Ireland’s current National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) remains far from sufficient to meet its climate commitments, an assessment by the European Commission has found.
Although investment needs of €119 billion - €125 billion are outlined in the plan, “there is no explanation of how this will be funded or whether a financing gap exists”, it concludes.
Ireland remains off course for its 2030 climate targets, with its NECP projecting a 25.4 per cent emissions reduction, well below the legally binding 42 per cent target under the EU’s key “effort-sharing regulation”. This sets national climate targets for emissions in road transport, buildings, agriculture, waste and small industries.
The NECP outlines each EU member state’s strategy to meet its climate and energy targets for 2030, including emissions reductions, renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency.
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The commission’s assessment evaluates whether these plans are sufficient and credible, offering guidance on gaps, shortcomings and areas for improvement. It plays a critical role in holding governments accountable and ensuring collective progress toward EU climate goals.
Its assessment was released on Wednesday, the same day the Environmental Protection Agency published updated emissions projections for achieving Ireland’s 2030 climate targets – “which together offer a stark and urgent warning about the widening gap between Ireland’s climate commitments and actual delivery”, according to Environmental Justice Network Ireland (EJNI).
[ Ireland’s emissions trend ‘alarming and shocking, with actions reset required’Opens in new window ]
Ireland is projected to achieve a reduction of just 23 per cent in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared with a national target of 51 per cent.
EJNI director Dr Ciara Brennan said: “This is another clear signal that Ireland’s climate plans are not on track. The commission’s assessment confirms what Irish civil society has been saying for some time. Ireland is still far from meeting its 2030 climate and energy targets, and its NECP has missed a critical opportunity to make necessary course corrections.”
The commission noted Ireland’s renewable energy target was raised, but short-term delivery lags. “While the 2030 target was increased to 43 per cent, interim milestones for 2025 and 2027 fall short.”
The plan lacks specific targets for buildings and district heating, “with many measures relying on speculative technologies and unclear timelines”, it finds.
Agriculture measures, it says, fall short on ambition and feasibility. “The plan leans heavily on technologies still in development and lacks incentives for uptake. Crucially, it avoids deeper reforms such as reducing dairy herd size or diversifying agricultural systems.”
Land-use emissions are rising, with Ireland projected to miss its target by 1.36 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. “The plan lacks robust monitoring and credible data, undermining the reliability of projected [carbon] removals,” the commission concludes.
The Government is criticised for having no clear plan to phase out fossil fuel subsidies.
Its assessment may not compel an immediate revision of the NECP, but reinforces legal concerns already raised by EJNI and others, Dr Brennan said. The persistent delivery gaps, especially in agriculture, energy efficiency and land use, leave the Government exposed to potential infringement procedures, she warned.
The findings have consequences for Ireland’s social climate plan, due by June 30th, which must be consistent with the NECP to unlock EU funding.
In November 2024, EJNI joined a coalition of NGOs from other EU states to call on the commission to take legal action against what they identified as noncompliance EU laws in the updating of NECPs. The action highlighted widespread deficiencies in NECPs from France, Ireland, Germany, Italy and Sweden.
