North and South

Introducing the North and South project: A series presenting unbiased information on the unification question

Surveys and deliberative forums examine the state of public opinion in the Republic and Northern Ireland

This year’s project consists of two opinion polls conducted simultaneously in Northern Ireland and the Republic. Photograph: Getty Images
This year’s project consists of two opinion polls conducted simultaneously in Northern Ireland and the Republic. Photograph: Getty Images
Pat Leahy
Fri Feb 07 2025 - 06:00

Beginning today, and continuing over the coming days and weeks, The Irish Times will publish the third annual findings of a major research project into attitudes to a possible future united Ireland and related issues both in the Republic and Northern Ireland.

The North and South series is a collaboration between The Irish Times and ARINS (Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South), a joint research project of the Royal Irish Academy (RIA) and the Keough-Naughton Centre for Irish Studies at the University of Notre Dame.

This year’s project consists of two major, in-depth opinion polls conducted simultaneously in Northern Ireland and the Republic.

These were jointly funded by The Irish Times and ARINS. In addition, two daylong deliberative forums were held: one in the North and one in the South, sponsored by the RIA and the Keough-Naughton Centre.

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The overall aim of our collaborations and research is to provide independent and unbiased information on the state of public opinion in both jurisdictions on the constitutional future of the island, especially what influences the views of people, and how people may react to a united Ireland, if it were to happen.

The aim is not to bolster the case either for Irish unity or maintaining the Union with Britain, but rather to inform debate and consideration of the issue with a reliable picture of what people are thinking – and how that thinking may develop in the future.

Alongside the usual surveys, this year we held deliberative forums to consider in depth possible models of government formation in a new unified Ireland. A forum held in Belfast on September 21st, 2024, brought together a diverse sample of Northern Ireland’s population, replicated on September 28th, 2024, in Athlone with a diverse sample of the Republic of Ireland’s population.

The questionnaire for the surveys was designed by John Garry, Brendan O’Leary, Jamie Pow, Dawn Walsh and the ARINS public opinion committee, together with Pat Leahy of The Irish Times. The research was conducted by market research companies Ipsos in Northern Ireland and Ipsos B & A in the Republic.

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Both surveys were conducted among a representative sample of at least 1,000 people across all constituencies in each jurisdiction. Fieldwork was conducted in respondents’ homes between August and October 2024. The accuracy level is estimated to be plus or minus 3 per cent. Once the series is concluded, the data will be made publicly available. The forums were organised by Garry, O’Leary, Pow and Walsh.

This is the third year of the collaboration between ARINS and The Irish Times. Reports from the past two years can be found here.

Previous subjects covered in the research include attitudes in the South to the possible cost of unification, changes to the symbols and emblems of a new united country and potential future models of governance and constitutional arrangements.

John Garry is Professor of Political Behaviour and Director of the Democracy Unit at Queen’s University Belfast.

Brendan O’Leary is Lauder Professor and Chair of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, an Honorary Member of the RIA, and Honorary Professor of Political Science at Queen’s University Belfast.

Jamie Pow is a Senior Lecturer in Political Science at Queen’s.

Dawn Walsh is an Assistant Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations, and Director of the Centre for Peace and Conflict at University College Dublin.

Pat Leahy

Pat Leahy

Pat Leahy is Political Editor of The Irish Times