The results of the 2021 Sign of the Times survey by Behaviour & Attitudes are published by The Irish Times today. The annual snapshot of Irish life combines quantitative and digital qualitative techniques with B&A published data on the economy, health, working and shopping. The research was conducted in January and February 2021.
The question we have most frequently been asked by our clients over the last year is: which of the trends that emerged during the pandemic will prevail post-Covid, and which will dissipate and eventually disappear?
To even begin to consider this question, we first need to draw a distinction between trends that are genuinely “new”, and those that have simply become more pronounced as lockdown wore on. For example, the move towards online shopping, a shift towards working from home and deep concerns around mental health had all become more acute in recent years, with the pandemic merely serving to draw them further to the fore.
It also seems that the pandemic is far from over, with people’s future behaviour and attitudes as likely to be shaped by how the crisis is managed over the next 12 months as they are by their experiences over the last year.
For example, many assume that once society begins to open up, the economy will recover rapidly as consumer savings are unlocked. One of the more interesting findings of this year’s Sign of the Times study was the identification of a cognitive dissonance between rising consumer confidence due to increased household wealth, and a growing concern as to precisely how the Government is going to pay for all of the debt it has incurred in supporting the economy.
There appears to have been a significant shift in attitudes towards our health, and our openness with each other in discussing and managing it
Our interpretation of this dynamic is that people will need a clear articulation by politicians, the Central Bank and the ECB as to how Government debt accrued during the crisis will be dealt with in future years, before they can be convinced to part with their recently accumulated funds.
This is not to say that it is impossible to predict the effect of Covid-19 entirely, rather that it is not as clear-cut as some suggest.
Emergent trends which we feel are likely to continue in the longer term include people exploring their creative side as boredom prompted them to inject a sense of discovery and curiosity into the day-to-day, and a continuing prioritisation of technologically streamlined channels of interaction with product and service providers. There also appears to have been a significant shift in attitudes towards our health, and our openness with each other in discussing and managing it, and we would expect this move towards “total wellness” to continue.
Mini-exodus
Other predicted “trends” I am not so sure about. For example, there has been much commentary around an expected mini-exodus of city dwellers to more rural locations as people grasp the opportunity to work from home while at the same time enjoying an enhanced quality of life. In reality, our research suggests that while some may indeed abandon the urban rat race altogether, future homeowners are in fact seeking to settle in an area that has a mix of key facilities and amenities within their immediate vicinity, in anticipation of future rolling lockdowns.
Some aspects of our survey are a little more difficult to interpret. In particular, it was fascinating to note a significant year-on-year decline in levels of concern about environmental issues, the consideration of sustainability when shopping for certain products, and people’s willingness to pay more for products packaged in an environmentally friendly way.
We are inclined to attribute this phenomenon to what we feel is our finite emotional capacity for worry. In other words, when we become more worried about one “threat” it can simultaneously decrease worry about others – in this case, a profound preoccupation with the threat of coronavirus has displaced at least some of the angst around climate change and the environment.
The view expressed in our research is that inequality in <a class="search" href='javascript:window.parent.actionEventData({$contentId:"7.1213540", $action:"view", $target:"work"})' polopoly:contentid="7.1213540" polopoly:searchtag="tag_location">Ireland</a> has, if anything, widened over the last 12 months
The implication here is that as things begin to return to “normal”, the impact of climate change will re-emerge front of mind, with respondents identifying what they describe as a golden opportunity to encourage more consumers to “start off on the right foot” with regard to sustainability.
Another question we are frequently asked is what effect the crisis is likely to have on the post-pandemic political landscape. In considering this matter, it is worth casting our mind back to the last major crisis we experienced – that of the last great recession.
Healing process
When Behaviour & Attitudes spoke to members of the general public at the depth of that crisis, they consistently expressed the view that they expected the social and economic ills of the Celtic Tiger to be addressed once things began to improve, as part of a post-recession healing process of sorts. In reality, many people believed that what emerged over the years 2015 to 2020 was a widening of financial and social inequality, and it was this that prompted the 2020 vote for change.
Speaking to people again in March 2021 as they begin to envisage the post-pandemic world, it feels as if history is repeating itself. The view expressed in our research is that inequality in Ireland has, if anything, widened over the last 12 months. Different people express this opinion in different ways. Some point to one section of society having saved considerable amounts of money during lockdown, while others have lost their livelihoods entirely. Others refer to an exacerbation of the housing crisis as homebuilding ground to a halt, and more again are concerned with what they see as an accentuation of differences in the quality of health services available to those with private health insurance on the one hand, and those at the mercy of a by-now depleted public health system on the other.
We are of course a long way out from the next election, but it is already clear that the party or parties that successfully address these issues will emerge victorious, whoever that may be.
Ian McShane is executive chairman of Behaviour & Attitudes
