Claims that electric vehicles are the way of the future haven’t got every industry insider convinced
THERE IS a rich irony in the fact that one of the biggest car manufacturers in the world, and the company that killed off the electric car exactly 10 years ago, this week trumpeted the advent of mass production of electric cars as the way of the future.
General Motors’ (GM) green model line-up was rolled into the halls of the North American International Auto Show in Detroit in a parade led by the Governor of the state of Michigan, Jennifer F Granholm, and a cheerleading group of nervous GM employees. “We’re electric. We’re here to stay,” their waving placards read.
Electric-powered motoring was the dominant theme of the show, with virtually every manufacturer extolling their new green credentials.
GM was followed by Ford and Chrysler, both announcing the arrival of mass production electric vehicles. Ford plans to introduce a plug-in Focus-sized car in 2011. This car will travel 100 miles on a single charge. Another hybrid model in the pipeline is said to deliver city consumption of 41 miles to the gallon, a previously unthinkable statistic in the US.
GM plans to start selling its Chevrolet Volt, a plug-in hybrid, at the end of next year, and says the car will produce zero emissions for journeys up to 40 miles. Given that three out of four Americans have a daily commute of between 30 and 40 miles, the gas guzzler era seems to be finally over. Or is it?
While the industry claims to have faced up to its greatest environmental challenge, it also acknowledges that its eco-friendly journey will be neither fast nor cheap. Petrol prices have gone way down in the US and people are not spending; sales of hybrid vehicles have dropped significantly. Electric cars will be at least one-third more expensive than conventional cars.
Lutz acknowledges the problems presented by his industry’s ambitions. “It is a case of: ‘If you build it, will they buy it?’
He went on to indicate that tax breaks will almost certainly be a pre-requisite for convincing people to buy these cars.
None of the companies would confirm prices for their new products, but they will be an expensive option, which is why manufacturers are not quite ruling out more conventional options. BMW is dipping its toe in the water with an electric Mini programme in America and is the first company with a fleet arriving on the road this year.
“I wouldn’t say it’s the only solution. There will still be a role in the future for gas and diesel,” says Jim McDowell, head of Mini in America.
“I will believe all this stuff about all-electric cars when I see them in big numbers on the roads. I think that is a very long way away, though,” is the view of one of his BMW colleagues.
Lithium ion batteries are big and expensive, a fact acknowledged by Ford’s chief executive officer, Alan Mulally.
A recent industry report suggests hybrid vehicles will account for 10 per cent of production by 2012 – and it will be another 12 years before electric cars have a firm hold.
It is also worth remembering that when GM killed off the EV 1 in 1999, its fate was sealed by the accountants. In these uncertain times it might be a case of history repeating itself.