A lot done, more to do? Time to take another look at new lending rules

Sherry FitzGerald and DNG report almost static price growth in the capital in the final quarter of 2015

Central Bank governor Prof Philip Lane: to review mortgage lending rules in the summer. Photograph: Eric Luke / The Irish Times

The impact of the Central Bank mortgage lending restrictions in Dublin in particular is evident in the end of year figures for the leading estate agents. Both Sherry FitzGerald and DNG reported almost static price growth in the capital in the final quarter of 2015, with overall growth for the year coming in at about one per cent, compared with about 16 per cent in 2014.

In its residential property market outlook for 2016 published this week, DNG shies away from blaming the new lending restrictions entirely for the halt in price recovery, saying the low single digit quarterly growth had begun before the introduction of the new lending measures last year.

However it also suggests some modifications the new Central Bank Governor, Prof Philip Lane, might take into account when he reviews the lending rules this summer. Remedies include increasing the multiplier of salary from 3.5 to 4 and to increase the threshold for 90 per cent mortgages from €220,000 to €300,000. It is also asking the Central Bank to consider 85 per cent mortgages between the €300,000 and €500,000 price band and 80 per cent over that price.

The evidence would indicate that the mid-market (€300,000 to €500,000) is struggling as the supply of stock remains poor. The market remains dominated by cash buyers, while those who would like to buy in this bracket struggle to get mortgages.

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Renters came under more pressure as investors sought to sell properties (accounting for about 33 per cent of transactions according to Sherry FitzGerald), while on the purchase side, investors accounted for about 19 per cent of transactions. The result is less rental properties on the market and higher rents. Recent rent control measures and incentives for landlords may help alleviate this, but will do little to improve tenants chances of becoming homeowners given the lending requirements.