London Calling:Some prominent voices are suggesting that it's close to top-of-the-market time, writes Angela Pertusini.
It might be an exaggeration to say that the stormclouds are gathering but, in the skies above commercial property, there is the merest hint of a nip in the air.
First, there is the recent move by British Land to sell one of its Broadgate buildings for £400 million (€591 million). It is the first time since this tranche of land at the eastern edge of the City was redeveloped 15 years ago that the company has sold any of its holdings there - suggesting it might be trying to profit from this top-of-the-market moment.
Then there are the recent comments by Gerald Ronson, head of Heron International and routinely described as one of the country's canniest investors. "There can only be one ending," to the current boom he warned guests at a company lunch. "We will look back and talk about how obvious the signs were," he added citing yields that have fallen to an untenably low rate and property-funds run by Johnny-come-latelies who have only ever known a bullmarket.
His verdict was supported by the colourful investor, David Pearl - who in his 40-odd years as a property entrepreneur has bought everything from shopping malls to football stadia - and who, according to the Financial Times, wanted to know "why anyone is buying at 4 per cent yield?"
True, it's hard to become sentimental about car-parks and out-of-town warehouse facilities, so where should investment-hungry punters place their money?"
In the residential market, two events cause prickles of interest.
First, the announcement that Woolwich in south-east London will be included on the Crossrail map. Second, Nick Jones's soon-to-open private members' club in Shoreditch on the borders of the City and the East End.
Now Woolwich has always been defiantly resistant to gentrification (and I should know, I lived there for seven years). It feels inaccessible and cut off but, with a DLR station connecting it to Canary Wharf due to open in 2009, a cameo appearance in the 2012 Olympics (it will be hosting, ahem, the shooting) and now the prospect of Crossrail, surely it can't ignore the march of property improvement much longer?
Berkeley Homes thinks not, the company which has been indefatigably trying to attract buyers to its colossal Arsenal development at Woolwich, is guaranteeing the extra funds to bring Crossrail and, they hope, lots of investors and middle-class professionals with it. Away from the Arsenal, it's still possible to buy flats in the area for about £100,000 (€148,000) which suggests it's worth a try.
Meanwhile, Shoreditch has already had one boom when, in the late 1990s, it became synonymous with web-designers and Brit-artists. (The phenomenon was so postcode specific that anyone guilty of a silly haircut or overly-complicated trainers was branded a "Shoreditch Twat".) Then the internet start-ups shut down and the artists predictably moved to cheaper areas and Shoreditch's popularity waned - not helped by its persistent lack of charm.
The arrival of Jones should mark its renaissance. Founder of Babington House in Somerset and Soho House in London, he successfully exported the former to America (Soho House New York) and is now, confusingly, importing the notion back again. He sees parallels between Manhattan's meatpacking district and Shoreditch, and his Midas touch is bound to burnish the surrounding streets of his new premises and revive Shoreditch's popularity with its hibernating fashion victims.
For those barely able to contemplate paying their own mortgage, let alone able to find funds for investment purchases, the buy-to-let phenomenon is not wholly unattainable. Gumtree, a listings website, reports a 38 per cent growth in adverts for lodgers over the past six months as people let out their spare rooms in order to keep down costs. It also claims a 120 per cent growth in sofa ads - yup, that's right, if you don't have a spare room to profit from, you can always charge £30 (€44) a week to let a stranger sleep on your couch. Ten years ago unthinkable; currently a novelty; and, if the current boom continues, in a couple of years it will be entirely normal.