By now everyone knows about the Euro and that the new currency is worth IR£.787564. But what about its effect on property?
Bearing in mind that 20 odd years after metrication property people still talk about sq ft (including myself), it is going to be a big shock to the system to have to talk in terms of Euro's per sq ft. I can exclusively disclose that £1 per sq ft equals €13.678 Euro's per sq m, which makes everything sound very expensive.
The long-term effect of the Euro on the property market is, however, far more serious and far reaching.
The single currency takes the risk of devaluation and interest rate differences between Euro countries out of the investment equation. From now on German or Italian property investors can invest in Ireland with relative ease, as many of the largest risk factors - currency changes and interest rate hikes - have now been taken out of play.
Because of the rapid economic growth in Ireland and the outstanding total returns on property (nearly the highest in Europe at the moment), these investors will be keen to find opportunities here because their domestic property markets are under-performing in relation to ours.
Couple the risk factors being taken out of the equation with our long-term leases, and you have spelled out a situation where Irish property is likely to be the focus of attention by foreign institutions and property companies both from within Europe and from the USA.
Where does this leave the Irish property investor? In the scenario outlined above, they are going to have intense competition (even more than now) for prime property investments in Ireland. This leaves them with the opportunity to diversify portfolios in other European markets that are likely to show prospects of rental and capital growth in the next three to five years.
Initial focus is likely to be on Paris where the market is entering a recovery phase after a prolonged recession. Amsterdam has posted steady and consistent results over the past few years and will also be attractive to Irish investors as indeed will Germany, when the market there improves.
In the overall sense, Ireland has ceased to be an independent market for equities, gilts and property and is now part of a Europe-wide investment scene. This has its pluses and minuses. Money is likely to move around Europe looking for the best opportunities. Capital could come to Ireland now but if the market became overheated, it would leave just as quickly. This is likely to be the result in more volatile markets throughout Europe.
Opportunities for specialist European investment funds will increase as investors seek to invest in specific sectors of the market across the Continent. An example would be a European offices fund with prime buildings in major cities across Europe. There will also be scope for country-specific funds to enable investors focus on a particular state with the best growth prospects.
Since property markets in different countries will compete for investment, letting terms are likely to converge eventually with perhaps a standard 15-year lease. Entry and exit costs will become standardised and hopefully stamp duty will level out at below our very high rate of 6 per cent.
The players in the market themselves are likely to change. Some of the major players in the Irish investment market are banks and insurance companies, who are likely to be the target of take-overs by much larger European and US entities, controlled or based outside Ireland. Witness the recent speculation about a takeover of AIB.
It is a brave new world. We had better forget English and start to learn French and German or even American!
Ian French is chairman Hamilton Osborne King