With all the talk of a reduction in economic growth and a corresponding slowdown in the pace of commercial and residential development space in Dublin, it is easy to forget that there actually still is growth in the Irish economy.
Correspondingly, there will continue to be demand for more working and living space for the foreseeable future. Dublin city will need to be ready to cater for that demand in the coming years. If we are going to be living in an era of reduced worldwide growth rates and tougher markets, then retaining existing businesses and attracting new ones is going to be a major challenge for all of us.
Creating the right environment for working and living is an essential element to sustaining the growth of a city. Dublin docklands is the obvious location to provide that environment and cater for that growth.
The latest population and labour force projections issued by the Central Statistics Office suggest that the Greater Dublin Area could see an expansion in population of a staggering 56 per cent in the next 30 years. The actual level of increase will depend on the National Spatial Strategy adopted and the success or otherwise of its implementation.
The bottom line is a dramatic increase in population, labour force, and demand for retail, leisure, industry and office accommodation in the capital. This will have major implications from the point of view of housing, transport, social amenities and infrastructure. These can be provided for in the most sustainable way through ensuring that the key resource of the Dublin docklands area is fully exploited. The provisi on of infrastructure, however is a critical issue that must be addressed before the potential of the Docklands can be fully realised.
It was generally felt that the EU's decision to force the Irish Government to drop tax incentives for commercial buildings in the docklands in 1999 would remove demand for new facilities in the area. However, this did not materialise due to the severe shortage of development opportunity in Dublin's central business district and the alternative opportunity offered in Dublin docklands. This opportunity becomes even more apparent when you consider the proximity of the docklands to the city centre in comparison to London's docklands.
The docklands is obviously the natural and logical extension to Dublin city, offering huge potential for development. The implementation of investment in transport infrastructure is critical to its development.
Fortunately, some of this has already occurred or will occur in the short to medium term including the opening of a new rail station at Grand Canal Dock; increases in rail capacity through the lengthening of platforms at Connolly and Tara Street stations; purchase of new rolling stock to increase capacity; Dublin Bus of an articulated service from docklands linking the area to Connolly, Tara Street and Heuston Stations; the development of a bus interchange to the rear of Connolly Station; a proposed railway station at Spencer Dock; the proposed extension of LUAS to the Point Depot; the construction of the £20m (€25.39m) Macken Street Bridge by 2004 and the construction of the Dublin Port Tunnel.
The most exciting transport proposal for the area is the extended DART System identified in the DTO's "Platform for Change" document. This would link the Maynooth line to the Kildare line via Spencer Dock, Pearse Station, St Stephen's Green and Heuston Station. This will also allow trains from the northern suburban line to serve the heart of the new docklands area. It is imperative that new development is facilitated by the early implementation of these high-capacity public transport facilities.
One of the recurring comments from occupiers is that the need for improvement in public transport and other basic infrastructure is true for all areas of the city. Many suburban office schemes have been developed prior to adequate services such as public transport, parking, shopping, leisure and creche facilities being in place. Dublin currently has the lowest unemployment rate in Europe at 2.6 per cent. In this environment, employees are choosing to work in the city centre, where all of the aforementioned services are available to some extent.
Demand for office space in Dublin city centre is still extremely strong. Development sites in the city centre are practically non-existent however and for this reason, the potential of Dublin docklands is particularly apparent.
The significance of mass transit is evidenced by the success of Canary Wharf in London. The 185-acre estate is now almost fully occupied, well ahead of the forecasts at the time of its inception in 1999 and rents are only 15 per cent lower than peak rents in the City of London. This could not have become a reality if public transport was not in place. The fact that the Canary Wharf Group has just brought an arbitration proceeding against London Underground seeking compensation for a failure to deliver a higher number of trains through Canary Wharf, proves the importance of public transport facilities to such developments.
In addition to being a commercial hub, the Dublin Docklands Development Authority (DDDA) envisages that the 1,300 acres under its control will also become an attractive residential location, counteracting the suburban sprawl that will inevitably worsen as the population increases in line with projections. If these population projections are accurate, incorporating high density, medium height buildings into the Dublin landscape will become a necessity.
Dublin Docklands offers scope for such medium-rise and high-density development.
The planning ratios proposed in the Draft Extended Custom House Docks Planning Scheme need to be more flexible to maximise the potential of the docklands. Last year, UK-based architects DEGW identified Dublin docklands as a possible location for tall buildings. Among their reasons for this recommendation was the view that the area will become a major transportation hub with metro, light rail, DART and bus connections. This highlights the fact that provision of transport links and infrastructural improvements must be maximised by the provision of complimentary density and land uses.
We can already see that the south docks have benefited in the short-term through proximity to high capacity public transport with the commencement of schemes by Green Property, Hardwicke and Danniger.
The Dublin Docklands Development Authority is to be commended for its efforts to promote the regeneration of this part of the city. In a city that suffers from a slow and tedious planning system, the adoption of "Section 25" planning powers in the docklands, enabling compliant proposals to begin construction in a matter of weeks, is to be welcomed. A large number of new schemes is planned for the area.
The table shows that there are only a small number of developments under construction in the docklands. Just under 59,456 m sq (640,00 sq ft) of offices and only 217 apartments have either commenced construction, have full planning or are ready to go. To put that in context, the office space would only accommodate one-third of the total take-up in the market in the last year alone. Therefore there is no danger of over-supply in this part of town for the foreseeable future, even in a market with fewer tenants in search of space.
You will also see from the table that there is potential from other schemes to provide over 278,700 m sq (three million sq ft) of offices and 4,600 apartments. However, lack of infrastructure will mean that many of these schemes will sit on hold. Now that we are moving into an era of more manageable growth, we should use this as an opportunity to create the right environment for development in the docklands.
The accelerated implementation of transport plans is paramount. We would suggest the implementation of Public Private Partnerships as a method of speeding up the process of putting the necessary transport links in place.
As the world economy slows, Dublin must be able to offer world class space for local and international occupiers who are getting ever more cautious with their expansion plans. In addition to good facilities around the M50 and its hinterland the docklands must be an anchor to the growth of the city.
Our city is gradually grinding to a halt. The docklands area offers a solution to some of the city's problems. However a greater effort must be made to encourage investment and development in this key location. The sustainable development of cities is dependent on linkages to transport networks, and public transport in particular. This opportunity is available in Dublin docklands. Let's hope we don't squander the opportunity.
Ronan Webster is a director of Insignia Richard Ellis Gunne