The motor industry and the National Roads Authority (NRA) have cast doubt on predictions that car ownership may surge to 3 million over the next 15 years.
NCB stockbrokers, in a major analysis of the Irish economy between now and 2020, said last week it was a "distinct possibility" that car ownership could reach such levels. The report, 2020 vision, says an ownership rate of 558 cars for every 1,000 people is possible by then, bringing rates here above that in Germany and closer to high rates in the United States.
"This would mean more than half the population would own a car by 2020, a not implausable situation," the report says.
"We put our best estimate of the likely car population in 2020 at about 3 million ... compared to less than 1.6 million in 2004," it adds. The report says population could exceed 5.3 million in the same period.
But the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (Simi) described the findings in relation to car ownership as "crazy".
"I can't see it getting anywhere near that here," chief executive Cyril McHugh said. "We still have a driver gap from the emigrant population.
He agreed the ownership rate would increase "because of propsperity, affordability and increased employment" but believes it will most likely reach 450 cars per 1,000 population by 2020, giving us a similar rate to Scotland.
He pointed out that in rural areas "you need a car to get to and from work, even in Dublin you need a car to get to and from work." But he added: "In our greatest period of growth, the last 15 years, we've gone from 27 per 100 population to 37."
"I don't think there is a possibility of going to 55 per hundred population."
The NCB report also suggests major public transport initiatives now in the building or planning stage will not reduce the car population as drivers will be attracted to a completed motorway network, which is continuously being expanded.
The completed motorway network, linking the State's major urban centres, will "facilitate longer journeys to work, which are already rising sharply" and will therefore negate any decrease in traffic when public transport initiatives are finished.
The report says that NRA projections for car traffic growth "appear conservative". The NRA predicts a 44 per cent rise in car numbers by 2021, compared to an 89 per cent increase by 2020 predicted by the NCB report. NCB believes the shortfall "could have significant consequences for infrastructure".
But the NRA defended its estimates, contained in its Future Traffic Forecast 2002-2040 report, published in 2003. That report suggests there will be 2,455,164 cars on the road by 2041, well below the NCB prediction of 3 million by 2020.
An NRA spokesman said: "We have taken all the appropriate steps, within reason, to design and build roads to meet Ireland's future demand."
He said a new census was being carried out shortly and they would amend their estimates if necessary, based on its findings.
The spokesman also defended the Authority's record on the M50 where original planning was for 45,000 vehicles a day rather than the almost 100,000 that use the road today.
