A winter of rolling surges in serious respiratory infections, measles and a possible mpox outbreak lies ahead, health experts are warning, as the Health Service Executive (HSE) prepares to ramp up vaccination programmes, including a new initiative targeting newborn babies.
Vulnerable groups should take up “every vaccination on offer” as the HSE “prepares for the worst”, a leading immunologist has said.
A spokeswoman for the HSE said a high incidence of Covid-19, influenza and RSV [respiratory syncytial virus] are expected in a “multi-pathogenic” winter. “It is also anticipated that the challenges we have faced during summer periods due to suboptimal measles and pertussis [whooping cough] vaccine uptakes are likely to continue through the winter period,” she added.
The warnings come in the wake of increased Covid-19 transmission through the summer – unusual as the virus has abated in previous summers – due to the more infectious nature of the FLiRT variant which dominated since the spring, and increased number of large global gatherings including the Olympics and Paralympics in Paris.
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The latest data from the National Wastewater Surveillance Programme, which monitors the levels of Sars-CoV-2 (which causes Covid-19) in sewage, shows the viral load is “still high”, according to the HSE. Other indicators such as hospital admissions indicate the summer peak has passed and incidence is falling.
The HSE spokeswoman said preparations were under way to enhance co-ordination between services for vulnerable populations, including residents in nursing homes, across primary care, community and acute services. A programme to “enhance adherence to infection prevention and control measures across settings” would be rolled out; plans for an autumn and winter Covid-19 and ‘flu vaccination programme for recommended groups was planned; and a new “pathfinder programme” would introduce immunisation to newborn babies during the RSV season.
Given the unpredictability of Covid, the HSE and the general population should “be cautious and prepare for the worst”, warned biochemist and expert in immunology Prof Luke O’Neill. “We have to regard Covid now as another virus that causes respiratory illness. It has joined RSV, flu and the common cold in the rogues’ gallery of viruses. The difference is Covid does seem to cause more persistent symptoms than others, causing long Covid. That is more troublesome for people, for our health system and the economy, with people out of work.”
He said people should “absolutely take every precaution and vaccination on offer” to protect themselves and the health system. Because Covid is more changeable than flu it makes predictions about how infectious or debilitating a new winter variant is more difficult.
“You can see where the concerns are coming from. The HSE will look at Australia where they have had their winter, where there has been a flu surge and a slightly more infectious variant of Covid. Will there be another variant? We don’t know. It’s hard to predict what the numbers will be like, but it’s better to be cautious and prepare for the worst.”
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