A pearl of wisdom about the stock market, attributed to Henry Ford, runs something like: "When the shoeshine boy is telling me what stocks to buy, I know it's time to sell."
In the current sharp shock to sales of second-hand properties, I suspect a similar sentiment among the people who really know property. But, come the moment when prices have dropped sufficiently, they will be buying and not selling.
By people who "know" property I don't mean the standing army of fatigued economists from central casting, who pop up on TV coverage, with a soundbite about "future trends".
Mostly under-employed by banks, but with inflated salaries to get media coverage for the bank's mortgage products, these gurus have little of value to impart to the people who know property.
The function of the bank pundit, God bless their floundering innocence about property, is - as mentioned - to get a brand mention for their employer in the fiercely competitive media war that has been waged for the past years of the boom.
PR agencies are under hysterical pressure from their banking clients to get the guru onto the main TV news bulletins, where he/she will be captioned as being the chief or sub-chief economist of your promising bank.
Never mind that the latest "survey" or "new research" might not stand up to serious scrutiny. Property has been the new sex in news terms for a decade, which is a long time to keep it up but, hell, we're Irish and have a lot of catching up to do.
So runs the thinking. It would be a poor news editor who did not assign a reporter, at the drop of yet another "survey of property prices", to stick a mike in front of yet another prophet from your promising bank.
God help the unfortunate young PR trainee if the RTÉ news editor forgets to hold the caption on screen long enough to be recognised by those potential borrowers to whom the bank is pitching. I know whereof I speak, having been on the receiving end of said trainee's disconsolate wail, stopwatching her client on the main RTÉ bulletin and fearful of the reprimand from the banking client on the morrow.
It is to the national station's credit that it tries to vary the gurus and spread the exposure among the various lenders, who are vying to produce yet another newsworthy piece of (spurious) research which will get the required TV mention.
When I tell you there are literally billions of profits at stake here, you will understand the politics, and the spend on "research" comes out of the marketing budget! The invitation to lunch is a standing one, as is the pressure on the hapless PR staffs to cajole, persuade and - yes, sometimes, to genuinely convince a busy TV news editor of the news worthiness of their client.
When I tell you that one mortgage of €200,000 will be likely worth €500,000 to the bank over its average lifetime, you will understand. Multiply by the million of borrowers over the next few years and you can see why the banks are so keen to have their "economist" on air.
Crucially, these gurus are not directing their comments at the people who know property (PWKP).
The PWKPs, I suspect, are sitting back and doing their sums, at the latest twist of the market. Yes, prices of second-hand properties have stalled - and will plummet. Yes, the agents' boards are up so long, the birds will nest in them come the spring.
Maybe they'll ask McDowell to take down a few "For Sale" signs, given as he helped keep them up over winter and often finds himself up a ladder. Yes, the market is mesmerised by the great stamp duty debate. In spite of the best efforts of the industry, the buyers are holding off. And that, dear reader, is where the PWKPs come into their own. They do not need anyone to tell them when to move and buy at a discount. They will smell the moment as infallibly as the twitching nostrils of the ferret in the long grass. And the last to know about it will be your TV guru from your bank of promises.
