The media love a good scare story. Some claim that childcare harms our children. Others warn we shouldn't eat GM crops. And some others say global warming is causing natural disasters. But often the coverage far overstates the actual risk. Shane Hegarty assesses the realities behind the headlines.
VIDEO GAMES ARE BAD FOR YOUR KIDS
The scare Can there be an ailment more symbolic of the 21st century than the dreaded "Nintendo grip", a repetitive-strain injury caused by playing too many "video games"? Some research suggests that playing computer games for long periods can also increase aggression, diminish concentration and affect social skills. One study reported that teenage students were 25 per cent less aggressive after cutting down on TV and electronic games; their bullying behaviour also halved. In August, a US teenager was jailed for a murder he says was inspired by Grand Theft Auto.
Should you panic? Game-playing kids might be at risk of obesity, but games can also enhance problem-solving skills, reaction times, hand-eye co-ordination and even direction-following ability. Game players also solve puzzles more quickly, and games' often-complex narratives can stimulate their imaginations. Prof Mark Griffiths of Nottingham University recently claimed that ill children benefit from the distraction of computer games, as do children with attention-deficit disorders, and that while claims of aggression among regular players may hold water, those children may have underlying issues in the first place. "On balance, there is little evidence that moderate frequency of play has serious adverse effects," he said, "but more evidence is needed on excessive play and on defining what constitutes excess in the first place."
IRELAND IS A TARGET FOR TERRORISM
The scare The use of Shannon International Airport by US troops makes the Republic a legitimate terrorist target. People in this country have already been linked to the plot behind the 9/11 attacks, and the Government admits that it is keeping watch on several people. Known terrorists have spent time here, and there is a fear that young Irish Muslims might be radicalised. Although we may notionally be neutral, to religious fundamentalists there is no such thing as neutrality.
Should you panic? So far, other targets have either been involved in the "war on terror" (Spain, Britain) or are countries where westerners have "intruded" on a Muslim population (Indonesia, Egypt, Morocco). "We've seen that London was a likely target, as Paris and Rome could be, for example," says Maura Conway, a lecturer in conflict and international security at Dublin City University. "If a terrorist group wish to make a big splash in the media, which is clearly one of their goals, then carrying out some kind of spectacular attack in one of these cities makes more sense than carrying out one in Dublin." What about Shannon? "In terms of some kind of successful attack, measured by media coverage and its having immediate resonance with the public, I don't think that seeking to explain an attack on Shannon would make much sense." People have a tendency to worry about how an attack might target them, even if the closest target is unlikely, she adds. "I would be more concerned that, with a relatively open border with the UK, Ireland could be a good base of operations for terrorists."
CHILDCARE DAMAGES YOUR CHILD
The scare They are the generation being brought up by strangers, dropped off by their parents at 8am and not picked up until 6pm. A British study of 1,200 children recently concluded that under-threes who go to creches are more likely to be stressed, sad and aggressive - and do worse in developmental tests - than those cared for by their mothers.
Should you panic? Dr Penelope Leach, who led the research, emphasised that the results were not simply a call for children to return to their mothers; they were also a call for better childcare. A similar 15-year study in the US showed that the difference between the two groups of children was extremely small, although it did exist.
Dr Eilis Hennessy, who lectures in developmental psychology at University College Dublin, says most research suggests we should have no concerns about children in good-quality creches. "One of the difficulties we have in Ireland is that a lot of the time we're taking data from other countries. In some states in North America the childcare is of notoriously poor quality, with nothing like the kind of measures that we have, by way of regulation, to ensure that you get an adequate adult-child ratio or adequately trained caregivers, which are two of the key issues." As for aggression, Scandinavian research shows creche children can be more assertive. "Assertive and aggressive: where does one start and the other begin?" asks Dr Hennessy. "A lot of it is a value judgment. In any group setting you will find levels of aggression in children, particularly young children. They don't have the social skills to sort out the problems in any way other than by grabbing stuff."
BIRD FLU WILL KILL MILLIONS
The scare Tens of millions of birds have been killed in Asia because of avian flu, whose most virulent form, H5N1, has killed more than half of the humans it has infected. Contrast this with Spanish flu, which hit after the first World War. It killed only 5 per cent of its victims but was still responsible for 50 million deaths. The United Nations has said bird flu could claim between five and 150 million lives. H5N1 has now reached Europe, amid fears we could yet see a pandemic of biblical proportions.
Should you panic? While statistics suggest it is extremely deadly, it can't yet be passed from person to person, and so far the human cases have likely come from close contact with infected poultry. You cannot catch it from eating infected chicken. And even if it does mutate, it won't necessarily become more potent. Preparations are being made across the globe, however, as much on the basis of being safe rather than sorry.
"It is definitely something we have to worry about," says Dr Darina O'Flanagan, director of the Health Protection Surveillance Centre. "The problem is that it's surrounded in uncertainty. We know an epidemic will come; the only thing is, we don't know when. We don't know if it will be this particular virus or not." The more outbreaks, the more chance of infection, and the more chance that avian flu will mutate into a new form of the human virus. "No one can say for definite what's going to happen, but we know for definite that we should be getting prepared."
FLUORIDE IN DRINKING WATER DOES AS MUCH HARM AS GOOD
The scare Fluoride in drinking water, supposed to keep our teeth in tip-top shape, is causing widespread dental problems. Compare this to Northern Ireland, where without fluoridation there is three times less fluoride damage to teeth than in the Republic. We don't get a choice about whether it is put in our water, say critics, but it is steadily poisoning us by carrying a substance that can cause serious ailments.
Should you panic? In 2002 the Government-appointed Forum on Fluoridation recommended that the level of fluoride added to water be reduced from the present level of 0.8-1ppm (part per million) to 0.6-0.8ppm. The Government has been slow to do this, but it promises that legislation is forthcoming.
The Republic has seen an increase in fluorosis, a mottling of the teeth caused by excess fluoride, but links to greater ailments are still debated, even if the claims - cancer, Alzheimer's, bowel illness and more - make good headlines. A study of the teeth of 19,950 of the island's children and adolescents found that children in the Republic, where water is generally fluoridated, had less tooth decay than children in Northern Ireland, where water supplies are not fluoridated.
A COCAINE EPIDEMIC IS SWEEPING THE COUNTRY
The scare A study by the National Advisory Committee on Drugs (NACD) and its Northern Ireland counterpart says cocaine has become almost as popular as ecstasy across most of the country - which would make it very prevalent indeed. The NACD and the Garda believe we may be on the verge of an epidemic, with the alleged recent discovery of a crack-cocaine factory showing that it is here in its most dangerous form. The previously expensive drug has also come down in price, and the number of Garda seizures has risen eightfold in four years.
Should you panic? It depends how you define an epidemic. "Epidemic is a very emotive term," says Dr Eamon Keenan, a consultant psychiatrist with the Drug Treatment Centre Board. "What I would say is that there has certainly been a significant increase in the use of cocaine in Ireland over the last four or five years. Whether it has reached epidemic proportions? It's too early to say that yet."
Although 5 per cent of 15 to 24-year-olds have used it at some stage, 20 per cent have used cannabis - yet there is no talk of a cannabis epidemic. "It has certainly increased, and is prevalent among young people, but the number of people presenting for treatment would be much smaller," says Dr Keenan, who emphasises that crack-cocaine seems increasingly prevalent in some urban pockets and that State support for dealing with cocaine addicts falls far short of that for dealing with heroin.
GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROPS ARE DANGEROUS
The scare By playing God we risk health problems, genetic pollution and poisoned wildlife. By rushing GM crops into the shops, we are putting ourselves at risk of unanticipated allergic reactions. And cross-contamination could lead to wild crops mutating, most obviously through strains of "superweeds" resistant to herbicides. As well as this, most GM crop funding is tied in with big business, keen on profit rather than the public good.
Should you panic? Even the EU is divided. Bans enforced by environment ministers are opposed by the European Commission, which believes there is no evidence that GM crops damage health or the environment. Research claiming it might be bad for us is fragmentary, with several studies saying that they are unlikely to be any more dangerous than conventional ones. The scientists behind the recent "superweed" discovery were far calmer than the journalists reporting it, saying the risk of environmental impact was minimal. Advocates for GM argue that it could lead to the reduced use of pesticides and herbicides and increased nutritional values. All of which is potentially true, but when food-aid reliant Zambia refused 18,000 tonnes of US GM maize (even though millions of Americans have apparently been eating it without problems), it showed how deep the distrust goes.
MOBILE PHONES DAMAGE YOUR HEALTH
The scare There remains a lingering fear that, every time we answer a call from someone telling us they're on the train, we're damaging our brains. Various studies have said that mobile phone users are more likely to develop brain tumours, notably on the sides they hold their phones to. Tests on rats have shown that short exposure to mobile-phone radiation damages brain cells and may even trigger Alzheimer's.
Should you panic? Millions of us clearly don't, given that the Irish are among the planet's busiest users of mobile phones. The problem is that mobiles are still a recent invention, and relatively little research has been done on humans. In Britain, an independent report concluded that the radiation beamed to the phone may be harmless but that we just don't know yet. It's best, it concluded, to take a precautionary approach, especially with children, whose brains are still developing. "I have got a grandchild of four and a grandchild of two, and I would not be recommending that they have mobile phones," said the report's chief scientist, Sir William Stewart.
HURRICANE KATRINA IS PROOF OF GLOBAL WARMING
The scare The evidence is clear: warmer water means stronger hurricanes. In the US, a record 33 hurricanes struck between 1995 and 1998. More importantly, one study has shown that hurricane winds have become 50 per cent more ferocious in the past 50 years. Viewed alongside other severe weather, Katrina proves that global warming is having a major impact.
Should you panic? A bad year for hurricanes doesn't exactly prove a long-term trend. The numbers might be up in the US, but they have fallen in other parts of the world. "Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were severe events, and, as in the case of all severe events, people want explanations. It is very easy to invoke global-warming theories to satisfy this desire," says Dr John Tyrrell, a climatologist at University College Cork. US research has suggested that hurricanes come in cycles, and, following a quiet 1970s and 1980s, things are busy again. Although many areas of the Atlantic have been particularly warm this year, Dr Tyrrell says "there is no clear link to the role of greenhouse gases in causing this". Besides, ocean temperature is only one of a range of complex interacting factors needed to trigger a hurricane. "There is much yet we do not know about hurricane formation. To say they are a product of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is speculative in the extreme."