Publicans trading up, getting out, retiring - the 12 to 15 pubs currently on the market in the greater Dublin area are being sold for a variety of reasons.

KCR House in Kimmage, Bar 22 and The Wicked Wolf in Blackrock, O'Briens in Ranelagh, the County Club in Churchtown and Parnell Park House on the Malahide Road are just five of those on the market. But could it be that those quitting the business are doing so while premium prices are still being achieved rather than risk staying on and facing an uncertain future?

One market insider, who declines to be named, believes that a combination of factors is behind some publicans' decision to leave the trade. The most obvious one being that autumn is traditionally the pub selling season, and as a cooling of what has been an overheated market is predicted, some are bailing out now to take advantage of the high prices still being achieved.

With high overheads and substantial rents per sq ft in the city, some pubs have been experiencing tighter profit margins in recent times.

"Operating costs have been going up, the unions have negotiated a pay deal for bar workers which has driven up staff costs and the price freeze on drink has meant a limited growth in turnover for some," according to one estate agent.

The reformed licensing laws have been another driving factor for some - particularly the new provision which creates a nationwide single licence area. This makes it possible to transfer a licence in a rural area or town or village to a major centre of population.

"It has freed up the movement of licences around the country, so it means the possibility of an increase in the number of new pubs in certain areas - and an increase in competition. In theory, you could bring a licence from Ballygobackwards to Grafton Street, if you can satisfy certain economic requirements, if the area can take a new pub and if you are a suitable person. In practice, the difficulty is trying to find a suitable site for a pub."

Another auctioneer, Tony Morrissey of Morrissey's, says that in some cases publicans are retiring and their children do not want to carry on the mantle of the family business.

"Historically, pubs have been family run and passed down to a second and third generation - but it's rare to see that now. The next generation don't want to go into the trade. Their friends are earning £50£60,000 in the information technology game and they see that they would be working very hard in the pub for nowhere near that salary. Staff costs are jumping through the roof and that's when you can actually find staff to do the work. They might say to themselves `Do I need the grief?' " But for some publicans, leaving the business could not be further from their minds. According to John Ryan of Gunne auctioneers, the extended trading hours have ushered in a new era - one that many want to capitalise on.

"There is a period of change going on in the trade. The extension of opening hours has some deciding that a new chapter is beginning and they want to progress and trade up to a bigger premises." For the bigger, more successful operations the financial rewards can be considerable. Morrissey's 1999 review of the trade reported "Ratios which normally brokeback between 1.3 times and 1.75 times net turnover were replaced in 1998 by ratios ranging from 2.75 times net turnover, and in 1999, ratios were more in the order of 2.25 to 3.25 net turnover." (The report points out that this is where property is in good repair.)

Last year, 45 pubs changed hands on the Dublin market with a capital value of £86.89 million compared with 1998 levels of 54 pubs with a capital value of £89.9 million. In the first half of this year, 26 pubs were sold and there are currently 12-15 pubs on the market. Many of these are suburban pubs which have achieved, in some cases, spectacular prices due to high demand, a scarcity of sizeable, well-located stock, lower interest rates and capital gains tax of 20 per cent.

The Four Provinces in Ranelagh sold privately last year for £5 million, the highest price of 1999. The Blue Haven in Templeogue, a reasonably small pub, sold for about £3 million. This year, the Millennium Bar in Swords sold for £4 million and Fitzpatricks in Terenure sold for in excess of £3.5 million.

The nationwide single licence legislation may have a positive impact in "under-pubbed" parts of the city like Tallaght, which has a population of over 60,000 and only 11 pubs and Clondalkin, which has a population of over 40,000 and only 10 pubs. (In Mayo, there are 614 licences for a population of over 111,000.) However, planning permission has been a major obstacle in some city areas. Dublin Corporation's planning department annually turns down a number of planning applicants for new licensed premises on the basis that the areas are already well catered for, or do not conform with the planning and development of the area. "There are 750 pubs in the greater Dublin area and I don't think we are going to see 1,000," says Tony Morrissey. "The planners want neighbourhood pubs that are about 2,000 to 3,000 sq ft and stuck in the middle of a housing estate. The publicans want somewhere on the periphery of two or three estates.

Exorbitant pub prices in the capital mean that first-time publicans will often buy outside of Dublin, where it's possible to get a pub for £500,000 to £800,000. Jimmy McEvoy of Colm McEvoy auctioneers says that people no longer want to give a lifetime commitment to the trade. "People don't look at it as being as long term as they would have done in the past. Pubs are changing hands more frequently. Time was when they were mostly family run businesses but now there are a lot of consortiums, partnerships, and publicans running three to five pubs. It's becoming easier to run a few pubs at a time with modern management structures and improved technology."

The fact that sole traders have been forced to look outside Dublin has had a spin off in some regions in terms of prices. There has been increasing interest in pubs in counties adjoining Dublin: the Molly Malone of Glenroe fame in Kilcoole, for example, sold for £1 million, The Paddock in Naas for £2.6 million and the Vevay Inn in Bray for £3 million.