Europe is breathing a sigh of relief today after pro-European centrist Emmanuel Macron emerged above Marine Le Pen in the first round of the French presidential elections yesterday.
With the two candidates going head to head in the final vote on May 7th, Irish Times Abroad asked readers living in France for their reaction and predictions. Who will win? If they could vote, would they cast their ballot for Macron or Le Pen? What's the mood like where they live? And how important is this election for for France, for the European Union, or for them personally?
Below is a selection of the responses we received.
Rebecca Ryan, Paris: ‘There is no good candidate, only one that is certainly bad’
I’ve been in Paris for four years, working as a post-doctoral researcher at an institute for children with rare genetic diseases. Though the institute is quite multi-national, I am surrounded by French people, and so I have a window into the general mood (among scientists at least!) regarding the election. What’s interesting as an outsider is both how politically engaged and vocal French people of all ages seem to be, but also, for this election, how lost. Though everybody seems united against Marine Le Pen, that’s been the only sure thing in this demographic. There is no good candidate, only one that is certainly bad.
Last week I saw colleagues doing online surveys to try and find out which candidate could align best with their own beliefs, as their traditional party loyalties have been shaken by scandal and dishonesty. With (Republican candidate) François Fillon, it seems the lies have been harder to take than the scandal itself, though his remarkable recovery to take almost 20 per cent of the vote in round one is a testament to how bewildered voters are.
A big worry has been that the continued terror threat would mobilise people to vote for Le Pen, as we've seen both for the Brexit and Trump campaigns, fear can be a powerful tool. Yet it seems that French people are both resilient and defiant here in the capital, refusing to be scaremongered into voting for what the Front National leader represents, and instead claiming that this election is merely an echo of the 2002 campaign for the Le Pen dynasty - though she has reached round two the end result is a foregone conclusion: anyone but Marine. French voters are acutely aware that the world is watching, and that justly or not, their choices now represent a major tipping point for the future of European politics.
Amy Stapleton: ‘I am not surprised she has made it this far’
I have been living in the North of France for almost five years and for the past three I have been working on the ground on inclusion projects with the young people, migrants, refugees and asylum seekers arriving in this region.
In the region of the Hauts de France, we had Le Pen (extreme right) and Mélénchon (extreme left) voted as number 1 and 2, with Macron (extremely new!) coming in a close third.
This election is highlighting what is already being shown around the world: people are disillusioned with the current political system and want a change. Although they all have differing policies, these three candidates reflect this exact situation, particularly in this region.
In Pas de Calais, where the situation is extremely tense regarding the refugee camps, Le Pen got 34 per cent, highlighting the fear of the “other” and the anger with the way the country is being led.
In the Nord, Le Pen and Mélénchon were pretty close with 28 to 21 per cent, showing the divide between the voters, but also one similarity: the desire for change. Along with many of my friends (French and non-nationals), I am extremely disappointed to be living in a country which can vote Le Pen into the second round with over 20 per cent of the votes. However, with the current climate of polarisation, discrimination, hate speech and dehumanisation, not only in France but across Europe, what may be most worrying is that I am not surprised she has made it this far. What else can we really expect?
Ciara Maitra, Paris: ‘In St Denis they will vote for the unknown Macron’
“We don’t have a choice,” one of the women who works in my building just told me wearily. “She (Le Pen) is deadly,” says another. In St Denis where I live, the most diverse and deprived area of Paris where unemployment is twice the national average, people are resigned to the fact that whoever is elected, is not elected for them. Those in the banlieues (suburbs) in Seine -St Denis come last in the eyes of French politicians. The only time they are spoken about is with the ultimate disdain and disapproval. The gunman from last Thursday’s attack on the Champs Elysée was from this department. The apartment where the terrorists hid out after the November 2015 attacks is minutes from my apartment. There is an Us vs Them mentality.
Neither Marine Le Pen and her anti-immigrant, anti-Islam polices, or the former Rothschild’s banker Macron campaigned here. There was no point, no one here would vote for them. Last night’s result has changed that and those who will not abstain from voting will vote for the unknown, so far un-scandalised Macron. “En Marche!” is his slogan. I can only hope he doesn’t leave St Denis behind.
Martin Loughrey: ‘We all thought Brexit didn’t stand a chance’
I have lived in France (now with my wife and two French-born children) for almost nine years. We have our own business selling modular kitchen solutions.
France now finds itself at a crossroads where it has to take a risk - the Young Gun, or populist, far-right Le Pen. Either choice is risky, but I think Macron will win by a comfortable margin. He is young and inexperienced for the position, but if he can unite both Right and Left for the good of France, then he has the potential to be an excellent president who can do things that no Socialist or Conservative president could ever achieve.
For me personally, the result is important because the more stability there is, the better the economy runs. The French tend to cut personal spending when there is uncertainty, and that could have a huge impact on our business. We normally see a drop in business for a few months before elections as people put plans on hold while they wait to see how the election pans out.
The French don’t like risk, and are generally uncomfortable with change. They will see Macron as less of a risk, and he’ll seek less extreme change. Then again, we all thought Brexit didn’t stand a chance, and that Clinton was a shoo-in.
Alison Morrisroe, Lille : ‘If Le Pen is president it would not be a country where I would like to live and bring up a family’
I have been living in France for the last four years, where I work as an English teacher at the University of Lille. Last night, I waited up anxiously for the final election results reading the live feed as they came in, department by department. This election is hugely important to me for many reasons. Firstly, as my partner is French we would like the option of being able to live in Ireland or France in the future. We love the free movement of people in the EU and are afraid of what could happen if Le Pen is elected. My partner is a social worker who works with marginalised people, namely addicts and asylum seekers. His entire line of work would be jeopardised if the Front National got into office. He would be heartbroken and already feels let down by the French people.
Secondly, I am about to move back to Ireland to do a Masters in International Relations. I would be extremely interested in working in Franco-Irish relations after my qualification and am fearful of the complete deterioration of French- European relations if Le Pen were to win the second round. I love France as a country but if Le Pen is the next president, it would not be a country where I would like to live and bring up a family. Needless to say, I support Macron and feel strongly about the unity of Europe with France a part of it.
Sheila O’Sullivan, Vannes: ‘Remaining in the EU is important for me, and my children’
I live with my French husband and our two children in Vannes, a beautiful town on the southern coast of Brittany. I work as an English lecturer in Vannes Institute of Technology. Although I have been living and working here for 14 years and paying taxes, I am not entitled to vote as I don’t have French citizenship. I am going to apply for this in the near future so that I won’t miss out on the next voting opportunity. The mood in the run up to yesterday’s first round was tense. There was a general fear about another Trump/Brexit result. It was almost inevitable Macron would win ahead of Le Pen, although left-wing candidate Melanchon had gained a lot of momentum in the last few weeks. But people were very wary of the opinion polls.
It is going to be a tough battle, and Le Pen may still win over a large proportion of the electorate with her stance on immigration, especially in light of the recent terrorist attack in Paris. I still believe Macron should be able to win on May 7th. He may have help from the other candidates now, who are urging their supporters to vote against Le Pen and for him.
Many people are feeling disillusioned about the way the country is going, with the looming threat of terrorism and the European Union going through so many changes. Le Pen wants France to return to the Franc, and I think this would be a huge step backwards. Part of the reason I came to France was that it was in the EU and therefore easy for me to come and go easily. Remaining in the EU is important for me, but also for my children.
Fiona McCann, Paris: ‘Macron will win, but who will govern?’
I live in the outskirts of Paris, in the Val de Marne department, but I am a professor at the Université de Lille in the north of France. I don’t have French nationality even though I have been living here for 20 years, so I can’t vote in presidential or legislative elections.
If I had been able to vote, it would have been very enthusiastically for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the candidate of La France insoumise. He was the only candidate to put the future of the planet, ecology, and the ways in which economies and political structures need to be reconfigured at the heart of his political programme.
What has disgusted me in this election is the speed with which so many self-proclaimed left wing people I know fled to Macron when it became obvious that Mélenchon was in with a chance of winning. I have realised that many of these people are quite happy to pay lip service to left wing ideas, when in fact they are quite happy with the status quo.
I have three children aged 14, 11 and 9, and my husband, who is French, and I have talked with them a lot about these elections, politicising them from a young age, encouraging them to develop critical thinking. As a lecturer in Lille, where the National Front is prospering, I try to do the same with my students. I teach literature, but imparting knowledge is much less important than developing a critical eye, encouraging students to cut through the meaningless soundbites and rhetoric issued by politicians, but also the smokescreens erected by the media who systematically deform left wing ideas which might be in danger of shaking up media interests too.
Who would I vote for in the second round? As frustrated as I was not to be able to vote Mélenchon yesterday, I am glad I don’t have to vote on May 7th. A choice between neoliberalism and populist nationalism is not much of a choice. But it could have been worse: in a Fillon-Le Pen scenario, most people I know would have been unable to put either name in the urn. Macron will win, but who will govern? It is my hope that les insoumis will become a formidable opposition to whatever precarious coalition Macron cobbles together.
