The portents for 2003 are, like most portents, threatening and unpredictable. Nevertheless Michael McAleer tries to make sense of them
Choose your poison: a bleak punitive budget, a double-dip recession, Saddam Hussein and his hidden treasures, price harmonisation that will cause car prices to rise according to the industry or fall according to the Competition Authority - and a great big oil slick roaming Europe's western seaboard.
So, in the midst of all this doom and gloom, spare a thought for the poor car salesmen who must crawl from their beds this Christmas and put on that happy smile as they prepare for the busiest month of their year. Well, perhaps not.
If there is anything that may shake them from their slumber it may be predictions of a 5 per cent rise in sales. However, it would seem the real battle in the industry, after years of overall growth, will be for market share.
As to price changes following EU competition law changes, Dr John Fingleton of the Competition Authority has argued that prices will fall due to increased openness in the market for dealers to buy their cars abroad, and reductions in repair and servicing costs.
The Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) vehemently deny this, saying prices will rise. According to SIMI's Mr Cyril McHugh, the new Block Exemption regulation will force a harmonisation of pre-tax prices in Europe and the likelihood is that these will settle at the prices in one of the larger markets.
Mr McHugh said that Goodbody Economic Consultants estimated that harmonisation at the German prices, which on average are 8 per cent above Irish levels, without a reduction in VRT, could reduce new car sales in Ireland by 9 per cent.
At present pre-tax prices here are between 80 to 90 per cent of the price in Britain and similarly lower than German prices, according to European Commission figures.
They sell over 3.5 million cars in Germany per year, over two million in Britain, France and Italy. In Ireland they sell 160,000 cars. This would seem to suggest they are unlikely to cut prices in the big markets or bring them into line with the smaller ones.
However, Pat Kenny, senior economist with the Competition Authority, questions the figures on which these estimates are based.
He says that, while there is no sensible pattern in car prices across Europe, "if you look at the top 70 per cent of models sold in Ireland, on average there are six cheaper markets within the EU."
Kenny also says that concentrating on the cost of new cars is misleading. "More important is the total cost of ownership that includes repair and servicing. It's here that the new rules that free up parts and servicing contracts will have the greatest impact."
If the Authority is right and dealers choose to carry a variety of marques, no longer tied to the one brand, they may decide not to carry the entire range from each marque and become simply a "family car dealership" or a "supermini dealership". If this were the outcome it may force manufacturers to reconsider their increasingly large range of models.
So, what else have we to look forward to? Well, there is a raft of new models coming our way and, for those for whom price is not really an issue, there are some mouth-watering entrants in the powerful roadster, coupé and executive categories. As the world worries about global warming, car manufacturers are bringing out faster models with larger engines. The power race is on.
As to the mundane matters of roads, infrastructure, speeding et al, the reconstituted Department of Transport marks its first six months in operation next week trying to implement the profusion of proposals issued by Seamus Brennan. The coming year will see how successful it is in grappling with the details of the broad proposals.
Finally, to the National Safety Council (NSC) advertisements, and the recent controversy over an TV advert which featured a Renault Megane. After the public intervention of Renault's Bill Cullen, the advert has been changed and the car made less recognisable with adjustments to the appearance of the front grille and rear of the car.
This is not the first time the NSC has amended an advert. An earlier poster campaign to promote the wearing of seat belts was going to be a little risque. Featuring two couples sitting on deckchairs at the beach, the aim was to run it with a slogan "you are naked without a seatbelt". Hence, the models were topless, covered merely with a seatbelt.
However, a rethink by the NSC meant swimwear was drawn onto images of the models.
A case of the NSC playing it very safe.