform of the process could not be ringing more true in these halls now.” - Additional reporting Guardian
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