Recent opinion polls suggest that there will be an increase in the number of independent TDs returned to Leinster House after the next general election. Last June, as the work of the various tribunals uncovered aspects of political corruption and the Coalition Government persisted with the appointment of Mr Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Central Bank - which is again in the news - the electorate exhibited signs of growing disillusionment with the major political parties. There was a sudden surge in support for the smaller opposition parties and a full ten per cent of the electorate indicated they would vote for Independents and others.
A number of potential candidates are keeping their powder dry in advance of firm intelligence on when a general election will be held. In that regard, the interviews published in The Irish Times last week, involving the four Independent TDs who support the minority Coalition Government, have confirmed that they are no immediate threat to its stability and are looking forward to securing additional Government spending in their constituencies during the next year or two.
That said, they are prepared to use their positions when local issues hit the headlines. Yesterday the Kerry South TD, Mr Jackie Healy-Rae, sought a meeting with the Taoiseach to discuss the threat to Aer Lingus flights from Dublin to Kerry. Overall, the Coalition is more likely to end through the withdrawal of the Progressive Democrats than as a result of defections by Independents. This should not come as a surprise. After all, three of the four TDs involved - Mr Healy-Rae, Mr Harry Blaney and Ms Mildred Fox - come from strong "Independent Fianna Fail" backgrounds, with Mr Blaney explicitly claiming the title.
The fourth TD, Mr Thomas Gildea, won a traditional Fianna Fail seat in Donegal South West, but was ignored by the Government for 15 months, until changing Dail arithmetic made his support necessary. Since then, he claims to have secured £31 million in funding for the constituency. All four TDs acknowledge that they work closely together and have similar outlooks on a range of issues.
And they make a very homogenous group. They stand in contrast to the remaining Dail Independents, such as Mr Tony Gregory, Mr Michael Lowry and Mr Seamus Healy. The electorate should be aware of these differences when contemplating their future voting strategies. The stability the four TDs brought to Government - and the benefits that flowed to their constituencies - might not be repeatable with a different Dail arithmetic. A significant increase in the number of non-aligned TDs holding the balance of power would, of necessity, have a short-term destabilising effect on politics.
But that does not mean the electorate should ignore independent candidates. Change and renewal is as important for the political system as for any other business. And political parties respond actively to external pressures. Voters should, however, take care to examine the political credentials of the candidates campaigning under the title of "Independent" to ensure it is not just a flag of convenience. After that, they should favour those with established records of community service.